Financial Sense

What Are Technical Indicators Saying About the Market?
Sy Harding's picture

It was just a week ago that financial headlines bemoaned the market having suffered its worst week in 2 ½ years. The bears came out of hiding with scary forecasts. Plunging oil prices, previously thought to be a positive for global economies...

Russia’s Crisis Is Europe’s Crisis
Christopher Quigley's picture

Vladimir Putin would have been well advised to study the lessons of the Suez crisis before he invaded Crimea. Like Anthony Eden of Great Britain he is beginning to realize that economic warfare can be more ruthlessly destructive than military might.

Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increased Again in November
Doug Short's picture

The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for November is now available. The index rose 0.6 percent to 105.5. October was revised to downward 104.9 percent (2004 = 100). The latest number came in slightly above the 0.5 percent forecast by

Competitive Theories: “Deflation Warning” vs. “Inflation Is Nearly Everywhere”
Michael Shedlock's picture

Break-even rates are the difference between treasuries and the same-duration Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The break-even rate turned negative yesterday for the first time since 2009.

The Burning Questions for 2015
John Mauldin's picture

With two reports a day, and often more, readers sometimes complain that keeping tabs on the thoughts of the various Gavekal analysts can be a challenge. So as the year draws to a close, it may be helpful if we recap the main questions confronting investors and the themes we strongly believe in, region by region.

U.S. in a Sweet Spot!
Puru Saxena's picture

The world’s prominent central banks are pursuing an accommodative monetary policy and this bodes well for the stock market. Remember, when it comes to investing, monetary policy trumps everything else and the risk free rate of return determines the value of every asset.

Valuation Estimate of SP500 2015 Returns: 2,246 Target
Dwaine van Vuuren's picture

The RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) is a multifactor valuation model that examines cyclically adjusted trailing SP-500 earnings (various multi-decade horizons), the SP-500 total-return index level, total stock market capitalization...

Deflationary Indicators Yawn at Fed’s Growth Confidence
Danielle Park's picture

The jabbertalk parsers have rarely been in finer form than following yesterday’s latest Federal Reserve comedy hour. It is truly incredible to hear the Yellen-syllable analysis now engulfing the stock...

FOMC Recap
Tim Duy PhD's picture

Yesterday's FOMC statement was a reminder that in normal times the Federal Reserve moves slowly and methodically. Policymakers were apparently concerned that removal of "considerable time" by itself would prove to be disruptive.

China’s Pivot Toward Europe May Cut U.S. Out of Deal
Oil Price's picture

November 18, 2014: it’s a day that should live forever in history. On that day, in the city of Yiwu in China’s Zhejiang province, 300 kilometers south of Shanghai, the first train carrying 82 containers of export goods weighing more than 1,000 tons left...