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THE
GREATER DEPRESSION Update
by Doug Casey
Chairman,
CaseyResearch.com
September 26, 2007
Let me cover the big
picture. I do think we're approaching the end of the world as we know
it…I think there is such thing as the business cycle. It exists. And
we've had the longest expansion - and the strongest expansion - in the
world history. But we're at the end of a 25-year boom. It's gone on more
than a full generation now. And I'll tell you how it's going to end:
It's going to end with a depression, and not just a depression; not just
another Great Depression; it's going to be the Greater Depression.
What's a depression,
incidentally? It's a period of time when distortions and misallocations
of capital are liquidated; that's called a depression. Over the last 25
years, distortions and misallocations of capital have produced an
artificial boom. But when these distortions and misallocations of
capital are liquidated, we'll get a depression.
Another general
definition of a depression is this: a period of time when most people's
standard of living goes down significantly. Now, for the long run,
there's no question in my mind the standard of living of everybody on
earth is going to go up immensely over the next hundred years.
Immensely. But that doesn't mean that we're not going to have setbacks,
and I think we're looking at one: A severe standard of living drop. So
the economic picture is not going to be good…
So what should you be
doing about all this? I suggest you really internationalize yourself. I
think what you ought to have is your citizenship in one country, your
bank account in another country, your investments in a third, and live
in a fourth. You've got to internationalize yourself. Most people out
there are like medieval serfs, psychologically and physically: they're
born some place, they don't go very far from it and that's where they
die, and they're going to get exactly what they deserve. Well, you can't
be that way. I think you ought to treat the world as your oyster.
What am I doing about
this? I've been all over the world. I guess I've lived in 12 countries
now. And out of 175, I've been to most of them, numerous times actually.
What am I doing, where do I want to go, where am I living?
Well, in New Zealand. I
went there a few years ago for the polo, actually, and the reason was
that playing polo there was about 10% what it cost me in Palm Beach, and
I liked it better. So we bought a lot of real estate. But since then,
the currency has doubled and the real estate within that currency has
doubled at least. So I'm getting out of New Zealand. Where am I going
now? I'm going to Argentina.
And let me give you a
tip, okay? Forget about Europe, it's going to become a petting zoo. It's
like Disneyland with real stones instead of paper Mache stones. I mean,
Europe is on the slippery slope. I wouldn't touch Europe with a ten-foot
pole. If this war with Islam gets out of control, Europe is going to be
an epicenter. It's going to be a disaster. I'll tell you where you ought
to look. Argentina is the place to be. It's the cheapest country in the
world. It has low population, incredibly beautiful, the climate is
great. One hundred years ago, it was in competition with the US for
being the best place in the world and the richest place. But it went
downhill radically, radically.
But let me tell you
something. It's turning around I think. And what's going to happen is
driven by the fact that everything in Argentina costs between 10% to 30%
of what it costs in North America. That's correct. It's that cheap. It's
free. It's free. It's free for us as North Americans. But the Europeans
really think it's free with that strong Euro. So you're getting a
massive immigration from rich Europeans that can see the handwriting on
the wall and like it down there. And I really like it down there. It's
just a great society, great society, great place to hang out, prices are
right. I mean this can solve most of your investment problems right
there, just by transplanting yourself, if you've got some capital.
Furthermore, Argentina is going to be insolated from WWIII to a good
extent.
Hope to see you down
there!

© 2007 Doug Casey
Editorial Archive
--- Doug
Casey International Speculator Gold Report ---
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investors are…Clueless… about Gold!
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