The euro has slipped to its lowest level against the Swiss franc since late 2012. It has come within about 20 pips of the floor that the SNB has imposed at CHF1.20. The referendum at the end of the month is capturing the attention of market participants.
Leading up to the September peak in the markets we were seeing new highs in the market being met by smaller and smaller spikes in new 52-week highs. This indicated market breadth was deteriorating and we were on shaky ground. However, since the October lows we've now seen...
Today's report of 214K new nonfarm jobs was a bit lower than most economists had forecast, but the lower number was more than offset by upward revisions to the new jobs for August (from 180K to 203K) and September (from 248K to 256K). The unemployment rate dropped a notch from 5.9% to 5.8%.
The jobs report may have missed estimates, but it provides plenty of confirmation that the U.S. economy can sustain its growth momentum despite the sub-par outlook for its trading partners in Europe, Japan and China.
Last week I wrote about a rather unique way to look at the sentiment data from the weekly Investors Intelligence survey. This week, I want to expand on that topic a little bit more, and cover the one piece of data in that weekly report which gets the least attention.
In the wake of falling oil prices, tensions in Ukraine, and sanction madness that hurts both Russia and the Eurozone, the ruble has been on a huge slide.
Contrary to the leaks, ECB President Draghi stuck to his intent that the ECB's balance sheet move back toward the 2012 levels. He clearly confirmed that this was unanimous. This was the first time such a reference was made in the introductory remarks, which gives it more gravitas.
While the U.S. economy remains strong and our stock markets have come roaring back to new all-time highs, investors should not get lulled into bullish euphoria. Europe remains a mess with serious risks of deflation and recession...
Although I think China is clearly much more integrated as an optimal currency zone than Europe is today, it is probably less integrated than the US (I will use the US and Europe as the two extreme cases between which China falls). China of course does not have the problems of multiple sovereignty...
A favorable labor market reading adds to the optimism at the conclusion to the midterm elections. Hard to tell how long the mood can be sustained, but historically the post-midterm period has been a good one for stocks.