The Second Estimate for Q3 GDP, to one decimal, rose to 3.6 percent from the 2.8 percent of the Advance Estimate. Investing.com had forecast 3.0 percent. The GDP deflator used to calculate real (inflation-adjusted) GDP was lifted slightly from 1.9 percent to 2.0 percent.
Currently, market breadth is very strong with over 80% of stocks in long-term upward trends and does not indicate a top is in the process of being formed. Also, more than 92% of the 50 states in the US are experiencing economic growth and the risk of a recession is quite remote.
It’s been dubbed the “Least Loved” Bull market in history. The US-stock market rally is now 57-months old, and over this time period, the S&P-500 index has climbed a “wall of worry,” rising +170% from its March 9th, 2009 low, and hitting an all-time high, above the 1,800-level.
It is not really clear yet whether the recession in the euro area has ended. The rule-of-thumb definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth is not very helpful and, in fact, is not used by the official arbiter in the US.
Today the Institute for Supply Management published its latest Non-Manufacturing Report. The headline NMI Composite Index is at 53.9 percent, signaling slower growth than last month's 55.4 percent.
The world’s economy is growing at a tepid pace and the majority of central banks are pursuing expansionary monetary policies. Furthermore, the central banks of the developed world are engaged in unprecedented asset purchases and it appears as though this ‘stimulus’ will continue for the foreseeable future.
Officials from Iran made a deal with six countries (the US, Russia, China, England, France, and Germany)—in exchange for suspending the world's sanctions on Iran, Iran will curb its nuclear weapons program.
The front door is covered with official pronouncements of "the China Dream" and blustery demands of hegemony, but the back door is choked with members of the financial/political Elite fleeing China and taking their wealth with them.
Most people — certainly most governments and economists — define inflation as a general rise in prices. But this is wrong. Inflation is an increase in the money supply, of which a rising general price level is just one possible result — and not the most common one.