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The
US Equity markets spent much time this week stabilizing the
strong declines in May. As I write, the market is now well on
its way into a big and sustainable bounce. All in all, the
markets produced a hefty Intermediate-Term degree correction,
that in its first wave, produced a 12% correction in the Naz,
and approximately 6% a piece for the S&P500 and DOW. Of the
3 major measures, it was the DOW that held-up the strongest, and
as the numbers clearly show, the Naz is the weakest link. This
should not be a surprise, as the long-term charts on these
markets make no argument that the Naz is still very ill from its
84% "crash" early in the decade.
For
now, the markets are attempting to stabilize and measure the
strength of Bids so as to determine whether there is enough
buying volume to recover to new highs. But first, we treat the
current short-term action as a bounce only, and will have to
measure the retracement accordingly. Basic support and
resistance combined with Fib measurements on the Short-Term
level are going to play a critical role in the days ahead, so
let's take a look, starting with the S&P500:

Chart
Notations:
-
The
Hourly Chart of the S&P500 going back to late April
addresses the Short-Term market
-
Here
we see the clear structure of the decline in May based on
hourly bars. We also see the shape of the current attempt to
recover.
-
The
bounce has brought the S&P500 straight into the 50%
retracement mark. This also happens to coincide with a
critical low point in May. This is former Support, now
serves as Resistance that we can cross-reference to the 50%
mark.
-
Time-wise,
however, the bounce is carrying plenty of momentum, and this
upward correction does not appear to be over just yet. We
should not be surprised for the market to exceed the 50%
mark and move towards the 62% Fib retracement area.
-
We
shall treat the area between the 50% and 62% retracement
marks as a "Neutral Zone" taking the bearish
posture only if the market is trading below the 50% mark,
and the Bullish posture above 62%.
-
Note
also that the Naz, discussed below, still has more room to
bounce, next:

Chart
Notations:
-
The
Daily chart of the Nasdaq-100 above supplements our earlier
S&P500 chart and addresses the Short-Term time frame
-
As
mentioned, the Naz still has some technical room (both time
and price-wise) to move upwards in the attempt to recover
from the sell-off.
-
In
the days ahead, as long as the market is trading in positive
territory, we shall look for the Naz to make its way towards
the 38% Fib retracement as marked, which we also can cross
reference to former support points (blue dots). Let's look
for the Bears to resume their challenge there.
Until
next week: Good Luck! Fernando Gonzalez
I
always like to hear comments and suggestions: Email
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Fernando
has over 6 years of high volume professional trading experience, with a
long-term track record of profitability. He helped develop the original
material and coursework for Online Trading Academy. He has designed and
individually conducted courses for over 400 trading students and several
hundred others in Lectures, Forums and Intraday participation within the
Day Trading Education and Advisory Community. He has also co-authored a
best-selling book: Strategies
for the Online Day Trader (McGraw-Hill 1999), which reached overall
best-seller list on Amazon.com & section bestseller list for Barnes
& Noble and other notable sources.
DISCLAIMER:
This newsletter is written for educational purposes only. By no means do
any of its contents recommend, advocate or urge the buying, selling or
holding of any financial instrument whatsoever. Trading and Investing
involves high levels of risk. The author expresses personal opinions and
will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the
reader. The author may or may not have positions in Financial
Instruments discussed in this newsletter. Future results can be
dramatically different from the opinions expressed herein. Past
performance does not guarantee future results.
ABOUT
THE WEEKLY REVIEW:
The weekly review heavily focuses
on the application of Technical Analysis on the Broad Market Levels. You
will rarely see individual Stock Picks on the Weekly Review! It is the
author's belief that most Individual Stocks (certainly not all) will
follow the overall direction of the Broad Market that surrounds them, as
well as the Sectors they comprise. Discussion is focused heavily upon
the Major Market & Sector price activity. Rarely also will you see
discussion of the fundamental, macro-economic or political nature in the
Weekly Review. By focusing only on the technical, or price & volume
aspects of the major measures of the market, Fernando hopes to satisfy
any equity trader's needs for a qualified discussion and forecast of the
overall direction of equities, whether it be the Short, Intermediate, or
Long-Term time horizons. Whether you trade the Index Futures, Index
Tracking Stocks or Individual Equity Market Instruments, having an
experienced eye on the conditions of the broad market that surrounds you
is extremely important!

© 2006 Fernando Gonzalez
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