I think it’s important to acknowledge that the economy is not stateless. A change in one variable—e.g. money supply—may have a different effect depending on the states of individual actors in the economy.
The damage done to the markets is far greater than what appears on the surface as major indices have only experienced mild pullbacks. However, looking at the average decline among thousands of stocks listed on U.S. exchanges and within large indices reveals a stealth bear market occurring.
A stronger dollar encourage foreign capital to flow into the U.S., as it makes more sense to shift money into appreciating dollars (that are gaining purchasing power) than leave it in currencies that are depreciating (losing purchasing power compared to the dollar).
Panic is in the air in some places over the deadly ebola virus. Is the panic justified? Is there any cure? How deadly is ebola compared to other viruses? How many have died so far? What can be done to stop the spread?
Thursday’s indiscriminate sell-off was followed by markets in Asia and Europe, with the dour mood coming full circle into today’s session as well. Hard to tell whether this pullback has the potential to morph into the long-feared correction...
If there’s one thing billionaire venture capitalist Vinod Khosla has learned over the past decade, it’s that the oil companies aren’t as stupid as he thought. In 2004, Khosla was telling anyone who would listen to him that the only things standing in the way of...
Last week I pointed out how the Commitment of Traders (COT) Report data for currencies were pointing to a big topping condition for the dollar. That top appears to have arrived, and if the dollar heads downward then that should provide a boost to prices for all sorts of commodities.
It has been a wrenching month to hold energy stocks with the dollar rising steadily in August and in September, pushing commodity prices down. Gold has fallen from $1320 to as far as $1183. West Texas Intermediate has fallen from $100 a barrel to $86.50 at the time of this report.
The U.S. dollar's upside momentum has faded, but oil prices remain depressed. Many observers try, too hard perhaps, to link the decline in commodity prices in general, and oil in particular, to the appreciation of the dollar. Yet the situation is considerably more complicated.
What is the relationship between the market and recessions? Is there are causal relationship between the two? Does a recession lead to a decline in the market, or does a market decline foreshadow a recession?