Higher Stock Prices Could Hang Around If Enough Cheap Money Is Printed
What Will Individual Investors Do If Bond Yields Climb Aggressively?
The stock market could move significantly higher this week, assuming that the fine print for the Spanish bank bailout doesn't spoil the market's perception that there is an all out effort, to finally reflate the global economy.
To us, this seems as if the global central banks are now throwing up their hands and crying uncle. The politicians clearly can't seem to understand that the money vacuum left by the derivatives related to subprime mortgages will never be filled until new money is actualy printed and somehow actually makes its way out bank vaults.
The money that was sucked out of the global economy isn't gone. It's in the pockets of those who bet correctly against the subprime mortgage bubble. That means that at some point, that money may be redeployed. Into what and when are the real questions. The fact is that all that cash may never be seen again, at least not in our lifetime, as it may well seed the new line of "old money," the families and the legates of the handful of people who made the right bet.
Now, for the rest of us mere mortals, the task is to see what happens in the next few days. Our bet is that higher prices lie ahead in the short term.
And here is something else to consider. According to recent data, individual investors are responsible for a large portion of the gains in the treasury bond market. History shows that individual investors are often left holding the bag. They know that now and have run away from stocks. The problem for individual investors is that dividend paying stocks have been a better deal than bond yields.
The rally in bonds has led to nice paper gains for small investors. The problem is that paper gains aren't guaranteed. Individual investors don't like to sell. They see the bond market as a safe bet, because they can hold those bonds to maturity and get their money back. But what will they do when the money printing presses hit high gear in the next few months and bond yields start to rise?
The S & P 500 (SPX) had a great close on Friday. The index closed above its 200-day moving average and, despite low volume, the action was positive from a breadth and momentum standpoint.
Small stocks (RUT) are still not showing the strength that would be needed to fuel a bigger rally. But the Nasdaq Advance Decline line (NAAD) was positive and has made a tentative bottom. This is not an all clear yet, but it is encouraging.
The Nasdaq Hi-Lo line (NAHL) contnues to its flattening out. This is encouraging, but not a reason to make huge bets yet. Still, it is a reason to consider putting small amounts of money to work. See our S & P timing section for trading ideas.
The stock market is acting like a patient who has had a heart attack but has recovered enough to walk without help.
We are turning slightly positive on a trading basis.
Keep your cash ready to deploy and remain patient.
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