Given how well the credit markets warned of the last two major turning points in the market I respect the message of the credit markets over the stock market when the two do not confirm each other, as they are currently.
We recently interviewed Avi Gilburt of ElliotWaveTrader.net, a widely followed metals and market analyst who is currently ranked as the highest "Opinion Leader" on gold and precious metals at Seeking Alpha. Here is a summary of his interview with Q&A below.
The standard way to make forecasts of almost anything is to look at recent trends and assume that this trend will continue, at least for the next several years. With world oil production, the trend in oil production looks fairly benign, with the trend slightly upward (Figure 1).
The July Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this morning puts the June year-over-year inflation rate at 2.07%, fractionally off last month's 2.13% 19-month high...
A spike in energy prices and sharply higher interest rates have been two of the leading causes for pullbacks in the past. Also, we need to pay close attention to quarterly earnings, which are currently coming in on the strong side.
There are two ways to double the number of transistors on a computer chip: Either make the chip twice as big — not an option for small electronic devices – or halve the size of the transistors.
A benign inflation reading and a slew of earnings reports provide a reassuring backdrop for today’s trading session, with stocks on track to reverse the prior days’ geopolitics-inspired pullback.
The euro slipped through the low of the year and the weekly trend line going back to 2012. However, it found bids near $1.3460 and has recovered a bit. The key on the upside now is $1.3500. A move above there and the technical tone can begin stabilizing.
One of the most notable things about bull markets is how they continually surprise you to the upside. Quite often investors will tell themselves “the market is overbought and has to correct,” only to find that it either doesn’t correct nearly as much as they expect or doesn’t even correct at all.
I recalled those words from my friend Shad Rowe, who is the eagled-eyed captain of the Dallas-based money management firm Greenbrier Partners, as I listened to Janet Yellen's testimony last week. Ms. Yellen was opining that the action in social media and biotech stocks is reminiscent of what Shad was warning about in Forbes magazine 23 years ago.
The answers to two looming questions are becoming clearer: Why have interest rates fallen? And is China actively trying to rid itself of exposure to the dollar?
- Bulls Take Notice - Caution Suggested as Credit Markets and Equity Markets Diverge
- Avi Gilburt: Gold Could Break Below $1000; Sees Sharp Decline in Stocks Before Final Top
- The Catalysts for a Correction
- China Buys U.S. Debt at Fastest Pace on Record
- The First Victims of the End of QE – Small Cap Stocks and Junk Bonds