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Alcoholics Anonymous View of US Financials In a previous essay on the subject in June, “US Financials as an Addiction System,” several important components to an addiction system were argued. The critical drug is debt, via credit supplied and encouraged by the Federal Reserve. The critical activity is gambling and financial speculation, from a smorgasbord menu of choices. The monetary drug dealer is the Fed Chairman Greenspan himself. The great enablers of credit are the Asian Central Banks who share their trade surpluses and consistently intervene on behalf of a USDollar rescue. The most prominent gambling tables are stocks and bonds in the financial markets, with futures and options for more experienced gamblers. Promotion is essential. The street drug pushers are the brokerage houses, whose critical printed advertisement revenue with the press & media assures a favorable message. The tell-tale physical symptoms of addiction, delirium tremens come as stock & bond bubbles and busts. Volatility warns of trouble ahead. No addiction system exists without a foundation of denial, based here upon deceptive USGovt statistical reporting and expert defense of overvaluation. Actual teaching of the public, indoctrination to be certain, has propaganda disseminated by the Fed Chairman and Governors, echoed by the financial pundits. A coherent argument can be made that large portions of the US Economy exhibit clear signs of parallel addiction manifestation. Our national indulgence has reached crisis proportions. Several addiction criteria will be reviewed as justification. Hazelden is recognized as a premier addiction treatment center in Minnesota. Their research work is cutting edge, quoted the world over. Elements of this essay are the result of downloads from their research center website. Numerous of their diagnosis & treatment criteria will be weighed and discussed from a clinical viewpoint toward the abuse of debt, as though our financial system is to be interrogated for inpatient treatment. The same questions will be raised which patients are confronted with, the critical criteria for behavior, relationships, and management of life. The reader can make his or her own conclusions. A deep irony exists. Sometimes, a psychologist will team up with an extended family to confront an alcoholic or drug addict. The procedure is called an “intervention.” Nowadays, foreign central banks conduct interventions, not to properly treat and address the debt abuse, but to encourage and sustain that abuse. As a result, one can appropriately conclude that the hospital is supplying controlled substances to the patients, and being cheered on by the hospital board !!! When it comes to social behavior, nothing is cut & dried, or clearcut. Interaction of people and their many systems can be extraordinarily complex. A criterion list helps to create a convincing mosaic, and thus can assist in the formulation of an overall perception. The result, at least to this writer, is somewhat alarming. In my opinion, our national addictions are in an advanced stage with debt, energy usage, drug abuse (illicit and prescription), fatty foods, and material consumption. We have lost our way. An active addict will mortgage away his future, for today’s gratification. He will sacrifice his children’s future, for maintaining his lifestyle. He will cheat and steal with little remorse, only rationalized justifications.
If debt addiction is deeply rooted, and evidence certainly points in that direction, then veteran treatment centers warn that three outcomes exist as final destinations for participants. The paths are clear, but the calendar and pace are not. Gamblers and debt abusers, much like alcoholics and drug addicts, find an ultimate endpoint in a cemetery, a prison, or an insane asylum. Time, rules, devoted energy, interplay, experience, and natural development lead to an outcome. As for the casino house and its fate, which in this case is the US financial system, the outcome is less studied and certain. Let some parallels be suggested. A dead player is no longer in the game, removed permanently, bankrupted and ruined. A jailed financial participant is rendered out of commission, much like a welfare case on state aid, a debilitated family member offered a room, or a homeless street bum seeking a sidewalk heat vent. Lastly, one might argue that investors, speculators, home owners, consumers, or business vendors are slowly driven nuts over time, gradually going crazy from frustration with a game geared toward house victory or foreign encroachment. The crazies might run all through the system, and in isolated areas might actually run the system. Eventually, the system itself will reflect the emotional instability, unhealthy makeup, and failed integrity of its participants. The house can be viewed as creditor banks at the local level, mortgage institutions as intermediaries, and government at the macro level. In the current situation, even the banks are threatened. In Japan the banks endured serious blows and were