It’s time to do a technical checkup on the market. There have been a couple of trends to note recently that indicate where investors should bias their equity allocation. As I have mentioned a few times lately, there has been a large concern over valuations in the market.
The Philly Fed's Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. The latest gauge of General Activity came in at 23.9, an increase from last month's 17.8.
U.S. housing starts in June collapsed. The 9.3% decline contrasts with expectations for a 1.9% increase, according to a Bloomberg survey. Adding insult to injury the May series was revised down to show a decline of 7.3% rather than 6.5% as initially reported. And worse, the building permits fell 4.2%. They were expected to have risen by 3.0%.
Once an economic recovery picks up steam and inflationary pressures begin to rise, the market's reaction function "switches polarity" and incoming economic data is now interpreted as a negative market signal because it means there is a greater chance the Fed will be raising interest rates in the near future. This is where we find ourselves now.
In an age when governments of every political leaning and ideological stripe distort economic data to promote their parties’ interests, it is hardly surprising that the nation’s inflation rate is reported in a manner that best suits their political needs.
While I was in the Pacific Northwest and Canada most of last week, I did have the privilege of listening to J.P. Morgan’s (JPM/$55.80/Strong Buy) Chief Market Strategist last Monday. Dr. David Kelly has long been known for his keen insights on the equity markets...
This Great Graphic was tweeted by Cigolo and retweeted by Pauly@spz_trader, which is how we saw it. The data is from Thomson Reuters Datastream. It shows US and euro area industrial production since 2002.
We’re all familiar with the Queen of Hearts from Alice in Wonderland, less so with the Red King. He’s sleeping all the while, and when Alice goes to wake him up she’s warned off by Tweedledee and Tweedledum, who tell her that everything in Wonderland — including Alice herself...
Once again I am going to discuss debt, and my discussion will be mainly conceptual. I suspect that many of my regular readers might wonder why I keep returning to this subject – and, often enough, keep saying the same things.
Back in September 2013, I wrote about a unique new way to forecast inflation. That piece called for a pickup in inflation, which has materialized, and so it is worth taking another look to see what more is ahead.