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THE BOTTOM LINE
A Debt Summary, 2007 Update
by Michael W.
Hodges, Author
Grandfather
Economic Report
April 2,2007
Everyone
is talking about debt these days. Perhaps more than ever before with good cause. Huge debt levels with
soaring trends can cause one to think America is becoming more
addicted to debt than ever before. Like a drug junkie needing
more each day, there are more and more debt junkies in all sectors.
America
used to be an economy based on production and savings, with a
strong manufacturing base. Later it was said America had become
what they called a 'service economy', as manufacturing and
saving ratios declined and trade deficits soared. Perhaps some
will say America now has become a 'debt society'. Who knows
where that leads.
TWO
GREAT QUESTIONS:
1. Can the production of debt forever replace the production of
goods and savings?
2. Can Americans forever borrow their way to prosperity? forever and ever?
QUESTION
> what does a summary of all debt in America look like? Answer
> see below.
Knowledge
is Power...
provided it's based on hard data.
Three
(3) chapters of the Grandfather Economic Report series cover
Government Debt and Private Sector Debt and International Debt
in America - - telling
the debt story by use of color data graphics:
1. Federal
Government Debt Report
2. America's
Total Debt Report - includes private sector debt
3. International
Trade & Debt Report
Readers
requested an additional web page summarizing debt in America in
table form. Here it is.
BOTTOM-LINE
- - DEBT SUMMARY TABLE
AMERICA'S TOTAL DEBT
- $48 Trillion -
add another $49 trillion for
contingent Social Security/Medicare
(updated March 2007)
Our Federal
Government Debt Report shows $8.7 Trillion of debt as of end
CY
2006. The State
& Local Government Report shows debt of $2.0 Trillion
and $37.7 Trillion of private (household, business and financial
sector) debt is revealed in America's
Total Debt Report.
These sum to $48.4
Trillion - - equivalent to $161,287 per capita or
$645,148 per family of 4. (This
sum does not include the federal government's un-funded
contingent liabilities for social security/Medicare estimated at
$44 trillion, plus additional amounts for unknown (?)
contingencies listed below.)
The
following table summarizes Total Debt in America - - as of
December 31, 2006
|
TOTAL
DEBT IN AMERICA
January 1, 2007 |
|
DEBT
TYPE
|
DEBT
AMOUNT
|
Debt
Per Child
(per capita)
|
|
GOVERNMENT
SECTOR DEBT:
|
|
Federal
Government Sector debt - a record high as of
year-end 2006
(Treasury data and Federal
Government Debt Report, includes $2.2
trillion federal govt. owes foreigners, plus $2.7
trillion debt owed U.S. domestic public, plus $3.8
trillion surplus siphoned from and owed to trust funds)
|
$8.7
Trillion
|
$29,097 |
|
State
& Local Government Sector debt - a record high
(State
& Local Government Spending Report)
|
$2.0
Trillion |
$6,689 |
|
Un-funded
Social Security contingent liabilities estimated looking
forward *
|
$7
Trillion |
$23,648 |
|
Un-funded
Medicare contingent liabilities, estimated *
|
$37
Trillion |
$123,745 |
|
Un-funded
federal employee pension
liabilities (incl. Postal service)
|
?$4
Trillion
|
?
|
|
Un-funded
federal employee medical contingent liabilities
|
$
|
$
|
|
Un-funded
state & local government employee pension &
medical contingent liabilities
|
?$1
Trillion
|
?
|
|
Other
off-budget Federal Govt. borrowings*
|
?
|
?
|
|
SUM
above Government Debt
|
$59.7
Trillion + ?
|
$199,666
+ ?
|
|
PRIVATE
SECTOR DEBT:
|
|
(see
America's
Total Debt Report)
|
|
|
|
Household
Sector debt - soaring record high
|
$12.8
Trillion |
$42,809 |
|
Business
Sector debt - record high
|
$9.0
Trillion |
$30,003 |
|
Financial
Sector debt (domestic) - explosive record high
|
$14.2
Trillion |
$47,492 |
|
Other
(extra foreign debt in addition to such included in
numbers above sectors)
|
$1.7
Trillion |
$5,686 |
|
Un-funded
business sector employee pension & medical
contingent liabilities
|
?$0.5
Trillion
|
?