insolvent for years. Eventually, our banks will be in trouble from vast portfolios of underwater loans. With a USDollar collapse, the government would be threatened, much like Argentina, where the economic landscape has deteriorated into a feudal barter economy. Most economic experts were poorly taught during professional training, and sing in unison the party line. Still others simply fail to comprehend inflation, and regurgitate on cue. Their comprehension of debt as a vehicle to advance inflation is overlooked or minimized. It carries with it heightened dangers for the entire US Economy. Credit has exploded far beyond the sources controlled more so by the Federal Reserve. The ability to manage a debt burden has limits. Insufficient are the warnings of bankruptcies, failed businesses, strained households (even divorce), economic busts, and personal suicides that can come from debt abuse to the extreme. Such breakdown outcomes exist in parallel for alcoholics and drug addicts. A coherent argument can be made that large portions of the US Economy exhibit clear signs of parallel addiction manifestation. We seem to consume fatty foods without control. The parallel goes further, as Sport Utility Vehicles roam our roadways like urban Sherman tanks. They consume twice the gasoline of modest sedans. The size of new houses has increased noticeably in the last several years. Home heating and air conditioning costs are much greater for such properties. Lastly, the accumulation of furniture, clothes, tools, games, toys, memorabilia, sports equipment, odds & ends serves as material clutter in basements, attics, and garages. Anal retentive traits abound, which go hand in hand with addictive personalities. In a wholly parallel vein, sexuality has been used more openly and blatantly in marketing than ever before. It is difficult to buy cars, home appliances, televisions, broadband internet service, or cell phones without having to withstand steady displays of beautiful women employed by Madison Avenue advertising firms. Sex has become a central societal addiction. Appeal is made constantly to exploit it for the purpose of selling goods & services, in a style whose boldness grows by the month. Our national indulgence has reached crisis proportions. The common thread among many of these parallel consumption addictions is energy. It is my opinion that energy costs will pin prick the entire addiction system. It is our national Achilles Heel. As more money is directed to energy costs (home heating, electricity, gasoline) within consumer budgets, less is available for discretionary retail spending. CNN, CNBC, and the major networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox) compete for an audience, but fail to adequately warn our citizenry about the huge risks from added debt piled on, including cash extracted from home equity. Other cultures call that “burning your furniture,” which our culture celebrates. Network rivalry is healthy in the challenge of USGovt actions. Danger lies ahead for stocks, bonds, housing property, and debt balances if and when interest rates rise. Our networked media and press have inadequately warned of debt risks. Although not exploited to sell debt or financial securities, gambling casinos do contribute to people’s indebtedness. They have sprung up across the nation, in almost every single state, evidence of still wider addiction. INPATIENT ADDICTION CRITERIA Parents frequently submit their children to clinical testing and interviews in order to determine whether alcohol or drug abuse warrants professional treatment. So do family members for their relatives during interventions. Answer YES to a moderate number of the following questions, and one must conclude addiction is an integral part of behavior, whether substance abuse or debt abuse. Answer YES to a majority, and a severe addiction problem is in our midst. The financial structures with its attendant credit supplied, debt incurred, and risky investment opportunities will provide the backdrop from which to reply to criterion queries. In what follows, “IT” pertains to debt in a general sense, purchase transaction debt, debt securities as vehicles, interest rates as a valve, and diverse index values on a casino tally scorecard. No 12-Step Recovery Program will be offered. Be sure to know that genuine recovery will involve debt reduction, bankruptcy, recession (probably depression), restructure of bank lending practices, stock & bond market reform, central bank reform, new education on debt, and a tumultuous monetary crisis centered on the USDollar. Is it used habitually on a daily basis? Credit is indispensable grease to our everyday system. In past decades, the major stock indexes were not reported on television and radio anywhere as frequently as today. The Federal Reserve Chairman now meets with White House officials on a weekly basis, a critical participant in policy matters, as if the Secretary of Inflation or the Minister of Credit. The clandestine Plunge Protection Team has become a habitual offender to the equilibrium seeking process. It has