The recent turbulence in the stock market is behind us and a rally is now underway. Given the fact that we have recently entered the most favourable 6-month period of the U.S. Presidential Cycle, it is our contention that Wall Street will advance quite sharply until spring.
Including this morning’s reports from Wal-Mart and Viacom, we now have Q3 results from 461 S&P 500 members or 91.8% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these 461 companies are up +6.9% from the same period last year, with 70.5% beating earnings estimates.
China has announced it will finally open its equity markets to foreign investors. A trading link will be established between Shanghai and Hong Kong this coming Monday. This will open up access to nearly $2 trillion worth of Chinese equities.
Large pools of capital, including central banks and sovereign wealth funds continue to buy French bonds, keeping yields near German levels. The logic is not so much about fair value based on economic fundamentals. Instead, it is a political judgment.
The persistent decline in the price of oil and commodities from mid-year until now has caught investors by surprise. Many market observers thought there was a $100 floor under Brent crude based on technical and fundamental supply-demand factors. Once that price level was broken...
Gold’s time will come again, and so will silver’s. But I don’t think we’re there yet. If a bear market has three phases, I’d say we’re in the final phase – but the bear still has some biting to do. Time will tell if I’m right or not.
In May we started a recurring monthly review of all the main economic data. At the time, the consensus view was that growth in wages and employment were accelerating and that this would soon lead to a meaningful increase in inflation above the Fed's 2% target. So far, this has been wrong.
Monday the Bank of Japan announced that it will be buying Japanese equity ETFs as well as property funds (REITs) to boost demand for risk assets. The BoJ has done this before but the timing of this announcement suggests a new push to accelerate monetary easing.
Given European growth is expected to decline well into 2015 we are likely to see another round of the Euro crisis occur which could derail strong bullish seasonal strength the U.S. market typically sees in the last two months of the year.
Just as European nations are trying to wean themselves from an erratic supply of Russian natural gas, so Russia appears determined to reduce its reliance on European customers by signing a second enormous deal to supply gas to China.