Urban Carmel's picture

Our key message over the past year has been that (a) growth is positive but modest, in the range of ~3-4% (nominal), and; (b) current growth is lower than in prior periods of economic expansion and a return to 1980s or 1990s style growth does not appear likely.

Cris Sheridan's picture

So far, two of the three technical warning signs for a possible peak in the market have been raised. The most recent came in June as the market’s internal momentum failed to confirm the S&P 500’s new record highs. If past is prologue, the market will likely attempt...

Michael Pettis's picture

With so much happening in China in the past month it seems that there are a number of very specific topics that any essay on China should focus. I worry, however, that we get so caught up staring at strange clumps...

Kurt Kallaus's picture

Price patterns created by repetitive general psychological investor reactions to panics can be interesting and useful. Often these panics occur when there is no economic basis in reality. The Black Monday 1987 panic, the 1998 Asian Contagion panic and the Flash Crash...

Chris Puplava's picture

Given the recent sharp decline in the market, the overwhelming question from clients is whether this is the beginning of a new bear market similar to 2000-2002 or 2007-2009. Though I don’t think we are quite there yet, here is the big picture outlook as I see it with possible risks...

Bob Eisenbeis's picture

Despite the huge surge in market volatility the past three days and the tumultuous drop in US equities, these moves tell us nothing about the state of the US real economy. China is having its problems, largely...

Oil Price's picture

Emerging market currencies are getting slammed by the collapse in commodity prices, a downturn that has accelerated in recent weeks. The health of many middle-income and emerging market economies has...

FS Staff's picture

Many investors are wondering whether the recent move by the Chinese central bank is the start of a new currency war, signal of a coming banking crisis and market collapse, as some predict, or otherwise. Felix Zulauf and Marc Chandler weigh in on the subject...

Urban Carmel's picture

How have different asset classes in the past responded when the FOMC has raised rates for the first time? Commodities were the best performing asset; they boomed. The dollar sold off. Equities usually rallied into the decision, then sold off, and then rallied again. Treasury yields rose. The total return for high yield bonds was usually positive.

Global Risk Insights's picture

China’s decision to let the yuan depreciate last week came for a number of reasons, including being a needed boost for Chinese export industries. But there are two sides to every currency swing, as the following countries are...

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