Federal Government Receipts, Expenditures and Deficits

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released third (or final) estimates of GDP last week. The following four charts are drawn from data in that release.  I have added comments to each chart.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chart 4

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From the Standard and Poor's website: "The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures for the US residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate both nationally as well as in 20 metropolitan regions. The indices are calculated monthly and published with a two month lag."

Data for July was released last week. The following chart shows both the history of the Composite of 10 and the Composite of 20.

Chart 5

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Table 1 below shows:

1. The two composites and each of the 20 metropolitan areas for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
2. The date and value of each index at it's high.
3. The date and value of each index at it's low.
4. The percentage change from the cycle high to the cycle low.
5. The percentage change from the cycle high to July, 2010.
6. The percentage change from the cycle low to July, 2010.

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Currencies, including the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen, the Euro and the Brazilian Real, have been making news again. The following chart shows the swings in the U.S. Dollar from the March, 2008 bottom through last Friday.

Chart 6

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We and others have observed the inverse relationship of movements in the U.S. Dollar and various financial assets and commodities. Table 2 below shows the percentage change of the U.S. Dollar versus the other items for the time period of June 7, 2010 to October 1, 2010.

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With the official dating of the end of the latest recession two weeks ago, we thought it would be appropriate to conclude this Observation with a long-term chart of the S&P Composite shown with recessions as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The chart is monthly and covers the time period from 1871 through September, 2010. Notice how the left side of the chart is populated with many more recessions and longer ones as well.

Chart 7

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