Shadow banking is back in the news. First there are ongoing problems in China where bad loans outside of the traditional banking system are causing increasing financial strain. Then, here in the U.S., regulators are also becoming more concerned about the rising use of leveraged loans by non-bank intermediaries or things like peer-to-peer lending, where the largest such company in this space, Lending Club, just filed for an IPO.
Back in 2011, I wrote about Why Even Fundamental Analysts Should Watch A-D Line, noting that the NYSE A-D Line is very strongly correlated to corporate profits. But because the A-D Line can be calculated each day in real time...
The first decade of this century was certainly interesting. We kicked it off with a massive bubble and, as usual, were told “this time is different.” The Internet was changing things and so stocks were valued by page reads or eye balls or some other “new metric.”
Jim Puplava responds to feedback received over the last few months. Has the 2014-2016 crisis window been delayed? What happened to peak oil and metals? Are you still positive on the markets and the economy?
Perhaps I should put quotation marks around the word "smart" in the title. Early in the month the smart money was saying we were going to roll over. They based this on the action of the bond market.
There are two catalysts I see that could spark a deeper correction after the present relief rally runs its course. The first being the most obvious is a further escalation on the Ukraine/Russian front and the second is a slowdown in US economic growth stemming from prior inflationary pressures.
As any good market technician will tell you, rotations are the lifeblood of any bull market. The time to worry is when money stops moving from sector to sector and decides, instead, to shift en masse to a separate asset class like bonds or cash.
While the decline in long-term interest rates has many confused given the recent improvement in U.S. economic data, it appears the main driver is a flight to quality alongside a weakening global economy and heightened geopolitical concerns.
Dan Wantrobski at Janney Capital Markets says the long-term correlation between stocks, interest rates, and commodities shows we are now in a secular bull market for stocks. Is this possible given current valuation levels?
One of the reasons why we have secular cycles is due to the time-tested principle that people don’t change. The two greatest emotions that every investor has battled with are fear and greed. We see euphoria and rampant greed at secular bull market tops and outright despair and fear at...