Michael Shedlock's picture

New home sales surprised in a massive way this morning, blowing out all estimates to the high side. New home sales came in at 619,000 compared to a Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate of 523,000 at a seasonally...

Matthew Kerkhoff's picture

Ask ten economists what causes recessions, and you’re likely to get fifteen different answers. Some will point to supply or demand shocks, policy errors, inflation, or sticky prices, while others, such as Hyman Minsky, will point toward fragility caused, oddly enough, by stability.

Jeffrey D Saut's picture

Market bubbles occur when the price of an asset significantly deviates from its intrinsic value. There have been numerous bubbles predicted in my 20 years as a professional investor. Fortunately, only two, from the perspective of US investors...

Michael Shedlock's picture

New accounting rules show Chicago has understated its pension liabilities by $11.5 billion. At the end of 2015, the stated liability was $7.1 billion. Today it’s $18.6 billion. That’s a jump in net liabilities of 168%.

Tom McClellan's picture

There is a major cycle low looming for gold prices. Ideally, it should arrive as a price low in late 2016. But based on history, it could arrive anytime between August 2016 and March 2017, and still fit within the normal tolerance.

Matthew Kerkhoff's picture

As technical analysts, we can easily become mired in price charts, forgetting that things like corporate profits and economic data can help fill in the back story behind the price action. Sometimes we forget that when we buy shares of stock...

Andrew Zatlin's picture

For most American households, everything is fine. But for more and more households, things are not so good. The industrial sector’s recession has spread and it’s getting more impactful. That’s one leak. Another is that income growth is slowing.

Michael Shedlock's picture

In addition to competing GDP “Nowcasts” between the Atlanta Fed and the New York Fed, at least three financial sites offer a “Brexit Tracker” using that name. Let’s dive in with a look at the three models, all based on polls.

Kurt Kallaus's picture

Our personal background expertise is exposed to the materials sector of manufacturing. We produce the tools and heavy duty machines for many industries all over the globe. In our parochial servicing of global demand, we continue to see...

Michael Shedlock's picture

Retail department store sales are in a funk. Macys, Nordstrom, Dillards, Kohls, and Ralph Lauren have all reported dismal sales or profits. On Wednesday, Macy’s reported the worst quarterly sales since the recession. On Thursday, Nordstrom did the same.