John Butler's picture

With few exceptions, commodity prices have fallen sharply in recent months, to their lowest levels in over a year. Relative to stock market indices, broad commodity indices are now at their lowest levels since the late-1990s dotcom boom.

Michael Pettis's picture

This may be excessively optimistic on my part, but there seems to be a slow change in the way the world thinks about reserve currencies. For a long time it was widely accepted that reserve currency status granted the provider of the currency substantial economic benefits.

Urban Carmel's picture

In May we started a recurring monthly review of all the main economic data. At the time, the consensus view was that growth in wages and employment were accelerating and that this would lead to a meaningful increase in inflation above the Fed's 2% target. So far, this has been wrong.

Sheraz Mian's picture

The strong jobs report confirms that the U.S. economy’s fundamentals are strong enough to sustain its positive momentum despite the sub-par outlook for its trading partners in Europe, Japan and China. This report also shows that the soft reading for the preceding month was an outlier.

Doug Short's picture

Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month...

Marc Chandler's picture

This seems to be the first time in several months that ECB President Draghi has been rather anti-climactic. The disappointment or the "sell the rumor, buy the fact" scenario we suggested is, in fact, unfolding, and the euro is correcting higher.

Ben Hunt PhD's picture

Two years ago, the new seven-member Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party Politburo — the most powerful political entity in the country — was introduced to great fanfare. All seven men walked on stage wearing a dark suit and a red tie, but to me the most striking aspect of their appearance was their hair.

Robert Rapier's picture

One of the 2014 predictions that I made back in January was “The crude oil export ban will not be lifted in 2014.” The present ban on U.S. crude oil exports dates to the The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) of 1975.

Doug Short's picture

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income (PI) in August rose 0.3%. Transfer Payments (TP), which includes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, government & private pensions and miscellaneous welfare programs) rose 0.7%.

Sheraz Mian's picture

Today’s data from China and Japan provides further evidence that the emerging signs of a growth spurt at home will remain unsupported by weakness abroad. This may not be a big deal for U.S. economic growth, but it could become a challenge for the corporate earnings picture.

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