I generally do not get too surprised, but this year has been the exception. I have been surprised by the stunning drop in the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which has fallen from roughly 3% at year’s end to a yield yelp low of 2.4% last week.
Most traders who look at options market data for market insights like to focus on the "Put/Call Volume Ratio", which examines the differences between the number of trades in bullish versus bearish bets. I use that data in my work, and even get into differences between the Put/Call Ratio for equity options versus index options.
So the second estimate on first quarter GDP was released today – down 1 percent instead of up 0.1 percent. This was the first decline since 2011. Does that mean we’re headed for recession? The financial press has defined a recession as two negative quarters in real GDP. Is 0.1 percent really a decline worth noting? I think not.
There is a sea of economic green spread out across the country as 48 out of 50 states are projected to continue economic expansion over the next six months. Confirming the health of the stock market is the new high in the cumulative AD line for the S&P 1500, which typically peaks well before the market.
Friedrich Hayek was the first Austrian School economist to win the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science. Yet Hayek took issue with the characterization of modern economics as a ‘science’ in the conventional sense. This is because the scientific method requires theories to be falsifiable and repeatable under stable conditions.
The US dollar remains firm against most of the major and active emerging market currencies. The euro and yen have thus far remained confined to yesterday's ranges while sterling saw yesterday's losses extended...
Signs of a market bottom have been building over the last week with today serving as no exception. Today, we received the Markit Economics flash composite purchasing managers’ index for May, which hit a 4-year high of 58.6, up from 55.6 in April and up from last May’s 54.5 reading.
It might seem almost churlish to wonder what would happen if Spain were to leave the euro. The official European position is that the battle of the euro has been pretty much won, and anyone who argues otherwise will be accused of being a euro hater, an Anglo-Saxon or, even worse, a writer for the Financial Times.
It was all over the news last week, both mainstream and gold sites. Barclays was caught manipulating the gold price. They were fined £26M, and forced to pay a client who was damaged by their action.
...how long does it take the Street to identify an elephant in the room? Apparently the answer to that question is a time period longer than should be the case. As portrayed in the chart below, Agri-Food prices have been rising fairly dramatically thus far this year.