Editor’s note:

The U.S. media’s rocky relationship with President Bush is once again evident.

Much of the mainstream, prime time news coverage continues to swirl around two issues, the New Orleans hurricane, the obvious mismanagement of the unfortunate  situation there, and the increasingly ubiquitous activism of Cindy Sheehan, reportedly being financed by MoveOn.org, and other liberal groups associated with the Democratic party.

Sheehan is now a staple of the Drudge Report’s top headline section, with her recent arrest gathering significant amounts of publicity.

And while stories like Sheehan’s and hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and the devastation and suffering in their wake deserve coverage, another significant story, one with the potential for global repercussions, and the balance of power in the Middle East and beyond is being glossed over.

Over the weekend of September 25, 2005, the Pentagon announced that the number 2 man in Al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Azzam, reportedly, the second in command to widely known Al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

According to CNN.com, in a story posted at 3:26 A.M. on 9-27-05, almost two days after the event, (http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/09/27/iraq.main/) :“A man believed to be al Qaeda's No. 2 operative in Iraq has been killed, a U.S. Defense Department official confirmed to CNN.  Abu Azzam was a "significant" figure in the al Qaeda network in Iraq, the official said. Additional details about his death on Monday afternoon were not immediately available.”

A subscriber sent us a note from AP and Dow Jones Newswires, which pegged the story breaking on Sunday, 9-25, as follows:

“The U.S. network CBS News, quoting Pentagon officials, reported that U.S. forces killed Azzam in a house raid in Baghdad Sunday. CBS described Azzam as Zarqawi's top deputy, in control of financing foreign fighters coming into Ira. It was unclear if Azzam was the same individual as a man whose name appeared in February on a U.S. list of the 29 most-wanted supporters of insurgent groups in Iraq. Sheikh Abdalluh Abu Azzam, also know as Amir of Anbar, was listed as a Zarqawi lieutenant with an award for his capture. Meanwhile, in north Iraq, a top aide to al-Zarqawi surrendered to police in the city of Mosul, Iraqi army Brig. Gen. Ali Attalah said Monday. The aide, Abdul Rahman Hasan Shahin, was one of the most wanted figures in Mosul.”

And while the coverage by Reuters, AP, and other wire services was picking up steam, as we went to press on 9-27, we found no evidence that there was any urgency on the part of the major networks to provide any in depth analysis of significant coverage beyond sound bytes, of a story that could be signaling the potential for a turning point of the war in Iraq.

On 9-26-05, almost 24 hours before CNN posted the story on its website and before the news was moderately well reported, Dr. Joe Duarte www.joe-duate.com, issued the report that follows:

Today’s Analysis: Al Qaeda: Nearly Finished Or In Transition?
September 27, 2005

Al Qaeda is in deep trouble, this according to two very diverse sources, 60 Minutes, and Middle East Newsline. The notion was also advanced by President Bush in a Pentagon briefing on September 22nd, where he described a little reported scenario of steady progress in Iraq.

As the antiwar protests are getting the media coverage, the fact that several, independent, and clearly divergent sources are agreeing on the story is fairly remarkable.

According to Middle East Newsline: “The U.S. military has determined that 80 percent of the Al Qaida network has been captured or killed. Officials said the breakthrough against Al Qaida took place over the last four months. They said a series of strikes in northern and western Iraq have eliminated senior Al Qaida commanders as well as disrupted the flow of insurgents and weapons from neighboring Syria.”

For its part, 60 Minutes, on the CBS News Web Site, reported: “The Pakistani military officers battling al Qaeda along the border with Afghanistan who have the latest first-hand information about Osama bin Laden believe he is hiding with a small cadre in Afghanistan and is no longer an effective leader for the terrorist group.”

CBS News added: [“I think now [bin Laden] is being protected or assisted by a very short number, which keeps his profile very low,” says the counter-terrorism head of Pakistan’s Intelligence Service, a brigadier who goes by the name “Ali” and whose true identity is known by only a few government officials. Ali believes that bin Laden is still someplace along the border, probably in Afghanistan]

According to the report, released prior to the 60 Minutes broadcast of the story: “Ali tells 9CBS Correspondent Steve ) Kroft that Pakistan’s intelligence forces have diminished bin Laden’s power by capturing 594 al-Qaeda members and crippling the group’s communications, including infiltrating their courier network. [“We have been able to effectively break the communications network from top to bottom. We do not allow these people to communicate with each other,”] says Ali.”

Middle East Newsline reported: “Brig. Gen. Kevin Bergner, deputy commanding general of Multinational Force-Northwest in Iraq, told a Defense Department teleconference on Sept. 23 that U.S. and Iraqi troops have disrupted about 80 percent of Al Qaida's network. Bergner, an army officer, based his assessment on the detention and killing of the leadership as well as the disruption of the group's resources,” adding, "Eighty percent of the network has been affected by our operations, and when I say affected I mean in terms of either disrupting the flow of resources to them, disrupting the flow of people that participate in those terrorist acts, disrupting the leadership, and so forth,. Now the challenge is, you've got to keep them from reconstituting and continue to keep that pressure on."