shown its bailout signature at 10am and 3pm on countless days within a given year. Inflated housing prices have provided a foundation for households to feel comfortable enough to extend credit further, much like a basement food supply for winter, or a stocked liquor cabinet or wine cellar. Mortgage refinance, especially with cashout extractions, has become a dominant factor in consumer spending, both for essentials and items of a more frivolous nature. Credit card balances are routinely extended for consumer electronics, furniture, and other transactions. Not only is credit used daily by the public, it has seen the cost of money sharply reduced, thereby encouraging even more credit abuse. Remove the habitual usage of credit from the system for a single week, and the entire system will grind to a halt. Is its usage continued despite known harm to self & others? History is full of stories on the destructive effects of debt. The Great Depression is the most vivid extreme account. Telecom debt was a critical element in the 2000 stock bust. Both the system at a macro level and the firm at a micro level can suffer from debt abuse. Small businesses collapse on a regular basis from over-extension of debt, beyond the prudent growth requirements. Personal bankruptcy has touched many people’s lives, as almost everybody at least knows someone who has filed in a bust. Losing control of one’s credit cards is commonplace, only to hinder further spending. When household debt burdens become too large, the ripple effects to spending for necessities and pleasures like entertainment. They tend to operate within a straight-jacket. The harm of excessive debt is well known. Does it lead to trouble with the law? In 1971, the United States broke the law among the community of nations. It abrogated its promise to redeem USDollars with gold. That broke sovereign law, and stands in violation of the US Constitution. The Bretton Woods divorce stands as a watershed event, and has unleashed Pandora’s Box of irreversible de-evolution, not progress. Given the dominant role played by the US Economy, the victims, those nations with a trade surplus in USDollars, did not press the issue. Asians were beneficiaries of a bond bull market in the last decade, unlike the Saudi bagholders in the 1975 to 1985 period. All of our trade partners were coerced to join the same fiat currency game. In the autumn of 2003, the US Treasury reneged on immature long-term bonds and forced their recall. The high interest rate yielded by those bonds was replaced by a lower prevailing rate. That broke securities laws, but who can enforce such violations? The continuation of a debt-based economy, whose currency collateral has been relegated to a debt-backed bond, has resulted in an ongoing legal problem which to this day is unaddressed. Economic stress can and will lead to trade protection, and likely violations of international trade laws. The USGovt is a constant defendant in world courts for trade violations. Since offshoring of mfg jobs to Japan in the 1980’s and offsourcing of service jobs to Asia in the last several years, our economy has been forced to react to great stress. In many cases, we violate trade laws. A careful examination of underlying sources of the stress reveals the sources emanate from inflation-driven wages and the implied high costs of socialistic mandates, as much as from other root causes. Does it cause problems with close relationships and jobs? It has been said that three sources of conflict exist within a marriage: sex, children, and money. Rather than enter a thorny topic, let it be granted that a middle class squeeze is in progress. Its strain on finances, erosion of savings, growing debt burden, increasing costs to raise a family, runaway educational expenses, these have all contributed to problems. Too much time is also spent on the job at many work sites, both discussing stocks and the economy. Time spent cruising the internet along investment accounts and financial markets detracts from projects on the job. A wise man once told me that nothing kills a sex drive more than lost income or wiped out savings, for the victim or his/her partner. Leave it at that. Do we lie to protect our supply? Some may not recognize the posed question. A drunk will hide his vodka behind the tool cabinet in the basement, or in the toilet water tank, then lie. A drug user might purchase twice as much supply as he reveals to his wife, then periodically swap the stored supply. Wives will mark the whisky bottle with a felt pen, but only after turning the bottle upside down, so as to monitor consumption and catch the lie. Intervention in the financial markets, rescue operations by the Plunge Protection Team, might be the main lie to protect our system, even done under the guise of national security. Chairman Greenspan refuses to answer currency management questions to his oversight committees in Congress, which has the result of keeping Congress in the dark as to our gold supply collateral !!! The Fed denies monetization practices for Treasury bonds, despite evidence in that