Sheraz Mian's picture

Monday’s pullback appears on track to continue into today’s session as well, with overnight weakness in Asia carrying into Europe and weighing on U.S. sentiment. Chinese stocks pulled back sharply in response to new...

Marc Chandler's picture

The new week has begun with two macro-economic disappointments out of Asia. Signs of further softening in China, the world's second largest economy, are fanning speculation that additional easing measures will be delivered in the coming weeks.

Doug Short's picture

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

Sheraz Mian's picture

A total of +321K jobs were created in the U.S. economy, way above consensus estimates of around +230K and the 12-month average of about 224K. Revisions to the prior two months were revised higher, with October now at +243K from +214K and September now at +271K from...

Urban Carmel's picture

The fall in oil prices is gathering much attention. Since mid June, light crude oil (WTIC) has fallen by about 40%. Current prices are the lowest since September 2009, more than 4 years ago.

Matthew Kerkhoff's picture

It's a challenging global environment but investing is a game of relativity, and relative to the rest of the world, the U.S. sits alone atop the mountain. Most economies in the Eurozone and around the world are flat lining, while Japan and Italy are technically in recession.

Marc Chandler's picture

During the Great Financial Crisis, Hyman Minsky was rediscovered. Minsky's insight was that long periods of steadily rising asset prices encourages financial engineering and leveraged bets that assume a continued rise in asset prices.

Sheraz Mian's picture

Stocks today were indicated to open essentially flat even before this morning’s ADP report and the labor market report, which didn’t add any excitement. The government jobs report coming out on Friday is the key economic read on the docket now.

Marc Chandler's picture

The U.S. dollar is extending its advance as the divergence theme moves into overdrive. The dollar has drawn close to JPY119.50. The euro has fallen to new lows near $1.2320, having been turned back from $1.25 on Monday. The Australian dollar has been pushed briefly below $0.8390.

Keith Weiner's picture

This is a brief follow up on the Supply and Demand Report of 30 November. In that report, we observed an extraordinary development in the gold market. We made several predictions, which came true almost immediately.