Thoroughly relishing his “I told you so” moment, Paul Krugman titled his Friday New York Times piece “Not Enough Inflation”: “Ever since the financial crisis struck, and the Federal Reserve began ‘printing money’ in an attempt to contain the damage, there have been dire warnings about inflation — and not just from the Ron Paul/Glenn Beck types.
With the recent volatility in gold and silver prices, it would be nice to get an idea of what kind of sentiment is being generated. Measures of sentiment tell us if there is too much optimism or pessimism in a particular market.
Theoretically, I believe, this indicator will become more useful as the timeframe of its coverage expands. Manufacturing may be a more sensitive barometer than Non-Manufacturing activity, but we are increasingly a services-oriented economy, which explains my intention to keep this series on the radar.
The global economy is slowing as are inflationary pressures. This is the type of backdrop from which we have seen increased monetary stimulus. If the past history of the last three years has been any guide, we should expect the world’s biggest central banks to begin easing once again, with any talks of “tapering” largely premature.
Two weeks ago I wrote about the current debate over the 2010 paper by Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart (hereinafter referred to as RR) on the correlation between debt and GDP growth.
Today the Institute for Supply Management published its February Manufacturing Report. The latest headline PMI at 50.7 percent is the fifth month above 50 after one month below. However today's number was below the Briefing.com consensus of 51.0 percent.
In the aftermath of the forced confiscation of bank accounts in Cyprus, the question that clients ask me most is, “could it happen here?” “Here” is wherever the client lives or invests, and could be the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, or any other country.
Let us start by remembering the most important aspect of Agri-Commodities. They are not produced in a factory. Corn, today’s example, is produced by placing a seed in dirt with the proper amount of water and nutrients.
A working paper published by the Economics Department of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) last week examined the long term trends that are driving global crude oil supply and demand levels and hence influencing oil prices.
Year-to-date, the U.S. dollar is up; does that mean we are in a rising dollar environment? Or is it an opportunity to diversify out of the greenback?
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