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The
Daily Reckoning PRESENTS:
"I'm a terrible mathematician and rely on all the modern-day
conveniences, like accountants…if you spent a lot of time after school
for math as well, then you may think you're not able to trade options.
Think again."
Early in my career
there was one area of trading that I avoided like the plague - options,
or options on futures, to be precise. I thought they were too
complicated, too expensive, too risky. It took me a long time to learn
that all my fears were misguided. In fact, options have ended up being
the most profitable part of my trading by far.
Now, I was no math
maven in school. I've struggled since Mr. Richardson's 6th grade math
tests, especially the five-minute one. (I still wake up in a cold sweat
over that one.) Let me tell you, his math tests kept me after school
many a day and destroyed any interest in math that I may ever have had.
All through the rest of my academic life I always did exceptionally well
in vocabulary, reading, and writing, but stunk at math in all forms
except geometry, which my brain confused with drawing. Still, to this
day, I'm a terrible mathematician and rely on all the modern-day
conveniences, like accountants.
Anyway, if you spent a
lot of time after school for math as well, then you may think you're not
able to trade options. Think again.
Some options books can
be mind-boggling, with complicated mathematical equations and lots of
detailed explanations that would mystify even Einstein, all to try and
explain a simple concept.
We won't go into great
detail here; there are plenty of resources for that on the Internet or
in your local bookstore. All you need to do is understand the basics of
options and how they can immediately benefit your portfolio in ways you
couldn't imagine. Right about now you're probably saying, "OK,
how?"
? Options limit
risk and give you unlimited profits.
? Options give you tons of leverage in an already highly leveraged
market.
? Options can allow you to trade markets you may not otherwise be
able to afford to trade due to extremely high margins (e.g., natural
gas, gold, crude oil).
? Options limit risk and give you unlimited profits. Worth
repeating this one.
Before you do anything,
you simply must learn the basics of options, there are no two ways about
that - even the Maniac Trader had to succumb at some point! Forget your
fear - if this 6th grade math dropout can do it and be consistently
successful, so can you.
So let's begin. A
"call" option is what we buy when we think the market is going
higher; a "put" option is what we buy when we think the market
is headed lower. Either way, the goal is the same: to make money from
the difference between the strike price of the option and the current
market rate of the investment. Right now we'll only discuss buying
options. Buying options, either puts or calls, involves limited risk and
unlimited profit potential. You can sell options, also called
"writing" options, but this carries with it limited profit
potential and unlimited risk. Selling or shorting options is highly
risky; if you're new to trading and even if you're not, many brokerage
firms won't even let you do it. So let's just focus on buying calls and
puts.
When we buy a call or
put we have to pay what is called "premium." Premium is a
fancy way of saying what you're going to have to fork over for the
option position. You can calculate what a fair premium should be in many
ways, but at first it's best to work with a broker who has experience in
calculating what a fair value for the option is; get them to help you
learn how to do it and don't take no for an answer.
Most of the time you
can find out where the option that you want to buy is trading just like
you can get futures quotes - in the newspaper or on the Internet. If
not, your broker can call the floor and get a fresh quote, much as they
may do with spread orders. It's a good idea anyway, because sometimes
there are so many options they don't all get updated and the price
information on the screen may not be the most current. Always check
first before trading.
Now I've gotten ahead
of myself a bit. Why exactly am I buying an option in the first place?
Why not just buy a cattle futures contract if I think it's going higher?
Great question. Answer: Two B-I-G advantages.
The first huge
advantage is that when you buy options you're not required to put up any
margin. Nope…zip, zero, nada. In other words, for something like
cattle futures you would need to put up around $945 per contract as a
guarantee or margin, and that money would remain locked up for the
length of the trade. If you were to buy a cattle option instead, you
would not have to post the margin at all, and could use that $945 toward
other trades or simply keep it liquid. This is one of the greatest
attractions of trading options: not tying up capital with margins.
Second, options allow
you to control a vast amount of a particular commodity at a ridiculously
low price. Leverage again - we love leverage! As you know, futures allow
you to do this, but to a much lesser extent. Also futures carry
unlimited risk as I pointed out earlier, while the risk in options is
limited to just the premium you pay, nothing more. Now the trick is
finding bargains in options and knowing what the risk/reward potential
is. This is where many traders come unstuck.
Make no mistake, there
are plenty of blunders people make when it comes to options, but a few
really stand out and I'll share them with you now.
First, chasing the
market doesn't pay. Never, never, never do this. This holds true even
more so for options than for futures. Chasing after a trade in a market
means you'll end up paying too much or selling for too little. In
options trading this can mean the difference between consistently making
and losing money. Remember, options have an intrinsic value when you
purchase them and the time value is always whittling away. The option is
constantly depreciating, like some new car from hell. So avid overpaying
for an option at all costs - it will be even harder to turn a profit
when it comes time to close the position.
Time is on your
side…don't buy options with too little time value. Time value is one
of the most important things in options, and for that asset you have to
pay more premium, but it can be worth it. The more time you have on your
side the more chance your trade has of making money. Buy too close in,
say one or two months, and you may not have enough time until expiration
for any real price movement. I don't advise trading options with less
than three months until expiration or more than 18 months.
Remember:
"cheap" doesn't always mean good. Also, stay away from way
out-of-the-money strike prices. Way, way out-of-the-money strike prices
for commodities may be cheaper but the old saying, "you get what
you pay for" usually applies. If the option is so far out-of-the-
money, say in heating oil, that it will take an ice-age to get to that
price level, then "cheap" is a relative term. Try to buy a
strike price that's only slightly out-of-the-money unless you feel very
strongly that the market is going to make a significant move in your
favor; then you want to buy deep, way out-of-the-money options, as
they're called.
There are plenty more
pitfalls. And as important as knowing what not to do is learning what
you should do to get a decent entry point for an option, which I will
discuss next time. Stay tuned…
Regards,
Kevin
Kerr
for The Daily Reckoning

© 2007 Kevin Kerr
The
Daily Reckoning Archives
www.dailyreckoning.com
Editor’s
Note: The above was taken from Kevin’s soon-to-be-released book, A
Maniac Commodity Trader’s Guide to Making a Fortune. In the book,
Kevin dispels the common myths and misconceptions about these markets,
offering an insider’s view of what he calls “the last bastion of
pure capitalism on Earth.” Whether you’re a novice or an experienced
trader, Kevin’s down-to-earth, clear-cut guidance will make you more
savvy, more confident, and more able to jump right in and grab those
profit opportunities that are waiting for you. The book is available for
pre-sale here: A
Maniac Commodity Trader’s Guide to Making a Fortune
Kevin
Kerr is the editor of two highly successful and acclaimed financial
advisory newsletters, Resource Trader Alert and Outstanding Investments.
A veteran commodities trader, Kevin uses his irreplaceable experience to
advise his readers on a variety of commodities investments on a daily
basis. Widely considered one of the nation’s top commodities gurus,
Kevin’s expert opinions are routinely featured in the country’s
premier media outlets.
To
learn more about Kevin’s commodities trading service, click here: Resource
Trader Alert
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