Editor’s Note:

On September 2006, Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chavez, in a speech at the United Nations delivered a series of personal attacks on U.S. President George W. Bush. While this is not the first instance of Chavez railing against President Bush, it is an important event, as it could signal that the covert war, originally described by Dr. Duarte on March 11, 2006 [Read] has hit a new phase. In this analysis, originally posted on 9-22-06, at www.joe-duarte.com, Dr. Duarte looks at the increasingly tense situation between Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and the United States, and its potential repercussions

U.N. Antics: A Cover For Darker Events?

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez made world headlines this week by calling President Bush "the devil" during a speech at the United Nations.

But aside from grabbing headlines, Chavez continues with long term plans to oppose the United States, and to block U.S. influence throughout the world.

Secret Pact With Iran?

According to Debka.com, not only did Chavez sign several commercial treaties with Iran prior to flying to New York, to deliver his anti-Bush tirade, but Chavez and Iranian president Ahmadinejad signed a series of secret treaties aimed at boosting the two countries' anti U.S. alliance and to boost their anti U.S. operations.

Debka reported: "While the leaders of the Non-Aligned Movement nations were making speeches at the 14th conference of their movement in Havana in mid-September, three groups of intelligence experts were off in a well-guarded corner next door to talk about matters far from the conference’s main theme of how to develop backward economies and societies."

The intelligence service, with a tabloid-like style added: "Iranian, Cuban and Venezuelan teams were putting their heads together on ways of translating their leaders' hostile rhetoric and slogans into effective war action against the United States."

According to Debka, the closing ties between Venezuela and Iran, are a natural progression of the close ties between Iran and Cuba that started after the 1979 Iranian revolution.

Debka reports several instances of the rising and falling tide of the relationship between Cuba and Iran, where Iran has had agents in Cuba for some time, and has tried to turn Cuba into an Iranian base from which to conduct espionage on the U.S.

For example: "In 2003, the Cuban ruler was furious when Iranian diplomats, without asking for permission, installed in their homes in a farm on the outskirts of Havana jamming equipment against television programs bounced from the United States through satellite to Iran. They were trying to stop Iranian opposition-backed television broadcasters in Los Angeles calling on Iranians to rise up against the Islamic regime. Castro made the Iranian diplomats evacuate the farm and remove their gear."

As Debka sees it "Castro is too old a hand to be manipulated in matters of subversion and terrorism. Chavez in contrast is just as anti-American but also rated by Tehran an easier mark. Although he needs to be handled with kid gloves as head of an oil-exporting country, the Iranians have noted that the Venezuelan leader is also open to cooperation in the politics of oil."

Debka also points out some further interesting aspects of the triangular relationship between Cuba, Venezuela, and Iran.

1. Although there is a partnership between Venezuela and Iran for oil production, Iran is "not too happy," with the partnership. Debka gives no reason for the unhappiness, and there is no evidence to support this allegation at this point, but it is interesting to get a glimpse into some of the potential inside maneuvers ongoing.

2. One of Iran's goals is to get Chavez and Castro to deploy Iranian missiles with enough range to hit U.S. targets in their respective countries. So far, neither Castro or Chavez have agreed. According to Debka, both Chavez and Castro "will think twice about granting this request, for fear of crossing one line too many for the Bush administration to swallow."

3. "The three-way talks have thus far yielded a solid decision for Iranian intelligence agents, some of them sabotage specialists, to be sent soon to Cuba and Venezuela. They will operate in the guise of road network and industrial development experts. Their real mission will be to conduct surveys on the practicability of using Cuba and Venezuela as bases for subversive activities against the United States and other parts of Latin America."

4. "Iran is also busy creating similar bases in E. Africa, favoring Sudan and Somalia."

5. "Iran is on the way to harnessing two more countries to its clandestine anti-US campaign: Somalia and Yemen. In Mogadishu, the Islamic Courts movement headed by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys is strengthening its grip on Somalia. Like Iran’s Islamic rulers, this group also preaches jihad and martyrdom (suicide attacks) for the sake of Islam."

Conclusion

Debka.com is an Israeli web site with a reputation for being flamboyant. Its record of accuracy is not stellar, by any means.

Yet, they do provide interesting intelligence from time to time. And this may be one of those times.

When this report is put in the context of the current geopolitical climate, it has a reasonable and plausible ring.

On March 11, 2006, we produced an analysis titled "Covert War Dead Ahead"

In the article we developed the thesis that Iran does not have the military capacity to take on the U.S. in a conventional war. Therefore, their only real choice would be to do what it is best at, to conduct a covert war, in this case directed at the U.S.

Our conclusion in March was: "we are witnessing a very dangerous game being deployed onto the world stage, as two very sophisticated, and motivated intelligence services, Iran's and the U.S.'s, are steadily being deployed, and conducting aggressive intelligence gathering, in preparation for an escalation of activity. So, as the diplomats yell at each other, the cloak and dagger crowd is conducting major spook jobs aimed at each other. Getting caught in the middle could be anyone who happens to be at the wrong place, at the wrong time."

As we noted in March: "Life could be getting very ready to become very interesting."

As the recent events at the NAM meeting and the U.N. clearly illustrate, life has indeed gotten very interesting.

© 2006 Joe Duarte, M.D.
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