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RUBBER MARKET
Weekly Review with Fernando Gonzalez
Online Trading Academy
June 5, 2006

The US Equity markets spent much time this week stabilizing the strong declines in May. As I write, the market is now well on its way into a big and sustainable bounce. All in all, the markets produced a hefty Intermediate-Term degree correction, that in its first wave, produced a 12% correction in the Naz, and approximately 6% a piece for the S&P500 and DOW. Of the 3 major measures, it was the DOW that held-up the strongest, and as the numbers clearly show, the Naz is the weakest link. This should not be a surprise, as the long-term charts on these markets make no argument that the Naz is still very ill from its 84% "crash" early in the decade.

For now, the markets are attempting to stabilize and measure the strength of Bids so as to determine whether there is enough buying volume to recover to new highs. But first, we treat the current short-term action as a bounce only, and will have to measure the retracement accordingly. Basic support and resistance combined with Fib measurements on the Short-Term level are going to play a critical role in the days ahead, so let's take a look, starting with the S&P500:

Chart Notations:

  • The Hourly Chart of the S&P500 going back to late April addresses the Short-Term market

  • Here we see the clear structure of the decline in May based on hourly bars. We also see the shape of the current attempt to recover.

  • The bounce has brought the S&P500 straight into the 50% retracement mark. This also happens to coincide with a critical low point in May. This is former Support, now serves as Resistance that we can cross-reference to the 50% mark.

  • Time-wise, however, the bounce is carrying plenty of momentum, and this upward correction does not appear to be over just yet. We should not be surprised for the market to exceed the 50% mark and move towards the 62% Fib retracement area.

  • We shall treat the area between the 50% and 62% retracement marks as a "Neutral Zone" taking the bearish posture only if the market is trading below the 50% mark, and the Bullish posture above 62%.

  • Note also that the Naz, discussed below, still has more room to bounce, next:

Chart Notations:

  • The Daily chart of the Nasdaq-100 above supplements our earlier S&P500 chart and addresses the Short-Term time frame

  • As mentioned, the Naz still has some technical room (both time and price-wise) to move upwards in the attempt to recover from the sell-off.

  • In the days ahead, as long as the market is trading in positive territory, we shall look for the Naz to make its way towards the 38% Fib retracement as marked, which we also can cross reference to former support points (blue dots). Let's look for the Bears to resume their challenge there.

Until next week: Good Luck!   Fernando Gonzalez

I always like to hear comments and suggestions: Email

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Fernando has over 6 years of high volume professional trading experience, with a long-term track record of profitability. He helped develop the original material and coursework for Online Trading Academy. He has designed and individually conducted courses for over 400 trading students and several hundred others in Lectures, Forums and Intraday participation within the Day Trading Education and Advisory Community. He has also co-authored a best-selling book: Strategies for the Online Day Trader (McGraw-Hill 1999), which reached overall best-seller list on Amazon.com & section bestseller list for Barnes & Noble and other notable sources.

DISCLAIMER: 
This newsletter is written for educational purposes only. By no means do any of its contents recommend, advocate or urge the buying, selling or holding of any financial instrument whatsoever. Trading and Investing involves high levels of risk. The author expresses personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader. The author may or may not have positions in Financial Instruments discussed in this newsletter. Future results can be dramatically different from the opinions expressed herein. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

ABOUT THE WEEKLY REVIEW:
The weekly review heavily focuses on the application of Technical Analysis on the Broad Market Levels. You will rarely see individual Stock Picks on the Weekly Review! It is the author's belief that most Individual Stocks (certainly not all) will follow the overall direction of the Broad Market that surrounds them, as well as the Sectors they comprise. Discussion is focused heavily upon the Major Market & Sector price activity. Rarely also will you see discussion of the fundamental, macro-economic or political nature in the Weekly Review. By focusing only on the technical, or price & volume aspects of the major measures of the market, Fernando hopes to satisfy any equity trader's needs for a qualified discussion and forecast of the overall direction of equities, whether it be the Short, Intermediate, or Long-Term time horizons. Whether you trade the Index Futures, Index Tracking Stocks or Individual Equity Market Instruments, having an experienced eye on the conditions of the broad market that surrounds you is extremely important!


© 2006 Fernando Gonzalez
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