Most upstream oil firms
these days are looking to Africa for the prospects that will help them
offset slowing output and falling reserve replacement rates. But
surging investment in the continent underlines the need to address
transparency concerns that are growing amongst these firms.
Africa
holds an estimated 8-9% of global reserves, but accounted for a third
of new reserves discovered worldwide over the last five years. That
disproportionately large share of upstream growth reflects the
steadily rising investment by majors in the continent over the period.
And as access to upstream blocks in Venezuela, Russia and the Middle
East becomes even more constrained, their investment in Africa will
hit new highs in the coming years. That could see the share of new
discoveries climb higher still, especially with the avid interest
shown in upstream bidding rounds in Libya and Nigeria this year. Those
rounds show how high oil prices, and a lack of upstream access
elsewhere, have changed the balance of power upstream in Africa.
Africa
is growing in strategic importance for the US as an alternative to the
Middle East as a source of crude. The US already imports more crude
from the continent — 17% of its total imports — than it does from
Saudi Arabia. And it wants that share to rise to 25% of total imports
by 2015. It is no coincidence that US majors Chevron and ExxonMobil
are the top two operators in Angola, the region’s second-largest
crude producer, and are focusing on further growth in its largest
producer, Nigeria.
But
Africa is also attracting the attention of other strategic investors.
US majors are increasingly in head-on competition for new acreage with
the state-owned companies of Asia-Pacific’s emerging giants, China
and India. This face-off has spurred other investors to step up their
bidding for new acreage in the most promising regions, such as Libya,
Nigeria and Angola. And rising signature bonuses underline the fact
that the issue of transparency is becoming even more significant for
Africa as its oil revenues grow.
Continued
transparency concerns leave other oil companies at a potential
disadvantage when competing for African contracts with China’s
state-owned firms. Backed by state financing and not beholden to the
ethical concerns of the majors’ shareholders, Chinese state-owned
firms have stolen a march on private-sector investors in controversial
countries such as Sudan. They have also agreed to terms elsewhere that
proved unacceptable to the majors. Chinese state-owned oil firms have
shown a nominal willingness to take over operations of Nigeria’s
loss-making state-owned oil refineries in exchange for securing new
upstream stakes.
Pressure
from the World Bank, the IMF and the UK-led Extractive Industries
Transparency Initiative (EITI) is slowly changing the way business is
done. But there is still a long way to go. The governments of Angola
and Equatorial Guinea remain resistant to transparency initiatives.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission continues to investigate
possible corruption by oil firms in Equatorial Guinea and services
companies involved in the Nigeria LNG project. Meanwhile, Sao Tome and
Principe has called on Nigeria to clarify the award of a number of
blocks in the two countries’ joint development zone to Nigerian
firms with strong links to some of Abuja’s leading politicians.
Calls
for improved oil revenue transparency and sustainable environmental,
business and social practices moved to centre stage at the recent
World Petroleum Congress in Johannesburg. Industry leaders warned that
the fight against corruption is key both to the public image of the
oil industry, and its long-term future in Africa.