When it comes to the stock market, there are some justifications for the level we are at. My first response to those who don't believe we've had any type of recovery, or that the stock market shouldn't be this high, is to bring up corporate profits.
Near-term caution on the market was echoed again by our most recent technician on the show, Louise Yamada, as the major indexes attempt to stabilize. She sees “continued deterioration” in a number of key indicators beyond what we’ve seen so far this year and believes this may be the start of a cyclical correction of around 10%.
With few exceptions, commodity prices have fallen sharply in recent months, to their lowest levels in over a year. Relative to stock market indices, broad commodity indices are now at their lowest levels since the late-1990s dotcom boom.
The third quarter had its share of intrigue for the capital markets. Thank you Russia. Thank you Scotland. Thank you oil. Thank you central bankers. Thank you Alibaba Group (BABA). And thank you (but not literally) ISIS.
The ongoing strengthening of the U.S. dollar could shift the FOMC further into dovish territory. While the labor situation continues to improve, the dollar's recent appreciation has contributed to declines in inflation expectations (based on TIPS breakevens) to multi-year lows.
Financial regulation in the U.S. today would have been unrecognizable six years ago, when Lehman Brothers had just been liquidated and AIG was bailed out. The Dodd-Frank Act, along with the Basel Accords, has fundamentally changed how financial institutions treat risk...
This may be excessively optimistic on my part, but there seems to be a slow change in the way the world thinks about reserve currencies. For a long time it was widely accepted that reserve currency status granted the provider of the currency substantial economic benefits.
We had an interesting line-up of guests and topics this week for our premium channel: Ross Hansen discussed gold and our slow move towards a cashless society, Urban Carmel talked about the tech bubble and not to expect such euphoria again, Marc Chandler talked about a multi-year bull market in the dollar, and, lastly, Dan Steffens addressed the energy markets.
Gold experienced a spectacular bull market run from its low at $250 an ounce in 2001 to its peak above $1,900 an ounce in 2011. Its long bull market was largely supported by expectations that the Fed’s easy money policies would create spiraling inflation...
In May we started a recurring monthly review of all the main economic data. At the time, the consensus view was that growth in wages and employment were accelerating and that this would lead to a meaningful increase in inflation above the Fed's 2% target. So far, this has been wrong.