Note: This commentary has been updated to include the Real Personal Income Less Transfer Receipts for October.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.
There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:
- Nonfarm Employment
- Industrial Production
- Real Retail Sales
- Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts)
The Latest Indicator Data
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in October rose 0.47% and is up 4.5% year-over-year. When we adjust for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) rose 0.41%. The real number is up 4.3% year-over-year.
Real PI less TR is one of those indicators that warrants adjustment for population growth. Here is a chart of the series since 2000 adjusted accordingly by using the Civilian Population Age 16 and Over as the divisor.
A Note on the Excluded Transfer Receipts: These are benefits received for no direct services performed. They include Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid, Unemployment Assistance, and a wide range other benefits, mostly from government, but a few from businesses. Here is an illustration Transfer Receipts as a percent of Personal Income.
The Generic Big Four
The chart and table below illustrate the performance of the generic Big Four with an overlay of a simple average of the four since the end of the Great Recession. The data points show the cumulative percent change from a zero starting point for June 2009.
Current Assessment and Outlook
The US economy has been slow in recovering from the Great Recession. Weak Retail Sales and Industrial Production since December initially triggered a replay of the "severe winter" meme from last year. However, as we now finish the first month of Q4 of 2015, two of the four indicators are showing relatively consistent growth. Employment and Income have been been trending upward, while Industrial Production and Real Sales have remained relatively weak.
For many months the aggregate Big Four have trending sideways. The collective July indicators were within a hair's breadth of setting a new all-time high, but weak Industrial Production has pulled the trend lower.
The next update of the Big Four will be our first peek at November data, namely, the numbers for Nonfarm Employment.