direction from its balance sheets, open market activity, and market response. The PPT denies regular bailout actions among S&P and Nasdaq100, despite repeated support at critical levels which render chart behavior as curiously irregular. Some wonder if large money center banks have been taken under the Fed’s protective wing, such as JPMorgan. The precedent for bailout was clear in 1998 with the LTCM, which both protected the New York banking system, but issued a reprieve to many wealthy people. Others wonder if Fanny Mae has taken its first step toward protection under the aegis of the Federal Reserve, no longer under the guise of Housing & Urban Development. The official position is one of denial. The USGovt has routinely deceived on economic growth, on consumer price inflation, and on job creation. They blatantly protect their supply of debt securities, for honest disclosure would jeopardize foreign credit supply. Do withdrawal signals lead to further usage in order to avoid that withdrawal? Late in the 1990 decade, the Federal Reserve embarked on a new path. It began to operate as underwriter to national emergencies, as the lender of last resort. Since the “irrational exuberance” speech, the need to underwrite accidents grew. The preceding year to that speech coincided with a new reckless policy whereby the Fed targeted money supply growth with consumer price inflation, not economic growth. Successive corrections to debt excess grow potentially larger with each new round. The Fed had underwritten Russian default events, and now has embarked on the largest credit extension on world history. The artificially low interest rates since November 2002 constitute the largest magnitude economic stimulus the world has ever seen. No, previous withdrawals did not result in more prudent credit management. It resulted in far greater excess, which has even been celebrated. So the dreaded requirement to extend further debt has become all that more acute, and cannot be stopped. The entire bond bubbles (Treasurys, mortgage, corporate) represent usage of debt extension to the EXTREME, in order to avoid the withdrawal from the 2000 stock bust. Only a fool would claim further usage has been withheld as a policy tool. Expect credit to extend at a parabolic rate in the future. Monetary ease is obvious on the fringes, with individual credit decisions. The credit usage and requirements have grown to such an extent that we have trouble at the monetary core. Our nation needs Asia’s savings and the surplus of oil producing nations. We need the world’s savings, or else the world economy will contract dangerously. Is there a marked tolerance, in which increases amounts are required to satisfy needs? A brief answer is offered. The bond speculation is estimated at $1 trillion in the last three years. Chairman Greenspan boasts of not repairing the stock bust itself, but rather dealing successfully with its effects. The new bubbles provide countervailing (or masking) monetary forces of a magnitude not seen before in modern history. At the household level, debt burden increases incrementally. New transactions often require a larger portion of debt to close the deal. Greenspan talks of easier debt burdens from reduced borrowing costs. Home purchases at exorbitant prices can be managed, since high balances carry lower service costs on mortgages on a per-dollar basis. If a household floats a large debt load, Christmas shopping can easily rack up added bills with large purchases on zero-percent finance deals. We see debt tolerance in spades. Does its usage lead to active sacrifice of ethics & integrity? The mere separation of money from gold and silver, as dictated by the US Constitution, stands as the quintessential sacrifice of integrity. Philosophers cite numerous examples where entire societies slide down a slippery ethical slope of lost morality, once the money is created. The national financial system is at risk, with 45% of federal debt purchased by foreigners. Roughly one third of mortgage agency debt is bought by foreigners. We are vulnerable to foreign financial attack. China has grown to become a rival, competing for raw materials and energy supplies. They do not share our national interests. The USGovt must maintain the notion of financial health, strong growth, and robust opportunity if we are to continue to attract $1.5 billion in daily capital infusion. Reported gross domestic product expansion, price inflation, and job growth are each exaggerated in what might be regarded as a conspiracy so as to keep credit supply flowing from abroad. Economic reporting represents a clear ethical violation. Chairman Greenspan and the Fed Governors serve as spokesmen. They operate as cheerleaders to financial markets, carnival barkers to keep the crowd of faithful passing through the market turnstyles, and managers of the Macro Economy Myth. Deceptive economic statistics deceive with false advertisements. Flexibility and wealth generation are the chairman’s catch phrases of unethical fraud. At risk is the integrity of our banking system and financial markets. In