BCA Research's picture

Policy uncertainty will remain elevated, putting upward pressure on risk premiums. The upside of uncertainty is that monetary and perhaps even fiscal policy will be looser than otherwise would be the case. That is a plus for stocks, but...

Matthew Kerkhoff's picture

Not too warm, not too cold, can describe many aspects of the U.S. economy. Take last week’s jobs report as an example. According to estimates, 287,000 jobs were created, but this did little more than balance out the previous...

Andrew Zatlin's picture

Vice spending is telling us that good times are still here, but it’s also signaling that we’re peaking. There is very little growth left and it’s likely that things will get a bit wobbly at year-end. This means a lot of Central Bank intervention...

FS Staff's picture

One look at the chart below and it's pretty easy to conclude that either earnings don't matter anymore or stocks are in a bubble. The black line is the S&P 500, which just closed at a new all-time record, and the red line is total earnings for S&P 500 companies. Clearly, there's a dis...

Stratfor's picture

The Brexit referendum and the fallout from it will be among the most heavily scrutinized themes of the next quarter. And though it may have been the most visible confirmation of the European Union's disintegration, it was May 1, 2004...

Doug Short's picture

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and...

Richard Larsen's picture

The Brexit vote could be the beginning of the unravelling of the EU. Other countries considering their own "Brexit" are Czechoslovakia ("Czechout"), Finland, ("Finnish"), Italy ("Italeave"), and Netherlands ("Nexit"). As the anti-globalization sentiment grows, there could be a domino effect...

Ben Hunt PhD's picture

In 2008, the $10 trillion asset class of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) was entirely based on the Common Knowledge that it was impossible to have a nationwide decline in U.S. home prices. When that Narrative failed, the entire inverted pyramid came crashing...

Kurt Kallaus's picture

While crude oil price movements have been a sensitive leading indicator to economic conditions and financial markets since late 2014, the British Pound collapse has now become a leading indicator for many commodities since the June 23rd UK referendum...

Bill Witherell's picture

Post-Brexit-vote pain is beginning, and it will get worse. Investors’ attitudes about Britain’s prospects are signaled by the tumbling currency. This week the pound plunged to three-decade lows. Confidence in Britain’s economy...

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