Earlier yesterday, the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose again this month, up from a downwardly revised 77.5 in December to 80.7 in January, as the current conditions index rose to the highest reading of the recovery, up 3.8 points to 79.1.
The expectations index rose just 1.8 points to 81.8, however, all of these readings remain well below the 90-to-110 range that is typical of non-recession periods as shown below. Note that Hurricane Katrina in late-2005 was the only occasion following the 2001 recession that confidence dipped below the 90 mark by any significant amount.
Also yesterday, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed home prices continuing to rise, up almost 14 percent from a year ago for the biggest annual gain in almost eight years.
But, orders for durable goods disappointed, down 4.3 percent in December versus analysts’ estimates for a gain of 2 percent. Excluding the volatile transportation component orders fell 1.6 percent, and this will temper some of the enthusiasm surrounding fourth quarter growth that is set to be released on Thursday.
