Thoroughly relishing his “I told you so” moment, Paul Krugman titled his Friday New York Times piece “Not Enough Inflation”: “Ever since the financial crisis struck, and the Federal Reserve began ‘printing money’ in an attempt to contain the damage, there have been dire warnings about inflation — and not just from the Ron Paul/Glenn Beck types.
Theoretically, I believe, this indicator will become more useful as the timeframe of its coverage expands. Manufacturing may be a more sensitive barometer than Non-Manufacturing activity, but we are increasingly a services-oriented economy, which explains my intention to keep this series on the radar.
The global economy is slowing as are inflationary pressures. This is the type of backdrop from which we have seen increased monetary stimulus. If the past history of the last three years has been any guide, we should expect the world’s biggest central banks to begin easing once again, with any talks of “tapering” largely premature.
Today the Institute for Supply Management published its February Manufacturing Report. The latest headline PMI at 50.7 percent is the fifth month above 50 after one month below. However today's number was below the Briefing.com consensus of 51.0 percent.
In the aftermath of the forced confiscation of bank accounts in Cyprus, the question that clients ask me most is, “could it happen here?” “Here” is wherever the client lives or invests, and could be the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, or any other country.
A working paper published by the Economics Department of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) last week examined the long term trends that are driving global crude oil supply and demand levels and hence influencing oil prices.