The first decade of this century was certainly interesting. We kicked it off with a massive bubble and, as usual, were told “this time is different.” The Internet was changing things and so stocks were valued by page reads or eye balls or some other “new metric.”
Former Senator Alan Simpson recently spoke with Financial Sense Newshour to give an “inside look” at Washington politics and the difficulty of implementing entitlement and tax reform. With U.S. debt levels steadily climbing, Simpson notes that eventually "debt is the money of slaves."
Jim Puplava responds to feedback received over the last few months. Has the 2014-2016 crisis window been delayed? What happened to peak oil and metals? Are you still positive on the markets and the economy?
Perhaps I should put quotation marks around the word "smart" in the title. Early in the month the smart money was saying we were going to roll over. They based this on the action of the bond market.
There are two catalysts I see that could spark a deeper correction after the present relief rally runs its course. The first being the most obvious is a further escalation on the Ukraine/Russian front and the second is a slowdown in US economic growth stemming from prior inflationary pressures.
The big news today was the shelling of an armored Russian convoy by Ukrainian forces, which sent the markets down after a positive open. Gold was also hit and dropped below $1,300 before retracing its losses on the news.
As any good market technician will tell you, rotations are the lifeblood of any bull market. The time to worry is when money stops moving from sector to sector and decides, instead, to shift en masse to a separate asset class like bonds or cash.
In his recent Big Picture, Jim Puplava says that many people have unwittingly bought into a highly addictive, sensationally-driven religion of doom and gloom.
While the decline in long-term interest rates has many confused given the recent improvement in U.S. economic data, it appears the main driver is a flight to quality alongside a weakening global economy and heightened geopolitical concerns.
Dan Wantrobski at Janney Capital Markets says the long-term correlation between stocks, interest rates, and commodities shows we are now in a secular bull market for stocks. Is this possible given current valuation levels?