My last blog entry inspired an old Brazilian friend of mine, with whom I hadn’t had any contact for years, to comment on this section of the interview...
In past missives I have discussed why I do not believe the Cyclical Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is a good measure of valuations. The problem is that the CAPE uses a 10-year backward looking average of earnings.
While Bill Gross is capturing headlines today, what carries far greater significance to the market is the action in the junk bond markets. Someone in the space yelled fire at the start of the year and investors have been heading for the exits.
The Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for September came in at 84.6, unchanged from the September Preliminary reading but up from the 82.5 August final. This is the highest level since July of last year, 14 months ago. Today's number was a tick below the Investing.com forecast of 84.7.
The US dollar is extending its recent gains. There does not appear to be a new driver. Rather, the momentum, without meeting official resistance, is encouraging piling on.
While we have likely seen a short-term low today and could see the markets recover in the days ahead, I would treat any bounce with a healthy dose of caution given the numerous bearish divergences and non-confirmations currently present.
The real reason global oil prices are falling doesn’t have much to do with a bump in the amount of refined products that are being exported from the U.S. In actuality, it’s the same reason that coal prices have been cut in half over the last two years.
The astonishing surge in leverage in late 1999 peaked in March 2000, the same month that the S&P 500 hit its all-time daily high, although the highest monthly close for that year was five months later in August. A similar surge began in 2006, peaking in July 2007, three months before the market peak.
In this report, I present a plan, inspired by the ‘Scottish Enlightenment’ of the 18th century, that would enable the Scots, probably in less than six years, to become the most prosperous Anglosphere region in the world. It won’t be easy, but then the easy isn’t for the brave.
After a huge 75% rally from November 2012 through May of 2013, the TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index) has largely been consolidating since. Recent signs of life, however, suggest the TOPIX could be setting up for another strong run.