Pulling Up Shop?

If indeed the job in Iraq and Pakistan against Al-Qaeda is moving along as well as described by the two very credible sources above, Al-Qaeda’s most prominent leadership, aka bin Laden, and Al-Zarqawi, might be looking for a new base of operations.

That base could be Gaza. According to ThePeninsulaQatar.com, citing comments by Israel’s domestic security chief, Israel is concerned that “Al Qaeda is poised to infiltrate the Gaza Strip and the Jewish state and that Palestinian police are incapable of controlling armed militants.”

According to the Qatar English language daily, “Yuval Diskin, in his first on-the-record briefing since taking over the Shin Bet security service in May, termed the Palestinian Authority’s ability to enforce law and order in Gaza to be [“negligible at best.”] He said that although Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas opposes terror, his ruling Fatah party is crumbling and, if it does not strengthen, will not be able to control Gaza “

Saudi Minister Shows Heightened Concern

According to Debka.com, and other sources, the Saudi government is increasingly concerned about internal and factional fighting in Iraq. Over the weekend, reports surfaced about U.S. forces clashing with Muqtada Al-Sadr’s Mahdi militia, the first such clash in many months.

As Debka reports: “In his talks with the Bush administration, Saudi foreign minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said [“All the dynamics are pulling the country apart, a development that could drag the region into war. A senior administration official (unnamed) responded: “The United States values and respects his view and we all share a common concern for the future and stability of Iraq.”]

Debka added: “Prince Saud blamed several American decisions for the slide towards disintegration, though he did not refer to the Bush administration directly. Primary among them was designating [“every Sunni as a Baathist criminal…unless something is done to bring Iraqis together, elections alone won’t do it. A constitution alone won’t do it.” ] He noted Turkey has long threatened to send troops if the Kurds declared independence and Iran is already sending money and weapons to support the Shiite-controlled south’s drive for independence. [“This is a very dangerous situation.”] “

Few Friends For Bush

President Bush’s poll ratings are in the cellars. Last week, conservative column wrote a column which described how wealthy Republicans, attending an exclusive Aspen retreat, spoke of their dissatisfaction with Mr. Bush.

According to Novak: “For two full days, President Bush was bashed. He was taken to task on his handling of stem cell research, population control, the Iraq war and, especially, Hurricane Katrina. The critics were no left-wing bloggers. They were rich, mainly Republican and presumably Bush voters in the last two presidential elections.”

Novak described how he was taken to task when he defended Bush: “In the absence of any disagreement, I took the floor to suggest there are scientists and bioethicists with dissenting views and that it was not productive to demean opposing views as based on [“religious dogma.'' The response was peeved criticism of my intervention and certainly no support.”

Novak, by his own account remained silent at further panels, and also was surprised by what he heard after his lack of participation: “during a break, one of the president's closest friends -- who had remained silent -- thanked me profusely for my comments. That set a pattern. Throughout the next two days, men and women who were mute publicly thanked me privately for speaking up. When I said nothing during one panel discussion, some people asked me why I was silent.”

Conclusion

Something is clearly up.

Bush allies, foreign, such as the Saudis, and domestic, such as the rich guys Novak described are turning against him, almost as sharks that smell blood in the water.

The left is on the warpath, with Ms. Sheehan leading protests in major cities, including one at Pennsylvania Avenue. Her tour reportedly funded by Democrat groups such as MoveOn.org.

And yet, Bush, the Pentagon, Middle East Newsline, and of all sources 60 Minutes, are telling a different story, albeit with some of the major outlets burying the coverage on their web sites and inside sections of newspapers.

To be sure, the left has a political agenda. And so does the right. They both agree on one thing, they want to be in power.

The left senses weakness in Bush, and the right senses that their grip on power is slipping away. Both are moving in for the kill.

An inside the beltway source slipped us an e-mail from the Democracy Corps, a left leaning pollster outfit on G street, which reported that their latest poll showed “deepening pessimism” about the direction of the country, and voters “moving away from President Bush in unprecedented numbers.” Much of the anger is centered on the positioning of “inexperienced political hacks” in key government positions, such as FEMA.

Here is where it gets interesting.

On the surface it looks as if the entire political spectrum is turning on Bush. And it probably is.

But, below the surface, something else may be happening, such as positive news on Iraq, at some point down the line, unless of course the country slips into civil war, and the defeat of Al-Qaeda, if indeed it were to come, would prove to be only the start of something worse.

There are two clear and distinct possibilities here. One is that Iraq is not going well, and the President is saying and doing anything he can to keep things from getting worse.

The other is that Bush is telling the truth. Things are improving, at least in some respects, and Al Qaeda is indeed on the run.

Which of course leaves a third alternative, that both of the above possibilities are true, simultaneously. In that case, Saud Al-Faisal, the Saudi Foreign Minister is right and Iraq is about to become even more than now, a very dangerous place, even without Al-Qaeda.

© 2005 Joe Duarte, M.D.
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