my opinion the process of integrity erosion is well along, and accelerated in the late 1990 decade, only to shatter amidst stock bust and fraud cases in the last few years. By the way, those cases have not ended, nor are they likely to end soon. Does its management steer most of life toward fellow addicts? The key players are clearly the Federal Reserve in the United States, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank. Throughout most of 2003, the BoJ has provided ample critical support in overnight bailout operations, ostensibly to protect their export economy. Almost every time that USDollar was threatened, the Japanese monetized (printed) more yen and purchased USTBonds in the open market. The Euro Central Bank used to be more involved with gold sales in support of fiat currency. The Washington Accord in 1999 broke with the past, as Europe served notice to the USA authorities that they had limits on the reckless gold sales. Minor similar roles are played by the Bank of England, the Royal Bank of Canada, and others. The People’s Bank of China is not so much involved with intervention as plain purchase support of US Treasurys, thus enablers whose motive is to preserve jobs and product export. It is unclear whether Japan and China are quietly accumulating the gold which is unwisely sold by western central banks and routinely dumped on the market. Without question, the Fed has least two giant fiat (addict) partners. The Euro Central Bank so far is the reluctant partner, slow to stimulate with low rates, unwilling to put their economy at risk with staggering inflation so readily embraced by US banking leaders. Thousands of hedge funds have grown into operation within the shadow of the casino. The gamblers work together on betting strategies. On a more personal level, investment groups attract members across the nation. In a similar manner, drinkers assemble at bars, lounges, in front of televised sport events, and at the 19-th hole of golf courses. Has its pursuit resulted in negligence of routine duties and general system maintenance? Interest payments on the federal debt have risen as a percentage of the federal budget on a consistent basis for over 30 years. In the last few years, borrowing costs have actually been manageable, since rates have come down after the stock bust in 2000. Budget surpluses have been laid waste by financial market change of winds, as much as by squandering with tax reform which resulted in negligible promised business expansion and job growth. Higher interest rates will change that bright ray of federal debt management quickly. However, tie in fixed govt expenses known as entitlements, such as pension costs (military, agencies, Congress, judicial, etc), and you have reduced government discretionary spending. Education has suffered. Extensions to unemployment insurance have been abandoned. Assistance to states on mandated security enhancements has not been provided. Available funds for multitudes of purposes have been squeezed. To be sure, entitlement and interest costs are kept down through lies and deception. Despite this, just like with a walking alcoholic or drug addict, budgets are strained for repair of the home and family car. An alcoholic’s car routinely has unrepaired dents and bruises. Is its usage greater than intended or planned, or usage more often than intended? When the Viet Nam war, OPEC oil price spike, and Lyndon Johnson “Great Society” all converged on the financial system, federal costs mounted. Richard Nixon closed the gold window and defied foreign holders of US securities by denying redemption of paper money for gold. In the process, our financial leaders were making a statement. They had full intention to expand our federal debts, to invest in our economy, and to allow greater usage of credit by citizens. It is difficult to accept the notion that USGovt leaders fully anticipated the magnificent extent to which national debts have grown. A recent study increased the federal obligation from $48 to $52 trillion. Repayment is impossible. The first $1 trillion came quickly on the federal ledger. Here we are at $7 trillion now, and building speed. Before the next term ends, with or without the current president at the helm, a national debt of $10 trillion is not farfetched. Hands off the Social Security Trust fund would guarantee creasing the $10T mark before 2008 ends. One can doubt that Nixon or Greenspan himself planned on so much debt existing within the US Economy. The Fed still acts as the world accident insurance underwriter. Who would have expected that an entire MidEast war would be financed on credit, or that a Medicare prescription drug bill be set in motion as baby boomers retire and costs rise fast, or that the Social Security Trust Fund be ransacked, or that $1 trillion would enter bond speculation in the last three years, or that mortgage refinance cashouts would be commonplace, or that triple zero deals would sustain consumer spending, or that debt would pay for a gargantuan trade gap? The wealth generation apparatus has been and will continue