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The
Daily Reckoning PRESENTS:
We may have thought we had it bad with the
heat this summer here in the United States, but in Spain, the summer of
2006 brought wildfires and drought. Chris Mayer reports on the effect
this water shortage has had on the European lifestyle - and the possible
solutions to this widespread problem...
Crops
withering under the blistering gaze of the sun. Cracked mud flats curl
along the edge of shrunken waterways. Fish lie dying on the dried
riverbeds. And in the evening, the orange glow of wildfires pulses
against the dark sky like the glow of a torch. This is not some eerie
scene from a science fiction movie. This is summer in Spain in 2006,
victim of drought.
Spanish
water reservoirs were at only 45% capacity in August. In the
tourist-heavy southeast, they were as low as 8%, getting close to the
sludge at the bottom. Spanish farmers face severe water restrictions and
the prospect of a much smaller harvest. They will lose hundreds of
millions of euros as a result. Fires peppered Spain's parched forests.
In the first week of August alone, there were over 100 forest fires in
northern Spain, killing at least three people. But it's not just Spain that
is parched. Much of Western Europe suffers from unyielding drought.
Drought
has even touched the normally deep and powerful Rhine, the busiest
waterway in Europe. The proud old river is a shallow and feeble portrait
of its old self. Ships must carry less cargo than they once did. And
shipping companies recently imposed surcharges of 50% to make up the
lost revenue.
The
hot dry summer has a ripple effect on European life. According to the
Financial Times: "Desperate to conserve water, Paris has for the
first time decided not to dampen the dusty paths of its public gardens.
English gardeners are banned from using hosepipes, while swimming pools
remain empty in many Spanish towns."
The
tight water constraints also threaten livestock, as favored lush meadows
and cool watering holes are now dusty fields and clumpy mud puddles.
Harvest of beets, rice and corn will approach record lows.
Some
may think that this is all just temporary. After all, occasional drought
is part of life on this unpredictable little planet - like rain on
summer barbeques and clouded-over picnics. But it is more than that. The
record high temperatures expose deeper problems in how we manage our
precious water resources.
Among
those lying exposed are farmers. Farmers waste a lot of water. They
would probably prefer not a lot of people know about this habit (as
don't bed-wetters). But it is impossible to ignore.
In
Spain, agriculture uses about three-quarters of the country's water. Yet
according to Spain's environment ministry, at least 80% of that water is
wasted. Some is lost through leaking infrastructure or inefficient
irrigation techniques. Heavy farm subsidies also discourage efficient
use of water resources and lead to waste.
The
solution is apparent. Europe needs more investment in water
infrastructure, such as reservoirs and improved pipe systems. It needs
more efficient irrigation systems and greater reliance on market
incentives to encourage smarter water use. It's a tale told in hundreds
of other places.
The
irrigation angle is really the cake frosting to this story. It is the
most appealing part, because the need for greater efficiency is so
widespread. And there is actually an investment idea buried in here.
In
most countries, agriculture is the largest consumer of water. The less
developed the country, the more agriculture tends to consume. As I've
said, much of this is wasted. By some estimates, half of farmers' water
use does not produce any food at all.
Therefore,
minor changes in use can have a dramatic impact on the supply of water.
As Fredrik Segerfeldt writes in his excellent book Water for Sale:
"A 10% improvement in the distribution of water to agriculture
would double the world's potable water supply." Using drip
irrigation to grow tomatoes, instead of traditional irrigation, for
example, lowers the amount of water used by about a third.
Improved
irrigation is a crucial component of better management of water
resources. The most telling statistic of all is this: Irrigation waters
only about 17% of the world's farmed acreage. Yet that irrigated acreage
produces 40% of the world's food supply. That is astounding
productivity. It also shows why irrigation technology will figure
prominently in solving water supply problems.
One
company I recommended in Mayer's Special Situations makes irrigation
equipment. Though its headquarters are deep in the American Midwest - in
Omaha, Neb. - this company is a global player. Farmers use its
irrigation systems to water crops, nurseries, turf, pasture and much
more. Their products improve water efficiency and boost crop yields.
About
a third of its sales come from overseas. This piece of the business has
a bright future. Management estimates that international sales will make
up half of the company's sales in the next five years. They are in all
the hot spot markets you would want to participate in - China, Africa,
Brazil, Australia and, of course, Europe.
And
the business is booming. Revenues were up 34% last quarter. Profit
margins are up. Earnings nearly doubled. The backlog is up 73%. The
company is in great financial shape. It's got lots of cash and
marketable securities - more than $4 per share on a $27 stock - and no
debt. Finding companies with all these attributes these days is a rarity
- like pitchers who hit home runs.
It
may seem expensive at 31 times trailing earnings. But earnings are
growing rapidly. Next year, this stock could easily earn well over $1
per share. Backing out that extra cash gives you a multiple of around
23. Not bad for a company ramping up earnings as quickly as they are.
Regards,
Chris
Mayer
for The Daily Reckoning
P.S.
Though there are always choppy ups and downs in the ag markets, I like
the long-term story with this company. And every time we have drought
and water constraints, practically anywhere in the world, it will be
hard to ignore this company's solution.
To
find out more about this small corporation in the midst of a powerful
secular trend, see my latest issue of Capital
and Crisis

© 2006 Chris Mayer
The
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Bonner is the founder and editor of The Daily Reckoning. He is
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This
essay was originally published in The Daily Reckoning.
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