In the United States, if we hold a referendum, so voters may speak directly and decisively on a question, it always is at the state level, and, lately, most often addresses the legality of gay marriage, the decriminalization of marijuana, getting tough on illegal immigrants, or some other grave matter.
Favorable looking headlines from China and Europe and a mixed batch of earnings reports provide the backdrop for today’s trading action. The GDP report out of China shows that country’s growth falling to its level in years, but it nevertheless came in better than expected.
The drop in U.S. bond yields is perhaps the biggest surprise for investors this year. The gradual decline in Federal Reserve buying, faster growth, and the prospects for a rate hike in 2015 were expected to lift bond yields.
China's GDP growth is gradually slowing as expected - at least according to the official reports. Growth is now at the lowest level since 2009, but so far the Bloomberg China GDP Tracker forecast of a sharp correction this quarter has not materialized.
There has been much talk of globalization and the interdependence that has flowed from it. There is clearly much truth in arguing that what happens in one part of the world affects the rest. But that simply was not evident.
Last Wednesday, the markets reversed course after experiencing a long-awaited 10% correction from their September highs. The consensus view seems to be that this was a healthy and much-needed correction, and not the beginning of a new bear market...
After last week’s tumultuous markets one of my clients sent me an email saying “I am so relieved your constant talk about worsening imbalances kept us from getting too complacent. Things really are as bad as you keep saying.”
As quantitative easing comes to an end (apparently) by the Fed and is taken up by the European Central Bank (ECB), let’s compare the behavior of nominal domestic demand in each central bank’s economy and venture a reason for any differences.
Friday’s strong finish to last week’s extremely volatile session may not be the end of the market’s weak run. We must add, however, that this morning’s weak indicated open isn’t directly related to the issues that weighed on stocks last week.
It would be logical to think that the emergence of ISIL would have increased oil prices, but Brent crude oil prices have plummeted since July. Having now traded as low as $83 per barrel, oil is at its lowest price since 2012.