Ben Hunt PhD's picture

The central idea of "Essence of Decision" is this: the dominant academic theory to explain the world’s events is a high-level, rational expectations model based on formal economics, a theory that ignores the impact of bureaucratic imperatives and institutional politics...

Robert Rapier's picture

If you happen to be interested in the topic of “peak oil”, you almost certainly know the name M. King Hubbert. While you may know that Hubbert is widely credited with accurately predicting the peak of US oil production, you may not know...

Tom McClellan's picture

The regular McClellan Oscillator is based on Advance-Decline (A-D) data for the NYSE. But the same calculation can be done on other sets of A-D data. This week’s chart looks at an interesting example of that, with a big...

Charles Hugh Smith's picture

Numbers like gross domestic product (GDP) and the unemployment rate no longer provide insight into how our economy works. As the status quo narratives and metrics lose their explanatory value, defenders of the status quo frantically...

Marc Chandler's picture

There has been much discussion in the US presidential campaign about immigration, especially from Mexico. Trump has proposed a wall for the 2000 mile border. Different types of fences are on about a third of the border as it stands today.

Michael Shedlock's picture

Speculation has it that Fed governor Lael Brainard, an interest rates dove, would signal she was ready for rate hikes in a speech today. Instead, I wrote, Strike Three on September Rate Hike: Brainard Urges “Prudence”.

Charles Bolin's picture

Of the monthly data that I track, 46% are trending negative compared to 62% last month. Of the quarterly data, 67% is trending worse. The chart below shows my Investment Indicator for the average of the Technology and Financial corrections...

Axel G Merk's picture

It ain't working. Eight years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, central bank chiefs suggest they have saved the world but have they done so? We argue central banks have become part of the problem, not the solution.

Clif Droke's picture

The past year has seen its fair share of worries. From the China slowdown to the Brexit, successive waves of overseas fear have rolled onto our shores since 2015, yet none of them were the Tsunamis the bears had predicted.

Andrew Zatlin's picture

What makes me think the economy is slowing? Because that’s what corporate America is saying. We know that there’s an industrial recession going on… even if we remove those commodity impacted sectors like materials.

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