While we have likely seen a short-term low today and could see the markets recover in the days ahead, I would treat any bounce with a healthy dose of caution given the numerous bearish divergences and non-confirmations currently present.
The real reason global oil prices are falling doesn’t have much to do with a bump in the amount of refined products that are being exported from the U.S. In actuality, it’s the same reason that coal prices have been cut in half over the last two years.
The astonishing surge in leverage in late 1999 peaked in March 2000, the same month that the S&P 500 hit its all-time daily high, although the highest monthly close for that year was five months later in August. A similar surge began in 2006, peaking in July 2007, three months before the market peak.
In this report, I present a plan, inspired by the ‘Scottish Enlightenment’ of the 18th century, that would enable the Scots, probably in less than six years, to become the most prosperous Anglosphere region in the world. It won’t be easy, but then the easy isn’t for the brave.
After a huge 75% rally from November 2012 through May of 2013, the TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index) has largely been consolidating since. Recent signs of life, however, suggest the TOPIX could be setting up for another strong run.
As things get dicier globally, assets in periphery nations typically get dumped as mobile capital flees risk and migrates to lower risk core nations and currencies.
This Great Graphic was on Reuters. It shows cumulative GDP growth for G7 countries over two five-year periods. The first covers the five-year period through the end of 2007. The second period covers the most recent five-year period.
The start of trading for shares of Alibaba and the retail availability of the new iPhones are today’s big developments. And the Scotland news is finally behind us, with Scots deciding to retain their 300-year old union with England.
The markets felt comfortable with the dovish reassurance that came out of the Fed meeting, with the ‘considerable time’ phrase in the statement telling investors that the FOMC was in no hurry to start raising rates in the spring — the feared timeline for a quicker rate hiking process.
The Fed remains the market’s sole preoccupation today as investors look for clues to the future course of monetary policy in the central bank’s official statement this afternoon. The ‘considerable time’ debate has been dominating market participants’ discussion of the Fed.