As Spring Approaches, Will the Corporate Sector Expansion Peak Once Again?
The Empire (NY State) Manufacturing survey published last week showed a strong recovery for February. The result, which tends to be volatile, was significantly better than consensus.
It remains to be seen however if we are going to repeat an earlier pattern. The survey's historical data shows conditions peaking in late winter to early spring and declining later in the year.
This pattern is not confined to NY state, and is in fact also visible at the national level. Within the next few days we should see the result from Markit US PMI for February, giving us a better feel for the trend in US manufacturing. So far however, the cycle remains intact.
But nowhere else is the cyclical pattern more visible than in the ISI's company survey (discussed here). In particular, the diffusion index is now once again pointing to expansion in the US corporate sector. But spring is fast approaching...
Source: ISI Group
Source: Sober Look
About Sober Look
Sober Look Archive
|06/29/2015||Have the Saudis Miscalculated the Impact of Lower Crude Prices on US Production?||story|
|06/23/2015||Managing Greek Default Risks||story|
|06/17/2015||Reasons Behind Homebuilder Optimism||story|
|06/16/2015||US Skills Gap Becoming More Acute||story|
|06/08/2015||Unprecedented Levels of Activity in China’s Equity Markets||story|
|05/04/2015||Sentiment Shift on US Inflation Expectations||story|
|04/20/2015||Bank of Greece Expulsion From the Eurosystem Could Be Especially Damaging to the Currency Union||story|
|04/06/2015||Renewed Demand for Dollar Funding in the Eurozone||story|
|03/30/2015||Frenzied Speculative Activity in China's Equity Markets||story|
|03/16/2015||Stocks in China Soar as Hard-Landing Fears Resurface||story|