The latest US payrolls report presents a challenge for the Fed. Labor markets are continuing to heal, suggesting that the rate "normalization" should be a serious consideration for the central bank. However, the recent deterioration...
The new week has begun with two macro-economic disappointments out of Asia. Signs of further softening in China, the world's second largest economy, are fanning speculation that additional easing measures will be delivered in the coming weeks.
The way events are lining up, 2015 will be the Year of Volatility. Markets will be waiting for major decisions from the world’s central banks and uncertainties in macro and commodity markets to broach. Here are 6 reasons volatility is poised to make a comeback.
Bull markets normally last an average of 4.5 years. By that time, stocks are usually over-valued, the market is over-extended, the Fed is making plans to cool off the enthusiasm, and the bull market/ bear market cycle begins to sequence into the next bear market.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.
A total of +321K jobs were created in the U.S. economy, way above consensus estimates of around +230K and the 12-month average of about 224K. Revisions to the prior two months were revised higher, with October now at +243K from +214K and September now at +271K from...
The fall in oil prices is gathering much attention. Since mid June, light crude oil (WTIC) has fallen by about 40%. Current prices are the lowest since September 2009, more than 4 years ago.
Is a solar supply glut on hand? Not exactly, but oil’s multi-month slide has largely overshadowed the sector’s emergent capacity. Nowhere is that more apparent than in the state of California, where the world’s largest photovoltaic power station is now online.
It's a challenging global environment but investing is a game of relativity, and relative to the rest of the world, the U.S. sits alone atop the mountain. Most economies in the Eurozone and around the world are flat lining, while Japan and Italy are technically in recession.
During the Great Financial Crisis, Hyman Minsky was rediscovered. Minsky's insight was that long periods of steadily rising asset prices encourages financial engineering and leveraged bets that assume a continued rise in asset prices.