Weekly initial jobless claims fell 19k in the week ending July 18 to 284k. This represents a new cyclical low. The four-week moving average, used to smooth out this volatile series, also has fallen to new lows.
Given how well the credit markets warned of the last two major turning points in the market I respect the message of the credit markets over the stock market when the two do not confirm each other, as they are currently.
The standard way to make forecasts of almost anything is to look at recent trends and assume that this trend will continue, at least for the next several years. With world oil production, the trend in oil production looks fairly benign, with the trend slightly upward (Figure 1).
The July Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this morning puts the June year-over-year inflation rate at 2.07%, fractionally off last month's 2.13% 19-month high...
The euro slipped through the low of the year and the weekly trend line going back to 2012. However, it found bids near $1.3460 and has recovered a bit. The key on the upside now is $1.3500. A move above there and the technical tone can begin stabilizing.
I recalled those words from my friend Shad Rowe, who is the eagled-eyed captain of the Dallas-based money management firm Greenbrier Partners, as I listened to Janet Yellen's testimony last week. Ms. Yellen was opining that the action in social media and biotech stocks is reminiscent of what Shad was warning about in Forbes magazine 23 years ago.
There has been a clear preference this year for large cap stocks over small cap. This is readily visible when looking at performance of the Russell indices with the mega cap stocks like the Russell Top 50 Index up just under 5% year-to-date (YTD) while...
Broad-based increases in the LEI over the last six months signal an economy that is expanding in the near term and may even somewhat accelerate in the second half.
It’s time to do a technical checkup on the market. There have been a couple of trends to note recently that indicate where investors should bias their equity allocation. As I have mentioned a few times lately, there has been a large concern over valuations in the market.
The Philly Fed's Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. The latest gauge of General Activity came in at 23.9, an increase from last month's 17.8.