|
Financial Sense Home l Market Monitor l Market WrapUp l Storm Watch l About Us l Contact Us |
||||
I figure that for today we'll take a look at some of what we call our "core indicators" as they apply to the SP500. 1. The first indicator we look at is the "Trend Indicator." At a glance it can immediately tell us if the intermediate trend is negative, positive, or neutral. It is comprised of two components: the 20 day trend, and the 10 day trend. If both of them are pointing in the same direction, the overall intermediate term trend for the market is of the same direction as well. As we can see from the chart below, both the 10- and the 20-day components are declining, which means that the intermediate term trend for the SP500, remains negative.
2. The second indicator we look at is the S25. The S25 is "composite" indicator that is made up of all the 25 indicators that are in our arsenal on a regular basis. If it is above zero, it means the plurality of the indicators are above zero, indicating a generally positive technical background. If it is below zero, it means the plurality of the indicators are below zero, indicating a generally negative technical background. Negative SI25 suggests the path of least resistance is to the downside.
3. The "Quantifiers" are a composite of our core indicators. They move from +26 to -26. These are not overbought/oversold oscillators. A reading of +26 means that the market's technical condition is as positive as it can be, and vice versa. In addition, it is great tool for predicting turning points and volatile moves. Those who follow our technical work know that when the Quantifiers have little or no change of two or more consecutive days, then within 1-3 trading days we get a move in the SP500 in excess of 1.5% and a move in NASDAQ in excess of 2.0% The Quantifiers are near the bottom of their range, which means that the path of least resistance is down. However, the pattern suggests that a tradable rally is near.
4. The fourth indicator we look at is the 10 day Buy/Sell Equilibrium index. It measures whether the "pressure" is on the buy side or on the sell side. The key thing with this indicator is divergence. If this indicator is not confirming the price action, then an abrupt change can take place at any time. We are looking for a rejection at the zero line and downside reversal.
5. The fifth indicator we look at is the "Thrust Oscillator." When we get a positive crossover, it means the markets are "thrusting" upwards. When we have a negative crossover, it means the markets are thrusting downwards. We are looking for a rejection at the zero line and downside reversal.
In conclusion, we expect lower prices as long as the SP remains below Monday's highs, and if it breaks below 1135, we would expect a further decline to 1105-1095. Ike Iossif All
charts are property of Aegean Capital Group, Inc.
|
||||
|
Home l Broadcast l Market Monitor l Storm Watch l Sitemap l About Us l Contact Us |