|
|
Impact
trillions of dollars of derivatives on business &
financial sector debt
|
?
|
?
|
|
SUM
above Private Debt
|
$38.2
Trillion +?
|
$127,759
+ ?
|
|
SUM
ALL DEBT
|
|
SUM
Government + Private Sector Debt
(including Contingent liability items*)
|
$97.9
Trillion +? |
$327,425
+? |
|
SUM
All Government and Private Sector Debt
(excluding
contingent liability items*)
|
$48.4
Trillion |
$161,287
per person |
|
We
don't 'owe it to ourselves'
We
owe $10.3 Trillion (21.3% of above debt to international
entities
($2.2 Trillion owed by federal government +
$8/1 Trillion by private sector)
|
[$10.3
Trillion] |
[$34,448] |
|
?
= No estimate available or there may be other
contingencies
* = for discussion some of above government items see
the Grandfather
Social Security Report, the America's
Total Debt Report and Trust
Fund Report articles, the State
& Local Government Spending Report and the International
Trade & Debt Report. (Debt Data Sources: Federal
Govt. Treasury Dept.; Private Sector and State &
Local Govt. from Federal Reserve flow of funds accounts,
table D.3)
|
Note:
Although above data is exactly as published from the sources, the
author believes true debt is even higher. A few examples
> corporate debt is under-stated as evidenced by many companies
with off-balance sheet debt (Enron, etc.) and household debt above
certainly does not include many areas of non-recorded debt.
I think many will agree that individuals and corporations never
over-state debt instead,
many purposely under-state same.
Note:
If you believe in the reliability of data reported by the
federal government and the Federal Reserve Board, then you must
accept the above data, because those are the data sources. If you
have data and sources for the unknown (?) areas in the above
table, please email M. Hodges.
DEBT GROWTH CHART:
The
above debt summary table is as of year-end 2006. Excluding
unfunded mandates, this chart shows
total debt (private and government) is
$48.4 Trillion ($10.7 trillion governments,
$37.7
private sectors) equivalent to $161,287 per person
(including those in diapers), which is equivalent to $645,148 per
family of 4 and $45,514 more per family than last year.
This
chart from the chapter 'America's
Total Debt Report' shows the trend of that $48 trillion debt
(red line) soaring
up and up much faster than the economy (blue
line).
If
we include several unfunded liabilities, then total debt (private
plus government) is $98 Trillion equivalent to $327,425 per person,
which is equivalent to $1.3 million per family of 4.
Total
debt of $48 trillion is 460% of net national income
-a record high ratio indicating an economy more
debt-dependent than ever. Each year more debt is needed to produce
a dollar of national income than the prior year, a type of 'negative productivity.'
Zooming
debt - - declining real savings - - soaring trade deficits >
> very troubling trends !!
~
CONSIDER THESE FAMOUS QUOTES ~
"No
generation has a right to contract debts
greater than can be paid off during
the course of its own
existence."
- George Washington to James Madison 1789
"We hear sad
complaints sometimes of merciless creditors;
whilst the acts of merciless debtors are passed
over in silence." -
William Frend, 1817
"I place
economy among the first and most important virtues,
and debt as the greatest of dangers to be feared."
- Thomas Jefferson"
"There
is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a
boom brought about by credit (debt) expansion.
The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as
the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt)
expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the
currency system involved." - Ludwig von Mises
"The decline
of great powers is caused by simple economic over
extension." - by
Paul Kennedy
If
you want to see data up-dates
to this DEBT SUMMARY TABLE page,
click
and book-mark this page at
http://mwhodges.home.att.net/debt-summary-table.htm

ฉ 2007 Michael W. Hodges
Editorial Archive
Web
note:
The above editorial is a recent summary of an updated chapter from
Michael Hodges series, Grandfather
Economic Report.
Be
sure to read 3 debt chapters each
with color data trend graphics to help tell the story of debt in America
since a picture is worth a thousand
words:
1. America's
Total Debt Report (includes private sector debt)
2. Federal
Government Debt Report
3. Trust
Fund Debt Report (government siphons social security trust
fund)
4. International
Trade & Debt Report
Michael
W. Hodges
Grandfather
Economic Report
Email Mr. Hodges |