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The
Daily Reckoning PRESENTS:
There are good mid-size and small companies
tucked away in places other than the United States. Stateside investors
ignoring these other opportunities are like wine drinkers who don’t
want to try imported wines. Chris Mayer explores...
I
just finished two new books about investing. One, written by a capable
analyst, tackled global investing directly. The other, penned by a famed
money manager, did so only indirectly. But the message behind both books
was simply this - investors need to look abroad.
We’ll
start with the indirect first. Christopher Browne of Tweedy, Browne fame
just published a book called The Little Book of Value Investing. In it,
he lays out some basic thoughts and ideas on how the aspiring investor
may add to his financial breadbasket.
The
book is in the Graham and Dodd tradition - espousing simple verities
about the virtues of buying cheap stocks. It’s like a little country
store. But instead of polished apples and sweet corn, the shelves hold
bags of polished wisdom and sweet dollops of moneymaking advice.
But
what struck me, buried among the homespun maxims, was his emphasis on
global investing.
Browne
gleefully tells readers of his exploits kicking around in faraway
markets. Like an eager traveler returning from his first look at the
pyramids of Egypt or gazing up at the Incan ruins of Machu Picchu,
Browne talks about the glories of picking up cheap stocks in Japan,
South Korea and Switzerland.
In
the late 1990s, free-spirited investors could find Japanese
homebuilders, media companies and textile mills selling for less than
the cash on their books. In 2003, Browne uncovered a Swiss conglomerate
loaded with valuable assets - real estate, a sheet metal business, a
sporting goods division and more. The stock traded for only one-half of
an understated book value. In two years, the stock doubled. He writes
about Dae Han Flour Mills of South Korea, which he picked up for
one-third of book value.
This
is merely a small sample of Browne’s profit-laden travelogue. A
globe-trotting treasure hunter, Browne spends considerable ink on the
rationale behind global investing, understanding foreign accounting,
what to make of foreign currencies and more.
But
for all the convoluted reasons others often offer up for investing in
foreign stocks, Browne offers one that’s crystal clear: “If you
expand your horizons to all the developed countries of the world,” he
writes, “you can double your chances of finding cheap stocks.”
To
dispel any fears of putting one’s hard-earned dough in some flighty
company glued together with matchsticks, Browne offers another basic,
yet compelling, observation.
When
you rank the top 20 companies in the world by sales, you find 12 of them
maintain headquarters in Europe or Asia. “The world’s largest oil
company is based in the United Kingdom [BP],” Browne writes. “And
three of the five largest auto manufacturers are found in Germany and
Japan.”
What
holds true at the top also holds true in the middle and at the bottom.
There are good mid-size and small companies tucked away in places other
than the United States. Stateside investors ignoring these other
opportunities are like wine drinkers who don’t want to try imported
wines. They have restricted their choices unnecessarily - and they
don’t know what they are missing.
Browne
is a man who follows his own recipes. Today, his firm, Tweedy, Browne,
is finding bargains overseas. Of the $14 billion in assets it manages,
about 70% of the pile is in international stocks. And about a third of
that is in small companies with market caps of $5 billion or less. Among
his current favorites spots are South Korea, Japan and Mexico.
The
second book tackles global investing directly. Finding the Hot Spots is
the title of David Riedel’s new book. A former Salomon Smith Barney
farmhand, Riedel now heads up his own independent research firm.
Riedel
opens his book with several myth-slaying pages. To the charge that
investing overseas is too risky, Riedel turns the microscope on U.S.
markets. “Remember Enron and WorldCom?” Corporate mischief and
thievery pepper American companies as well.
Investors
also have a way of looking down at foreign firms because they believe
the information they are getting is not reliable. Again, Riedel points
out that unreliability is not unique to overseas markets. It’s not as
if we are talking about malaria or polio. In my personal experience, the
disclosures can sometimes be even more thorough overseas than at home.
Foreign firms know they have an extra hurdle to clear.
Further,
let’s not forget the basic idea of investing is to make some money.
Riedel writes, “Nobody would tell ever tell you that you should not
buy stocks from the beacon of American business like IBM, Coca-Cola,
Disney, Time Warner, Blockbuster, Microsoft or Sears.” Yet a
three-year investment in about half of these examples would have left
investors with less money than they started with.
But
the most interesting aspect of Riedel’s book is the numerous profiles
of foreign firms. Many of these are companies you’ve never heard of
before. And they trade on U.S. exchanges. Riedel discusses China Yuchai,
for example, which makes diesel fuel engines. Another interesting China
play is Bodisen Biotech. Despite its name, Bodisen is simply a producer
of fertilizer in China. This one looks interesting. As I write, the
stock is about $9 and trades for only 12 times trailing earnings. The
company has no debt and nearly a dollar a share in cash. Riedel’s book
gives plenty of interesting ideas like these.
Another
good reason to invest abroad is to give you some exposure to a currency
other than the frail and waning dollar. Riedel uses Brazil as an example
of the good things that can happen when you get a rising market and a
good currency. Last year, Brazil’s market rose about 30%. However, the
Brazilian real also rose against the dollar by about 14%. So all told,
U.S.-based investors in Brazilian stocks turned a 30% market gain into a
50% gain in dollar terms.
Not
that you will always get that extra wind behind your back. But it shows
you an unappreciated force in global investing.
In
summary, plenty of options lay before investors these days. Consider the
opening up of Eastern Europe or the booming economies of Asia. Or look
at the brightening prospects in parts of Africa. Or easily overlooked
South America. Both Browne and Riedel remind us of the potential in
these markets. They nudge us on to take a look beyond the fringe of
trees on the horizon and explore other lands under the big open sky.
Regards,
Chris
Mayer
for The Daily Reckoning

© 2006 Chris Mayer
The
Daily Reckoning Archives
www.dailyreckoning.com
Chris
Mayer is a veteran of the banking industry, specifically in the area of
corporate lending. A financial writer since 1998, Mr. Mayer's essays
have appeared in a wide variety of publications, from the Mises.org
Daily Article series to here in The Daily Reckoning. He is the editor of
Mayer's Special Situations and Capital and Crisis - formerly the Fleet
Street Letter.
The
above essay has been adapted from Chris’ latest issue of Capital and
Crisis. You can read more here:
Forget
Oil! What’s Next?
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