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Peaking Consumer Confidence is Consistent
with the Coming Second Downleg in the
Supercycle Bear Market
by Bob Bronson
Bronson Capital
Markets Research
March 23, 2005
Our sentiment factor group -- one of the eight factor groups in our
forecasting model: monetary-economic, socio-political,
valuation-sentiment and inter- and intra-market technical -- includes
several dozen sentiment indicators.
The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index is one of the best stand-alone weekly sentiment indicators because it often even slightly leads the stock market.
As expected, it peaked at the same time as the stock market did with negative divergence when we made that call in early March.
See the updated short term chart below -- also the attached .gif file chart -- and the longer term chart with our Supercycle bearish expectations annotated further below.
From:
Bob Bronson [mailto:Bob@Bronsons.com]
Sent: Tuesday, March
08, 2005 5:06 PM
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E-mail List
Subject:
Peaking consumer confidence is consistent with the coming second
downleg in the Supercycle Bear Market
© 2005 Bob Bronson
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Bronson Capital Markets Research
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