The Girl Child Arrives

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Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific fell another 0.2 degrees in the last week. This drop was sufficient to achieve La Nina conditions:

nooa la nina

It was just seven months ago that the strongest El Nino in recorded history was set. The weather folks and their computers were anticipating that the Pacific Ocean would revert to a neutral status (+/- 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit). Now it looks like a full bore La Nina is in the immediate future.

There are a dozen or so computers that track the hourly buoy data from the Pacific. These computers are run by government weather gurus as well as some Universities. The goal is to accurately forecast the El Nino/La Nina cycles. It would be worth billions if they could do it. The rapid fall in ocean temps has had the computers working overtime. The most recent update has all of the models in either neutral or La Nina in the coming months:

iri nino outlook

Does it mean anything if we are to get a strong La Nina later this summer and into the fall? Based on recent history it does. In January of 1998 there was a record La Nina. By the summer of ′98 the water temperatures had fallen rapidly and a strong La Nina developed.  2016 is shaping up to be a perfect repeat. This is how NOAA described the 1998 hurricane season:

1998 hurricane season

Time will tell if a few hurricanes are to make USA landfall. If they do, Florida is a prime target, as this year’s crop of hurricanes will likely be Atlantic born, and head for the SE coast.

If it should come to pass that Florida gets hit/brushed by a few big storms there might be some collateral damages. Florida is already flooded with rain water. The largest lake, Okeechobee, is  pumping water into canals that bring the excess water to the east and west coasts. The problem is that Okeechobee is filled with phosphates from farming. The result has been a huge toxic algae blooms. Floridians accuse the Feds for the problem. The argument is that the Army Corps of Engineers has not maintained the levees/dykes around Okeechobee so that the lake can no longer be safely filled to the brim.

florida rick scott algae

There could easily be a few feet of water in central Florida if this year’s La Nina proves to be as big as now predicted. Does an October Eco Disaster change the November voting in the key state of Florida?

algae bloom

Podcast: Get Ready for Global Weather Whiplash

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