Matthew Kerkhoff's picture

All eyes will be on the Fed this week, as they deliberate whether to raise rates for the first time in nearly a decade. The decision will be arduous, to say the least, as there has been a growing divergence in fundamental indicators, and global markets have already tightened conditions on the Fed’s behalf.

Clif Droke's picture

The S&P 500 Index had its worst August since 2001, while the Dow’s 6.6 percent drop was its biggest since declining 15 percent in August 1998. Most investors consider the September-October period to be the witching months...

Marc Chandler's picture

The reasons why Brazil was downgraded to sub-investment grade are clear, and don't need further discussion beyond noting that the numbers are going to get much worse before they get better.

Sheraz Mian's picture

Favorable comments from Chinese officials are helping stocks start today’s session solidly in the green, a day after Tuesday’s very strong gains. Today’s all-around positivity notwithstanding, I am skeptical that we...

Matthew Kerkhoff's picture

This correction has been puzzling, to say the least, and I find myself endlessly deliberating whether this is an emotional correction, or as some other analysts have put it: GFC 2.0. At the moment, based on the...

Kurt Kallaus's picture

According to the recent Wall Street Journal survey, economists don’t think the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin the long anticipated rate hike trend in September, however all the economic data they will gather to...

Andrew Zatlin's picture

Inventory levels are too high… across all sectors. More critically, they have been surging for months, and are back to recessionary levels.

Urban Carmel's picture

Our key message over the past year has been that (a) growth is positive but modest, in the range of ~3-4% (nominal), and; (b) current growth is lower than in prior periods of economic expansion and a return to 1980s or 1990s style growth does not appear likely.

Sheraz Mian's picture

The jobs report came short of estimates, but the report’s internals are strong enough to keep the prospect of a Fed hike this month very real. The market’s initial reaction to the report reflects the view that this report takes us towards lift-off in the coming meeting.

Michael Shedlock's picture

The never-ending push for 2% price inflation is absurd to the point of being counterproductive. However, stubborn central bank mules don't care about history or common sense. They just keep doing what their...