According to Shilling, the U.S. has gone through a number of leveraging and deleveraging cycles, with the latter taking about ten years to complete. Right now, he says, we have about four more years of slow growth before economic activity gets back to normal.
It can be difficult to completely avoid a $5 trillion elephant in the middle of one's own living room. In an ironic twist, millions of people who are investing for retirement specifically to escape from dependence on Social Security may find that no matter where in the room they go — that elephant is still there.
The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends is out today. The March update for February came in at 91.3, down 2.7 points from the previous month's 94.1, ending a three-month string of improvement.
The authors claim the current financial bubble is even bigger than the one in 2007. I agree. But how does it end?
Lies, damn lies, and statistics! I am sure you have heard that saying before. There has been a burgeoning cottage industry for market pundits that trash any economic number that comes out, especially the ones that go against their projections.
Confronted with the possibility that the endgame of the present experiment in extreme monetary accommodation may be higher inflation and even currency disaster, many private investors and portfolio managers respond that they should be okay, since their wealth is protected through allocations to equities and real estate.
After posting another new high last week, stocks were taking a breather during Monday’s session. The primary catalyst came out of China.
We are in a somewhat of a dead-zone on the data front this week, with the Q4 earnings season effectively over and not much on the economic calendar either. For the record, the earnings season isn’t officially over yet as we will get results from more than 180 companies this week, including 2 S&P 500 members.