to be the manufacturing base, which is in the process of being abandoned, dismantled, and sidestepped. It is safe to conclude that debts have mounted more than one order of magnitude above what was intended. Our banking leaders have encouraged debt abuse to the extreme. Furthermore, our hedonistic society fully embraces immediate gratification, and abuses credit to obtain today’s satisfaction and thrill. Chairman Greenspan has unquestionably fostered a speculative mindset which includes debt abuse, has let loose the dogs of mortgage finance, and has relied upon Manhattan crowbars to placate the wealthy with profitable carry trade games. In no way can the gear be put into reverse. He has attempted to redefine legitimate wealth generation and to minimize international debt dependence, a liar to Economic Mother Nature. He is bound to continue the low-cost supply of credit, much like a parent must permit steady raids of the family liquor cabinet. Just as a wayward reckless son might wield a gun at his parents to force his way to the Jack Daniels or Jim Beam, the US Economy extorts easy money from the Fed and its collusive central bankers. Implicitly, our economy threatens massive job loss, declines in housing prices, a rash of bankruptcies, and systemic financial seizures, if credit is interrupted. The Federal Reserve has its hands tied. It cannot raise rates to any neutral range any more than a parent can cut off his threatening son. This essay covered only 11 key inpatient clinical queries. There are more, up to 20 in all, but of lesser diagnostic importance. Clinical psychologists urge treatment to any substance abuser who answers to the affirmative on at least 3 to 5 questions. US Financials answer yes to all eleven posed questions. As for the US Financials, please proceed to ROOM 990N. Nobody claims to occupy the room, but we have all seen far too much suspicious late-day activity which bears its signature. NEWS TIDBITS Wal-Mart announced sales in August are tracking at a zero to 2% growth rate, reduced from hurricane damage to the Florida region and from the higher cost of gasoline. All eyes are on back-to-school sales. Kmart Holdings reported its third consecutive quarterly profit and boosted its cash pile to $2.6 billion as it cut spending on advertising and discounts. They have also agreed to sell dozens of its stores in recent weeks, moves that will likely boost its cash holdings to more than $3 billion. Likely buyers are primarily Home Depot, but also Sears. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert McTeer reiterated the central bank's upbeat views on the US economy, but the market was largely unfazed. Speaking on CNBC television, McTeer stuck to the Fed's party line that while the US economy is in a soft spot, the recovery is not in jeopardy. More important to traders was a decline in oil prices, which were down near $46 a barrel after hitting a record high above $49 on Friday. Russian President Vladimir Putin told President Bush that Russian oil companies were boosting production as well as exports and would continue to do so. Iraq resumed supply of roughly two million barrels per day in output. Yukos faces a new assault, that of a fresh $3 billion tax bill. They expect a 4.5% decline in output for the current year. So many Olympic events to report on. America's Justin Gatlin became one of the youngest winners of the 100 meters Olympic title here in one of the greatest finals of all time, beating Maurice Green in a race where more men registered a sub-10 second time than ever in history. Carly Patterson won the women’s all-around gymnastic gold medal. Jeremy Wariner picked up where Michael Johnson left off as he became the sixth straight American to win an Olympic 400 meter title and led a US sweep of the medals in that event. The United States women’s softball team took home their third straight gold medal, after dominated in a series of shutout victories. US women forfeited gold in the medley relay to Australia, an event our women have held for a long time. Amanda Beard took the 200-meter women’s breast stroke. The US men’s basketball team lost a close game to Lithuania, as outside shooting and mediocre foul shooting plague the team. Athens' gypsies say they are being hidden away during Olympics. Thousands of impoverished nomadic gypsies claim they have been hidden away in shame for the Summer Games. “Exorcist” took the top spot in the box office with $18.2 million, followed by “Without a Paddle” at $13.7M and “Princess Diaries II” at $13.2M in a tame week. TODAY’S MARKET Today the Dow Jones Industrials wrapped up at 10073 (-37), S&P at 1096 (-2.6), Nasdaq at 1839 (+1), TENS yield 4.279% (+4.8 bpt). Currencies closed with Euro at 121.41 (-1.62), JYen at 91.20 (-0.45), Can$ at 76.34 (-0.73). Metals finished with gold at 410.8 (-3.6), silver at 674.5 (-12.0), copper at 124.15 (-2.80). Energy ended with crude oil at 46.00 (-0.72), natural gas at 547.5 (-21.8), unleaded gasoline at 125.0 (-1.6). Prices are at major futures contracts. Jim Willie CB
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