Jeffrey D Saut's picture

Two of the longest secular bull markets chronicled in our notes began following Republican “revolutions.” The 1953 to 1973 bull market sprung from Eisenhower’s election (1952) and the subsequent infrastructure spending. The 1982 to 2000 secular bull...

Robert Rapier's picture

Earlier this month the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) announced the largest estimate of continuous oil that it has ever assessed. The area assessed is in the Permian Basin, a region that has been producing oil continuously for nearly 100 years. Below I will get into the specifics...

Urban Carmel's picture

Increasing global trade is not the primary culprit in the decline in US manufacturing employment. Again, output is at an ATH. Manufacturing jobs have fallen with new technology and other means for increasing productivity. The number of employees needed to make the same...

Global Risk Insights's picture

Since the first official summit held in 2009, the BRICS have articulated a shared a common vision for a more democratic and multipolar world order. The group has challenged international institutions to become more representative and reflect the growing voices of developing...

Kurt Kallaus's picture

The dreaded recount has begun in this “mini-me” version of the 2000 Bush vs. Gore election. In 2000 there were merely hundreds of votes in one state deciding the election. Complicated by unclear ballots and court battles, it took 5 weeks to resolve leaving a divided electorate...

FS Staff's picture

When we spoke to leading macro analyst Jim Bianco of Bianco Research months before the election, he thought the odds of a Trump win were much higher than most expected and that, like Brexit, it would probably end up being bullish, not bearish, for the US stock market...

Charles Bolin's picture

The expectations of US GDP growth have slowed to 1.7-2.0% for the next 5 to 10 years. High market valuations and slow growth are toxic in the medium term. Demographics and high debt levels are likely to slow growth over the next decade or two. 2017 tax, trade, and...

BCA Research's picture

U.S. dollar-based global financial liquidity is contracting as the greenback strengthens. If excess liquidity and low rates were previously supporting high valuations, tighter liquidity and rising rates can’t justify current multiples, especially if global growth is soft...

Stratfor's picture

Sluggish construction growth and skyrocketing debt, coupled with sharp reductions in debt maturity periods, could cause corporate defaults and bankruptcies to spike next year, testing Beijing's legal and institutional abilities to cope with them. Meanwhile, increasing U.S...

Andrew Zatlin's picture

The consensus was overwhelmingly wrong because of accidental survey bias. It’s the difference between theory and reality, and it gets tripped up in the basics of methodology. Current approaches follow a wisdom-of-the-crowds approach where multiple predictions...

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