As things get dicier globally, assets in periphery nations typically get dumped as mobile capital flees risk and migrates to lower risk core nations and currencies.
This Great Graphic was on Reuters. It shows cumulative GDP growth for G7 countries over two five-year periods. The first covers the five-year period through the end of 2007. The second period covers the most recent five-year period.
The start of trading for shares of Alibaba and the retail availability of the new iPhones are today’s big developments. And the Scotland news is finally behind us, with Scots deciding to retain their 300-year old union with England.
The markets felt comfortable with the dovish reassurance that came out of the Fed meeting, with the ‘considerable time’ phrase in the statement telling investors that the FOMC was in no hurry to start raising rates in the spring — the feared timeline for a quicker rate hiking process.
The Fed remains the market’s sole preoccupation today as investors look for clues to the future course of monetary policy in the central bank’s official statement this afternoon. The ‘considerable time’ debate has been dominating market participants’ discussion of the Fed.
The story line for the U.S. petro-dollar is bound to get better in the years ahead. The U.S. has more recoverable natural gas than any other country. This represents a century’s worth of output and can support peak production at more than twice the 2013 level.
Should the USD break out from its 2005 to present bearish trend, we should see some significant developments in inter-market relationships. For starters, the relative performance of U.S. stocks relative to the MSCI World Stock Index Excluding the U.S. shows a strong correlation to the USD Index.
The terms of the debate have shifted. The issue now is when does the Fed hike rates next year. And further, how will the U.S. stock and bond market respond. This Great Graphic appeared in the Wall Street Journal, and was tweeted by Pedro da Costa.
Gold is still in a downtrend, if you examine a chart of gold prices measured in dollars. But gold in euros looks much stronger, and that’s actually a bullish condition, eventually. People often ask at what dollar price is gold likely to find support or resistance.
After bottoming out in 2012, America’s housing market has climbed to a 6-year high and it is probable that the 2006-record will be surpassed within the next 2-3 years.