The reason the Chained CPI is now a hot topic in the news is that it's being proposed as the method for determining cost of living adjustments for Social Security.
There is no doubt anymore that our modern market structure has problems. Nobody with a fully functioning frontal lobe will tell you that it doesn't. Still, as obvious as it is that things are broken, many of us disagree on exactly what is broken and how to go about fixing it.
As highlighted in the last few “Market’s Bill of Health” reports, the S&P 500 has been showing weakening breadth and momentum which typically occurs before short-term tops. In prior reports it was shown that weakness in cyclicals was the culprit as the defensive sectors led by health care continued to power higher. Currently, however, recent movements in the cyclical sectors suggests that their underperformance to the broad market may be ending, with a weakening USD providing the catalyst.
The lesson from the events of 2007-2008 should have been clear: Boosting GDP with loose money – as the Greenspan Fed did repeatedly between 1987 and 2005 and most damagingly between 2001 and 2005...
Once you get past the childish title, the recent bitcoin piece from Karl Denninger raises some issues that warrant consideration from bitcoin economists. Denninger is an intelligent student of the capital markets and his essay deserves a serious reply.
The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends is out today. The April update for March came in at 89.5, which puts it deep in the cellar at the 9th percentile in this series, where a distinctly recessionary mood prevails.
We all know what has been going on with Japanese politics, BOJ personnel reformation and Japanese financial markets since Abe was elected late last year. The Japanese have now joined the global central banking chorus of “whatever it takes”.