Some of the largest construction projects on the planet are currently
underway in Fort McMurray, Alberta. Canada’s oil sands, long
recognized as a “fuel of the future”, are no longer a theoretical
energy source but a critical component of global energy supply. These
giant accumulations of tar and sand cover an area greater than the
state of Florida. The estimated reserves of these accumulations
exceeds 174 billion barrels of oil, second only to the oil riches of
Saudi Arabia. Construction of these projects requires huge amounts of
capital. Over 100 billion dollars will be invested on oil sands
projects over the next 10 years.
Oil sands production
is far more complex than producing oil from conventional wells where
the oil flows nicely into pipelines and tankers before shipping to the
refinery. It takes approximately two tons of oil sand to produce a
barrel of oil. Digging up the sand requires giant truck and shovel
operations.
One critical
component of a successful multi-billion dollar oil sands project is a
runway. Although construction materials must be delivered by road and
rail, the people required to assemble them do not.
Given the tightness
of the Alberta labor market, companies are looking at creative
solutions to find skilled labor. Canadian Natural Resources’ Horizon
project will require 6000 trades people at the peak of its
construction. Workers for these vast operations will be flown in from
Atlantic Canada and the interior of British Columbia. The addition of
a runway opens up the entire Canadian labor market to be consumed by
Fort McMurray oil sands projects. Workers from Atlantic Canada
will be taking a 6-hour commuter jet trip to complete their work
shifts. This compares favorably to the 5-hour bus trip from Edmonton.
Satisfying the oil
sands labor market requires global solutions. Engineers from South
America, laborers from Mexico and welders from China are all finding
themselves sucked into the giant swirling labor pool required to get
oil sands projects off the ground.
Meanwhile, Canada’s
conventional oil and gas industry is in overdrive. The Petroleum
Services Association of Canada (PSAC) estimates that 2006 will see
over 25,000 wells drilled in Canada representing a 6% increase from
last year. Drilling crews are in high demand as contractors don’t
want their equipment sitting idle and oil companies are willing to pay
up to get their wells drilled.
In Calgary, the heart
of Canada’s energy patch, the demand for labor shows up in the near
ubiquitous postings for staff in retail and fast food service
positions. One national chain had to temporarily shut down one of
it’s restaurants due to a lack of workers. Reliable young workers
can make a 6-figure income in Fort McMurray. In Calgary, the oil patch
is willing to pay higher wages than other industries for technical
support positions.
The exploration,
discovery and exploitation of ore deposits and oil and gas fields
require a strong contingent of engineers, geologists, and
geophysicists. During the last trough in the commodity cycle there was
little demand for these professions. Much of the available work was
related to environmental projects, cleaning up the toxic spills from
old mines and refineries. Although some commentators interpret this
“new breed” of professionals as having a strong environmental
consciousness, the real truth is they followed the money and found the
trail ending up at remediation instead of exploration and
exploitation.
Demographic data show
that the majority of the resource related workforce is in the 40-60
year age group. There are very few resource professionals in the 20-40
year age group (and that age group is skewed towards environmental
expertise) and it is expected that 40% of professionals will be
retiring over the next 10 years. Enrollments in resource related
university programs have been at low levels for decades. Keeping in
mind that engineers, geologists and geophysicists require at least 4
years of university education and several years of experience before
they become competent professionals one can see the demographic
squeeze play coming. At a time when resource related technical
expertise is needed most, it will be in the shortest supply.
This developing
demographic squeeze is going to influence resource investments and one
should expect cost overruns and delays for mining, pipeline, refinery,
upgrader and oil sands projects. There is a shortage of the skilled
labor required to build these projects and to field experienced drill
crews. The expertise required to find and develop new mineral deposits
and oil and gas fields is also lacking. The commodity bull market has
a bright future because it is going to be exceedingly difficult to
increase commodity supplies with current manpower levels.