Given the widespread deterioration I am seeing we may be setting up for a larger correction, with the mid-term election cycle predicting an intermediate peak in the market between now and the end of April.
The stock market is down after reaching all-time highs again in March. That means it’s time to talk about black swans, dragon-kings, and other such ilk; never mind the winter is beginning to thaw and economic indicators are improving for the U.S.
We’ve been dealing with an abnormally cold winter for most of 2014 with the weather being blamed for the recent poor economic data we’ve had over the last two months. However, there are plenty of naysayers who dismiss the effects of old man winter and claim the economy is beginning to cool on its own account. So, who's right?
Lies, damn lies, and statistics! I am sure you have heard that saying before. There has been a burgeoning cottage industry for market pundits that trash any economic number that comes out, especially the ones that go against their projections.
According to Shilling, the U.S. has gone through a number of leveraging and deleveraging cycles, with the latter taking about ten years to complete. Right now, he says, we have about four more years of slow growth before economic activity gets back to normal.
After posting another new high last week, stocks were taking a breather during Monday’s session. The primary catalyst came out of China.
There is a fairly regular pattern to how the market behaves during what is called the "four-year election cycle." Currently, the pattern suggests a market peak in April, followed by a bottom in late August, before a strong year-end rally.
It seems we can’t go a week without someone predicting the end of the world and stirring up everyone’s fears of a market meltdown. These apocalyptic warnings are becoming routine and the sad thing is that it does cause the squeamish individual investor to run for...