U.S. Economy Almost Back to Par Growth

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The U.S. Coincident SuperIndex, which estimates U.S economic current growth, is within a whisker of returning to the growth rate normally averaged by the economy after 33 months into an expansion, as shown by the chart on the left. However, cumulative growth since the start of the expansion still remains sub-par (right chart) due to 22 months of sub-par growth. The recent 5 months of growth, coupled with almost reaching the par growth level are encouraging, but the sub-par cumulative expansion still leaves the US economy highly vulnerable to external shocks.

tracking the current u.s. expansion

summation of coincident superindex

Source: Recession Alert

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