A Timely Bounce for Gold

This is an excerpt from the January 6, 2012 blog for Decision Point subscribers.

After reaching an all-time high in August, gold has corrected about -18%, but a recent bounce prompts us to take a closer look to see if the correction could be over. The most encouraging technical evidence is on the weekly chart.

Note how the recent low occurred just above the long-term rising trend line. From the beginning of the correction I thought that this trend line was a logical downside target. Whether or not the bounce off this line is the beginning of a new up leg destined to take out the August highs, has yet to be determined.

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The fact that the support has held is very positive, but the weekly PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) configuration is still negative -- falling below its EMA, and still somewhat overbought.

Shorter-term the daily PMO below is oversold and has bottomed, but the price line has encountered resistance at the 200-EMA.

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Our Trend Model for gold is currently neutral (in cash or fully hedged), and a new but signal will not be generated until the daily 20-EMA crosses up through the 50-EMA. That will probably take a few weeks if prices continue to rise.

Bottom Line: The correction has been of sufficient depth and duration that the bounce off long-term support presents a short-term buying opportunity for those anxious to exploit the next leg up, assuming that there will be one; however, not enough tumblers have fallen into place to justify anything but very tight stops.