The market seems to be cheering the surprisingly weak jobs report in the hope that it will lead to a more favorable Fed policy. But in order to reach that conclusion, you first need to believe this jobs read. And I find it extremely hard to believe it.
It is now six years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and considering that the US economy has officially been in recovery for the past five years, that equity indexes have put in new all-time highs, and that credit markets are once again ebullient to the point of carelessness...
Gold and silver had a bad week, with gold falling $25 to a low of $1262 by the Comex close yesterday, and silver by $0.50. This morning UK-time prices opened a little better on overnight physical demand, no doubt stimulated by those lower prices.
Mario Draghi came as close to the “full Monty” as he possibly could by cutting interest rates 10 basis points to a measly five basis points, and increasing the negative deposit facility rate to -20 basis points. In addition, he promised to begin buying about $400 billion worth of asset-backed securities in about a month.
China's urban population may grow by as many as 230 million people in the next 15 years. But most growth will take place not in metropolises like Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing but in the myriad small and medium-sized satellite cities around them.
Today the Institute for Supply Management published its latest Non-Manufacturing Report. The headline NMI Composite Index is at 59.6 percent, up from last month's 58.7 percent and another record high for this relatively new indicator...
Given the prior inflationary move seen earlier in the year, it is likely we should expect a moderation in economic momentum that has been building since Q1 of this year. Should growth moderate we are likely to see more economic releases surprise to the downside.
It's increasingly likely that Argentina will come up with a way to get around a U.S. supreme court ruling on bond payouts. Here is the background. Argentina defaulted on bonds following a debt crisis in 2001-2002.
After much fanfare, the ECB has surprised the market. It delivered a 10 bp cut in key rates and committed itself to a ABS/covered bond purchase scheme to start next month. The euro sold off, dragging down other European currencies, and sparked...
Among the components of the 60-year economic super cycle due to bottom this fall is the 10-year cycle. It is this cycle which is the core component of the super cycle and is responsible for this year’s financial market behavior.