FS Staff's picture

In Wednesday's podcast, Chris Puplava provides a comprehensive update on PFS Group's economic outlook for the US by explaining the message coming from each of the 15 charts below. Many of these forward-looking indicators are regularly discussed in our weekly broadcasts...

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Financial conditions were favorable for the stock market, confirming their upward trend, until around 2014. Since then, financial conditions have become increasingly less favorable, diverging from the stock market's higher highs, and finally went negative in 2016...

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The 8th Year Presidential Cycle, as it is known, shows a decline in the stock market in the first couple months, a rally into April, and then further declines heading into the rest of the year. So far both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have followed the pattern...

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Traditionally, economics has defined money purely as a store of value, a neutral medium of exchange. Now, though, some are finding reasons to throw that definition out and start from a different background founded in systems science...

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"Our expectation is that going forward, beyond 2016, you will see economic, financial, and political concerns rising once again and investors will go from purchasing 17-20 million ounces of gold per year back toward 30 or even 40 million ounces and that rise in investment demand..."

Urban Carmel's picture

SPY made a new all-time high on Tuesday despite falling margin debt, the end of QE, negative household fund flows, flat profit growth and a host of other reasons. In other words, exactly as a rationale and objective investor...

Chris Puplava's picture

The most recent consumer sentiment reading came in below expectations and shows a continued decline from its 2015 high. In this piece, we show the long-term behavior of consumer sentiment as a gauge for US recessions, its relationship to P/E multiples, and its correlation to...

Chris Puplava's picture

Corporate profitability has been a reliable early warning indicator of a coming recession and bull market top. According to the April 4th quarterly review by Strategas Research Partners, the S&P 500 peaks on average 7 quarters after corporate profit margins peak. Given the most recent peak...

Doug Short's picture

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.

FS Staff's picture

Das maintains that a world without growth is not necessarily a problem—the problem is with the expectations of people who expect to get richer from the current economic model, or who otherwise depend upon permanent high levels of growth in some way...

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