Editor's Note:  The White House has been changing its tune on Iraq publicly, and may also be doing so privately. Recent reports suggest that the Bush administration is increasingly impatient with the lack of progress in Iraq, and that Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki might be ousted out of office, perhaps forcibly. The White House did not deny the rumors, and there has been no comment from the Iraqi government. Yet, if there is truth to this situation, it could be a significant and debilitating blow to the financial markets, as well as providing significant amounts of problems for the U.S. and coalition forces on the ground in Iraq. In this analysis, originally posted on October 26, 2006, at www.joe-duarte.com Dr. Duarte looks at the situation.

Iraq: Coup Rumors Surface (10-26-06)

The U.S. is losing its patience with the Iraqi government and some sources are reporting that there are plans for a removal of the Iraqi government if things don't change.

UPI, in a news analysis published on October 23rd reported: "Iraqi army officers are reportedly planning to stage a military coup with U.S. help to oust the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki."

The UPI piece noted two key developments:

1. "The proposed plan, according to the source, stipulates that the new Iraqi army, with the assistance of U.S. forces, will take control of power, suspend the constitution, dissolve parliament and form a new government. The military will also take direct control of the various provinces and the administration after imposing a state of emergency."

2. "An Arab source also told UPI that certain Arab countries were informed of the plan and requested to offer their help in convincing the former leaders of the deposed Baath Party regime residing in their countries to refrain from obstructing the move and stop violence perpetrated by the party in Iraq. In return, they will be invited to participate in the government at a later stage."

On October 25th, Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki angrily denounced a combined U.S. and Iraqi military operation in Sadr City, a Baghdad section occupied by Muqtada Al-Sadr and his Mehdi Army militia, saying that his office had not been notified of the action.

U.S. armed forces said that Maliki had been notified, while President Bush was ambivalent about what might or might not have happened with regard to the situation, while suggesting that U.S. patient in Iraq had limits.

Al-Maliki suggested that President Bush's very public change in strategy in Iraq was related to the U.S. midterm election, while President Bush responded, also in a press conference by noting; '"We are making it clear that America's patience is not unlimited," he said. "We will not put more pressure on the Iraqi government than it can bear."'

This set of circumstances indicates the new dynamic in Iraq, a lack of patience by the U.S. and signs of splintering within the Iraqi government.

Situation Critical

This is a highly complex situation developing, with multiple players vying to establish a long term foothold in Iraq.

The U.S. position is the clearest. The death toll for the U.S. armed forces, the rising violence in Iraq, and the lack of overall progress in establishing an Iraqi government that can stand on its own two feet are weighing on the electorate.

The Republicans are in trouble for the upcoming election, and the White House has to start cleaning house, for the Bush term will be over in 2008, no matter who wins the midterm election.

The situation in Iraq, is nowhere near that clean, as multiple groups have some hold on power, at least on a regional or local basis, and the central government is basically powerless to enforce any kind of national law.

Multiple trial balloons have been launched, including the notion that Iraq might be split into three regions based on the majority ethnic component of each area with the Kurds getting control of the North, the Sunnis the middle, and the Shia the South of the country.

The key to success in such a split is how the oil revenues will be divided. The North has plenty of oil. The South has a fairly good supply, as well as a port. And the middle has little to bargain with.

The major stumbling blocks at this point are the presence of the militias, and the death squads within the militia, as well as the presence of the Al-Qaeda jihadists, with the latter mostly holding ground in the Sunni dominated areas of the middle of the country.

Several reports suggest that some kind of end game is approaching, although the course is likely to be violent.

1. Stratfor.com reported that the Sunnis have approached the U.S., requesting that they would be willing to assist the U.S. in removing the jihadists from their portion of the country, in exchange for some kind of protection from the Shia.

2. As stated above, there have been rumors of a potential coup in Iraq.

3. The U.S. is attempting to remove certain death squad leaders from the playing field, thus the raid on Sadr city.

Conclusion

The situation is Iraq is inherently clear to the U.S. now, as they have been there long enough to have finally figured out who the key players are and what their objectives are likely to be in the post Saddam Hussein era.

Due to the politics of the country, though, it is increasingly difficult to deliver any kind of decisive blow to one or another key objective without causing a major upset in the balance of the central government.

In other words, it has become clear that the problem is the central government, since the only reason it is in power is because each of the other power groups in the country are using the central government for cover as each individual group seeks its own objectives.

That leaves the U.S. as the odd country out.

In this context, the U.S. is the puppet, not the puppeteer. And that is not something that is likely to be playing well in Washington.

The U.S. has finally figured out the situation and is starting to squeeze each individual player, as political and economic realities are in turn squeezing the White House.

That's why there are rumors of a coup. And that's why the U.S. is testing the waters about its ability to run operations with the Iraqi army without necessarily notifying Al-Maliki.

There's much more here to be left uncovered. Yet, the situation is increasingly clear, and increasingly dangerous.

The bottom line is that Al-Maliki and his ineffective government are in the way of achieving some kind of order in Iraq. And that suggests that his days might be numbered.

© 2006 Joe Duarte, M.D.
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