Market Brief November 2012
Technical Weakness Continues
The technical picture in the market continues to deteriorate. The divergence between the Dow Transports and the Dow Industrials has been resolved with both indices now adopting a bearish stance. The Dow 30, the Dow 20 and the NASDAQ are all trading below their 200 day moving averages. The S & P 500 is only 3 points above this important technical level. In addition, with regard to market breath, the 20 day moving average has crossed the 50 day moving average on the McClellan Summation and the NYSE Advance/Decline Line. I am a great believer in market breadth indicators so I reckon we are on the cusp of a bear trend turning into a bear market. It is all in play as we speak but for me the deciding indicator will be the Dow Transports. As mentioned in the October brief, should this index break below the 4850 level decisively, in all probability the bear trend will have gained "legs to last".
Many reckon that the "fiscal cliff" will be quickly sorted and that the positive trend in the American economy will resume. I am not so sure. This was no "ordinary" election. The Republican Party, following the "tea party revolution", is not the "normal" Republican Party. The issue is no longer simply economic. It has become one of identity and meaning, thus the party has become "evangelical". Previously a democratic president could always rely on doing a deal with some breakaway republicans to swing a mandate. Not so today. Any republican that breaks ranks will be seen as a total traitor to a higher cause and banished. This was why there was no fiscal breakthrough last year. The same dynamic will make it even more difficult to negotiate a resolution this second time around.
The closer the economy gets to the cut-off date the more volatile the situation is going to become and I read in the technicals that the market sees a difficult time ahead. I hope I am wrong and that the Transport Index holds.
Dow Industrials: Daily
Dow Transports: Daily
S & P 500; Daily
The European saga with regard to austerity continues apace making one wonder what American and Chinese politicians think of the sham that is Eurozone "financial management".
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