Since the United States has carried a AAA debt rating since 1917, the term unprecedented has been properly applied to the possibility of a downgrade to AA. The uncertainty associated with a debt downgrade/short-term default was captured by the Wall Street Journal on July 25
While oil supply has been roughly level since 2005, neither increasing or decreasing, there is disagreement regarding what the future will hold. In this paper, we consider the scenario in which (1) world oil supply fails to increase, and (2) emerging economies continue to grow rapidly, creating a shortage of oil that acts as a bottleneck for economic growth for OECD countries.
The current debt-ceiling debate is cloaked in emotionally charged rhetoric and proposals characterized by undefined terms like “fair” and “balanced.” Who could be against programs that are “fair” and “balanced”? In his television appeal to the public on Monday, President Obama stated that people needed to pay their “fair share” and that we needed a “balanced” approach to solving the deficit problem.
For many years financial planners embraced the image of a three-legged stool to illustrate sources of retirement income: Social Security, Pensions and Personal Savings.
Last Friday we were led to believe that the debt-ceiling crisis would be over by the start of Asia’s business on Monday. The weekend has gone and so the deal. The markets are very nervous and beginning to worry that a deal will not be made.
And so passes another day of waiting for some resolution on the debt ceiling. It occurs to me that failure to raise it by August 2 shouldn't result in an immediate complete default, because every day after August 2 we will only be short of one day's worth of borrowing.
That US home prices are once again trending down is no secret. But just how bad things are likely to get is not yet well understood. What’s happening to the homes of all those defaulted borrowers that we hear about? Many of those properties are a part of so-called shadow inventory.
Monday night’s nationally-televised addresses by party leaders did little to clear the air in the debt-ceiling debate. Once some form of resolution is born (good, bad, or indifferent), the early reaction, especially in terms of market leadership, will be important. If commodities can regain some traction, it would be a bullish signal for the economy and markets.
Even though the world economy is drowning in government debt, borrowing rates remained chained to record low rate setting by the G7 central banks.
The stock market remains in a secular bear market. Actually, it is still in the early stages of a secular bear based upon relatively high P/E valuations currently and a relatively low core inflation rate (the driver of P/E over time).