Kurt Kallaus's picture

When US stocks broke to new record highs in July we began to see excessive optimism creeping into the indices. In August and September, we warned that a top was forming and lower prices into October were likely.

Chris Puplava's picture

While the current presidential election is getting all of the attention, my bet is the US economy will likely return to front page news next month given the deterioration underway. If these trends continue, consumer spending this holiday season (or lack of) could mark...

Matthew Kerkhoff's picture

Looking at Fed Fund futures prices, it’s evident that the market is pricing in a rate hike for December. You can see this in the chart below, which shows nearly 70% of market participants expecting the Fed Funds rate to be 25 – 50 basis points higher following that meeting.

Patrick Schotanus's picture

The myth of the killer (or evil) clown has a long history, dating back to at least the nineteenth century. Apart from Stephen King’s Pennywise, modern culture has produced a number of exemplary specimens, including the Joker in the Batman movies. It is their “double-faced” trickery...

Michael Shedlock's picture

The Dallas police and firefighters pension fund has just 45% of the money it needs to cover benefits. The fund rates to be out of money in 15 years at the current rate of withdrawals. For those eligible, the sane thing to do is retire...

Adrian Ash's picture

Gold markets need gold, and that can only ever come out of a mine in the first place or come from a refinery when recycled, writes Adrian Ash of BullionVault, currently in Singapore attending the London Bullion Market...

Marc Chandler's picture

The price of oil has risen more than 20% over the past month. It is being driven by ideas that OPEC (and Russia) may implement a freeze or an output cut at the end of next month. At the same time, US crude stocks trended lower.

Charles Bolin's picture

Balance sheet recessions often take decades to recover from. The current budget deficit is less than 3% and not excessive by historical standards. He describes a trade-off in balance sheet recessions between higher debt/GDP ratios and severe recessions or depressions...

Clif Droke's picture

America’s economic condition is truly a “tale of two cities.” Upper middle class and wealthy earners have never been more flush thanks in large part to the record liquidity creation of the last eight years as well as to their financial market exposure.

Ben Hunt PhD's picture

The other week I was driving in downtown Los Angeles, late for an appointment. The road I needed to turn onto was just past the freeway overpass, but I got confused and turned onto the freeway on-ramp.