As Spring Approaches, Will the Corporate Sector Expansion Peak Once Again?
The Empire (NY State) Manufacturing survey published last week showed a strong recovery for February. The result, which tends to be volatile, was significantly better than consensus.
It remains to be seen however if we are going to repeat an earlier pattern. The survey's historical data shows conditions peaking in late winter to early spring and declining later in the year.
This pattern is not confined to NY state, and is in fact also visible at the national level. Within the next few days we should see the result from Markit US PMI for February, giving us a better feel for the trend in US manufacturing. So far however, the cycle remains intact.
But nowhere else is the cyclical pattern more visible than in the ISI's company survey (discussed here). In particular, the diffusion index is now once again pointing to expansion in the US corporate sector. But spring is fast approaching...
Source: ISI Group
Source: Sober Look
About Sober Look
Sober Look Archive
|10/21/2014||No Hard-Landing for China’s Economy for Now||story|
|10/14/2014||Futures Market Expects Fed to Delay Rate Hikes for a Year||story|
|10/13/2014||Maxed Out? Benefits of Further Easing Questioned in Japan as Economic Costs Increase||story|
|10/09/2014||The FOMC Takes Dollar Strength Into Account||story|
|10/08/2014||Labor Supply/Demand Imbalance in the United States||story|
|10/07/2014||Volatility Returning to Currency Markets||story|
|10/06/2014||Fed May Hold Off Raising Interest Rates If Strong Dollar Continues||story|
|09/29/2014||Why a Peak in the Bond Market May Be Near||story|
|09/22/2014||Ukraine on the Brink||story|
|09/18/2014||PBoC Joins Other Major Central Banks With Unconventional Monetary Policy Action||story|