Two years ago it was hard to find analysts who expected average GDP growth over the rest of this decade to be less than 8%. The current consensus seems to have dropped to between 6% and 7% on average.
Bond yields are falling, as are commodity prices. Both NDX and RUT are starting December down more than 1%. Is a December swoon set to trigger? Based purely on seasonal tendencies, the odds of a steep fall in equities through the end of the year are low.
Stocks ended in the red on the first day of December, but appear on track to reverse course in today’s session following a positive market action in Europe ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday.
Western sanctions and falling oil prices have cost Russia over $160 billion and have been “catastrophic” for the Russian economy. Despite this, the Russian leadership is unlikely to alter its provocative foreign policy.
I am going to visit Moscow next week. I was invited by the Moscow State Institute of International Relations to speak on strategic analysis, their term for what Stratfor calls strategic forecasting. Going to Moscow would give me pause under any circumstances.
Every now and then the financial media is abuzz when a Hindenburg Omen is signaled and investors turn cautious. A short description of the frightening market-event is provided below from Wikipedia. Named after the famous Zeppelin airship that exploded in a disastrous fire...
Everyone needs to buckle up because there is a lot to cover as I try to do justice to the wild events that took place in markets from Thursday through today, and what I think some of the ramifications may be.
This Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg, shows that China's market capitalization (white line) is greater than Japan's (yellow line). This is the consequence of two forces.
OPEC’s decision not to cut production to shore up oil prices drove down the price of oil even further in a strong challenge to American shale oil producers — or, in less delicate language, the start of an all-or-nothing price war.
Although OPEC's decision to maintain current crude production quotas was not entirely unexpected, the market reaction was violent. WTI crude fell by 10% over the last two days of the week.