An interesting article on MarketWatch today caught my attention. The subhead is the money quote, “Back in April every economist in a survey thought yields would rise. Guess what they did next.”
Earnings remain front and center in today’s session, with positive results from a number of industry leaders helping boost investor confidence. Hard to tell whether the mood will last through the entire session or not, but markets made a very strong open.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.
How the markets behave in the coming weeks will go a long way to help determine if the September-October correction was the start of a new bear market or just a normal correction in a bull market...
Favorable looking headlines from China and Europe and a mixed batch of earnings reports provide the backdrop for today’s trading action. The GDP report out of China shows that country’s growth falling to its level in years, but it nevertheless came in better than expected.
The drop in U.S. bond yields is perhaps the biggest surprise for investors this year. The gradual decline in Federal Reserve buying, faster growth, and the prospects for a rate hike in 2015 were expected to lift bond yields.
After last week’s tumultuous markets one of my clients sent me an email saying “I am so relieved your constant talk about worsening imbalances kept us from getting too complacent. Things really are as bad as you keep saying.”
Friday’s strong finish to last week’s extremely volatile session may not be the end of the market’s weak run. We must add, however, that this morning’s weak indicated open isn’t directly related to the issues that weighed on stocks last week.
When the McClellan A-D Summation Index makes a big move in a short amount of time, that action contains important information. This week, I’ll show a pair of charts that help to make this point.
Stocks turned around Thursday afternoon to close the session modestly in the green and start today’s session on a very positive note. The favorable shift notwithstanding, market sentiment remains fragile and...