Complications and Combinations

President Bush's foreign policy is beset by complications. It is now evident that the U.S. Army and Marine Corps failed to subdue hostile forces in Iraq, which are now emerging. Meanwhile, North Korea flirts with nuclear confrontation. China continues its military buildup against Taiwan as Russia embraces President Vladimir Putin's military revitalization program. Old and new enemies seem to be positioning themselves for a future combination play against the United States. In terms of the global economy: Russia is pulling, OPEC is pushing, China is profiting and America is paying. The debt crisis within the United States, exacerbated by half-trillion dollar federal deficits and corporate accounting scandals, is bound to worsen. Then there is the threat of further terrorist attacks which could impact the American economy.

Last Sunday ABC News warned of a potential, imminent terror attack against the United States. On April 9, intelligence officials in Washington alerted local police in dozens of major cities to watch for suspicious persons near likely targets. On April 10, Washington followed up with a secret security warning. Muslim terrorists are in place, it said. They are waiting to go into action. Yet the government has no information regarding specific terrorist plans. The national threat level remains at yellow. All things considered, it is more likely that a European country will be al Qaeda's next target, especially after Europe rejected bin Laden's truce offer.

A more tangible concern is the threat of rising energy prices. OPEC recently approved a 4 percent cut in production. The Saudi monarchy may not be willing to support an American president committed to democracy in the Middle East. In terms of Saudi foreign policy and the manipulation of energy prices, the Saudis seem to be cooperating with Moscow - their old rival in the oil game.

OPEC ministers say the rise in U.S. gasoline prices is not due to a shortage of crude oil. The problem, they say, is attributable to American refinery bottlenecks and too many cars on America's roads. The president of OPEC recently expressed concern about "the low value of the dollar" and the effect this has on oil revenues.

Since OPEC countries are notorious for exceeding agreed output quotas, price increases may be caused by unprecedented demand and not by OPEC. This rise in demand may be due to China's continuing and rapid economic growth. On March 30th the Wall Street Journal Online featured an article by Charles Hutzler on China's "blistering" economic growth, which is estimated at 9 percent for the first half of 2004. A former newspaper editor and news analyst recently wrote to me about China's apparent economic strategy: "We see that China is now using the enormous sums she has gained from her trade imbalance with the U.S. to buy astronomical amounts of oil. Numerous reports say they are stockpiling it. This has a dual purpose: 1) the increased pressure on demand raises the price of oil globally; 2) the Chinese need a good stockpile if they want to invade Taiwan."

In terms of grand strategy, China's ambitions in the Pacific region are in conflict with American commitments. It must be understood that China's trade policy with America is not simply "for profit." It is also economic warfare. It is an attempt to grow at the expense of a rival power. The American economy is troubled. There are many weaknesses to exploit. America's financial irresponsibility is the key. Consider the budget of the federal government. Consider the indebtedness of state governments like California. Also consider the spending and saving habits of private companies and individuals. America's misuse of money is a cultural phenomenon, having to do with an emerging sense of entitlement, a belief that prosperity is somehow guaranteed, that the next decade will resemble the last, that America will continue as the world's leading power.

Already America's diplomatic standing is in decline. Germany and France worked to sabotage America's war plan in Iraq, urging Turkey to block the planned deployment of the U.S. 4th Infantry Division through Turkish territory. French duplicity was notably egregious during the Iraq crisis. (For details, read Kenneth Timmerman's book, The French Betrayal of America.) Anti-Americanism is a growing phenomenon throughout Europe. This has been blamed on President Bush's policies, but the forces behind today's anti-American surge were nurtured long before Bush took the oath of office. Because anti-American attitudes are advanced systematically throughout the world, America's diplomatic prestige is eroding away. And so is the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq. Spain and Honduras are leaving the coalition. Thailand is threatening to pull its troops out. "If we get hurt or killed, I will not keep them there," said Thai Prime Minsiter Thaksin Shinawatra.

The United States has not sponsored a systematic propaganda campaign to win hearts and minds. Because the United States is a free country, the domestic critics of the U.S. government are free to make a louder noise than its supporters. Anti-Bush rhetoric is exported and amplified abroad. Sensational allegations against the U.S. government are constantly trumpeted in the press. When these allegations prove unfounded, interest is minimal.

America's strategic position is further threatened by growing unrest in Iraq. It appears that anti-American Shi'ites and Sunis are getting together in the city of Fallujah. Young Shi'ites are joining Sunnis. America's plans for Iraq are being challenged. Worse yet, the Iraqi people have adopted a "wait and see" attitude. They do not understand why America should sacrifice to make them free and prosperous. America's objectives in Iraq are not merely unintelligible to the Iraqi masses; these objectives are preposterous. Iraqis necessarily share the cynicism of all peoples trampled by totalitarianism. They do not believe in goodness. They do not believe in freedom. They believe in cruelty and violence, and that is why the party of violence is growing in Iraq, and will continue to grow. The president says that the Iraqis want democracy and are capable of building a free society. In reality, the Iraqi people have not rallied to the democratic cause.

The United States dropped two atomic bombs on Japan that resulted in a relatively smooth transition to democracy (and a remarkably stable democracy at that). Today the United States will not enter Najaf in pursuit of a violent enemy. In 1945 peace was founded on implacable American ruthlessness. In 2004 a simmering urban battleground rests firmly on a soft cushion of political sensitivity, budget-busting benevolence and utopian expectations. A little more cruelty would have been kinder to the Iraqi people and easier on the U.S. federal budget; and Iraqi democracy might have had a chance. But now the outcome is doubtful. If America suffers a financial dislocation, if Bush loses the November election, the war in Iraq will have been for nothing. In that event, America's enemies will be strengthened. America's friends will be fewer and oil might not be traded in dollars, but in euros.

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jrnyquist [at] aol [dot] com ()
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