Jim Puplava responds to feedback received over the last few months. Has the 2014-2016 crisis window been delayed? What happened to peak oil and metals? Are you still positive on the markets and the economy?
Perhaps I should put quotation marks around the word "smart" in the title. Early in the month the smart money was saying we were going to roll over. They based this on the action of the bond market.
There are two catalysts I see that could spark a deeper correction after the present relief rally runs its course. The first being the most obvious is a further escalation on the Ukraine/Russian front and the second is a slowdown in US economic growth stemming from prior inflationary pressures.
As any good market technician will tell you, rotations are the lifeblood of any bull market. The time to worry is when money stops moving from sector to sector and decides, instead, to shift en masse to a separate asset class like bonds or cash.
While the decline in long-term interest rates has many confused given the recent improvement in U.S. economic data, it appears the main driver is a flight to quality alongside a weakening global economy and heightened geopolitical concerns.
Dan Wantrobski at Janney Capital Markets says the long-term correlation between stocks, interest rates, and commodities shows we are now in a secular bull market for stocks. Is this possible given current valuation levels?
One of the reasons why we have secular cycles is due to the time-tested principle that people don’t change. The two greatest emotions that every investor has battled with are fear and greed. We see euphoria and rampant greed at secular bull market tops and outright despair and fear at...
Based on capitulation-like selling in both the small cap equity and junk bond segments of the market, it is quite likely that last Friday marked a low. While the recent pullback was not fun it also wasn’t the beginning of a bear market as many bearish pundits claimed.
Given the persisent deterioration in market breadth starting around the beginning of July, I began cautioning over the last couple weeks that risks for a correction were starting to build. Now that the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have finally cracked, the question is how much more damage is to come?
One of the great questions being debated right now is how will the market react once QE3 ends this October. Those who believe asset prices (namely stocks, bonds, and real estate) are being supported by the Fed, and not by underlying economic growth, expect a correction or worse once the Fed withdraws its support.