In the week ending December 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 280,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 289,000. The 4-week moving average was 290,250, a decrease of 8,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 298,750.
The divergence investment theme is based on positive developments in the US and not-so-positive developments elsewhere. If the consensus ends up being wrong, the US narrative may be the most susceptible to disappointment. There seems to be three different ways that could unfold.
From an official standpoint, the Great Recession ended 60 months before the most recent gasoline sales monthly data point. But if we want a simple confirmation that the economy is in recovery, gasoline sales continues to be the wrong place to look.
Stocks have been on a tear in the last few sessions and the trend will likely continue in today’s session as well, with the extremely positive GDP report adding to market sentiment.
The holiday-shortened week has begun. Some causes of consternation have eased. Oil prices are firmer after the pre-weekend recovery. The Russian ruble, where the focus has been greater than the exposure, has continued to recover following signs that China may be willing to offer it more assistance.
Since late 2012, the Bank of Japan has launched an all-out war to devalue their currency. Why? As outlined previously, Japan faces two ticking time bombs of mounting debts and worsening demographics. The implications of these forces for the global markets are important to understand.
The Latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for November is now available. The index rose 0.6 percent to 105.5. October was revised to downward 104.9 percent (2004 = 100). The latest number came in slightly above the 0.5 percent forecast by Investing.com.
Break-even rates are the difference between treasuries and the same-duration Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The break-even rate turned negative yesterday for the first time since 2009.
The world’s prominent central banks are pursuing an accommodative monetary policy and this bodes well for the stock market. Remember, when it comes to investing, monetary policy trumps everything else and the risk free rate of return determines the value of every asset.
The cluster of Hindenburg Omens on the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 correctly warned of a pullback in the markets but now that we appear to be stabilizing with the FOMC meeting out of the way how should investors view the recent market weakness?