Yes, we are, and I expect it will surprise virtually everyone in our nation’s capital and Wall Street by its ferocity, depth and duration. It will be the catastrophic event forecast by Robert Prechter in his prophetic book At the Crest of the Tidal Wave. It will be greater than the 1929 Crash and followed by an even greater Depression, perhaps like the 15-year old Japanese depression still underway.

The bear market rally that started in the Spring of 2003 is now ending and the huge decline will not end until all of our major market averages are far below their earlier lows. Robert Prechter has been predicting for many years that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end below 400. This one prediction should shake up at least a few of my readers and change some of their thinking.

How am I so sure of what is ahead? It's because I have been following 3 vital publications using the Elliott Wave theory since 1995. I understand the wave structure of world markets since the colossal South Sea Bubble swept thru London and England in the 1720 period. The event we are expecting is, according to the Elliott waves, a disaster comparable in magnitude to the London debacle that caught Sir Isaac Newton, the Mayor of London and even the King among its victims. It was followed by a 62-year depression, which Prechter thinks may happen again in this century.

The best way to understand Prechter's thinking is to read his large and somewhat difficult book, At the Crest of the Tidal Wave, and his more recent paperback, Conquer the Crash. His publishing company is offering in October a free month’s subscription to their 2 U.S. monthly and 3 weekly publications. I strongly urge readers to phone and subscribe now as it may change all your thinking. [info]

YES, WE ARE NOW ENTERING A VERY REAL MAJOR BEAR MARKET

It may last for several decades and certainly will require a major change to your way of life and thinking about investing. You will need to divest yourself of your favorite growth funds and limit your thinking to the most stable funds we have discussed in previous letters. That means funds like the two Hussman funds and the Permanent Portfolio Fund. It means funds that short the market, if you have had experience with them over the past five years. If not, please proceed to use them with great caution. For some time I have been building a portfolio that is 200% short the market. I do not recommend this to any reader who lacks extensive short experience.

A PERSONAL NOTE TO MY READERS

Since retiring from a full-time writing job earlier this year, I have spent most of my time rebuilding my 90-year old body so I can enjoy a happy retirement. I have almost recovered from surgery to replace my left hip. More recently, I have had cataract surgery in both eyes, which was very successful since I may be able to discard my lifelong eye glasses.

I have managed at least a short reply to every e-mail received since retiring. I do enjoy your messages, but expect to be traveling widely with a new wife who is 20 years my junior and my answers may be delayed.

I wish all my readers of both sexes, young and old, a happy and prosperous life of investing based on proven sound principles as outlined in my many essays.

© 2005 Robert B. Gordon, Sc. D.
Dr, Gordon's Editorial Archive

Robert B. Gordon, Sc. D.
Sun City West, Arizona
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Webmaster Note:  I have had the great pleasure and privilege of posting Dr. Gordon's essays since 2002. There are some great articles in Bob's archive. I hope you will take some time to review them. My favorites are Memoir and A Letter To My Grandchildren because they show the "heart" of the man. ~ Mary Puplava