Urban Carmel's picture

The balance of the macro data from the past month continues to be positive. To be sure, growth remains slow, but the balance of evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely. The main positives are in employment, consumption growth and housing: Employment growth is close to the best since the 1990s...

Global Risk Insights's picture

North Korea’s latest nuclear test not only riles the West, but has severly damaged ties with Beijing: China’s response will be telling for future ties. North Korea’s latest announcement concerning the alleged detonation of a hydrogen bomb as thrown another wrench into the Six Party Talk...

FS Staff's picture

In Thursday's podcast interview we spoke with the savvy head of Moneyball Economics, Andrew Zatlin, where he outlined three cycles converging in 2016 that he believes will be bearish for the market.Given his outlook, he felt investors should be raising cash and selling...

Sheraz Mian's picture

Another day, another China-centric market sell-off, with the US indexes deeply in the red following losses all over the world. To say that markets have been volatile in the New Year would be an understatement. One recurring theme of market activity...

Oil Price's picture

Low oil prices put pressure on the budgets of major oil producing countries in 2015, but the next domino to fall could be their currencies. Petro-economies with flexible exchange rates have already seen double-digit declines in the value of their currencies over the past year, in percentage terms.

BCA Research's picture

We were struck by a YouTube video recently in which the late former British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Denis Healey, was asked what he thought about the punitive tax regime he imposed on the country in the 1970s. At the time the marginal tax rate on individuals hit 83% and the tax...

Bill Witherell's picture

When the markets opened on the first market day of 2016, we were glad that we had not re-entered China's equity markets since we sold our China positions last August. We were also glad that we did not hold any emerging-market positions in our International and Global ETF Portfolios. We did consider participating in the fourth-quarter recovery in China's markets engineered by the...

FS Staff's picture

In Wednesday’s podcast we interviewed retail industry expert Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz and Associates about the state of retail and the general economy. As shown in the chart below (courtesy of the Federal Reserve), retail sales are hardly growing...

Global Risk Insights's picture

Zimbabwe’s adoption of the yuan as legal tender demonstrates its close ties with China, and Beijing’s efforts to globalize its currency. Long a pariah state under the rule of aging despot Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe has witnessed an economic uptick in recent years. This reversal of fortunes has been...

Sheraz Mian's picture

The Alcoa (AA) report after the close on January 11th will put the spotlight on the Q4 earnings season. We have a total of 11 S&P 500 members reporting results next week, including J.P. Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C) and Intel (INTC). But the reporting cycle will really ramp...

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