Patrick O'Hare's picture

November 8, 2016, may not be a day that lives in infamy, yet the path to that day—Election Day—sure has been an infamous one. The presidential campaign has been reality TV at its finest—and that's not a compliment.

FS Staff's picture

Right now, corporate profits are in a clear downtrend while employee wages are increasing. This is good for employees until companies are forced to lay off workers. Once that happens, a recession is near and investors want to reduce risk in their portfolios...

Kurt Kallaus's picture

Within 15 years the western world entitlement tsunami enlarged by aging demographics should swamp the global economy during a deeper than normal cyclical contraction, but the tea leaves guiding current economic cycles can be...

FS Staff's picture

Looking at a daily (short-term) chart on the S&P 500, we see the MACD is on a "sell signal" (red line above black line) and has not tipped decisively into an area consistent with major bottoms seen over the past 2-3 years. In terms of Bollinger bands, we are in oversold territory but...

FS Staff's picture

The Philly Fed Leading Economic Index for all 50 US states has weakened considerably from its 2014 highs and is getting closer and closer to reaching our first warning threshold of a possible peak in the US economy. “We’re getting more and more of these indicators...

FS Staff's picture

While some economic data has improved this year, David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff questions the likelihood of a sustained cyclical upturn and cites specific political risks in the weeks and months ahead, which could rattle the markets...

Doug Short's picture

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt...

BCA Research's picture

Our US bond strategists anticipate a long-run bull market in the US dollar. This will act as a major headwind for USD-denominated sovereign debt. The recent performance of sovereign debt relative to US credit has bucked its traditional...

Chris Puplava's picture

Philly Fed state coincident data came out today and more states across the country are starting to contract. Looking at the snapshot below, positively growing states still dominate the map (and don't give much of an alarming picture), but a different story emerges...

Marc Chandler's picture

There were two dogs that did not bark this year. The Japanese yen, which despite negative interest rates and an unprecedented expansion of the central bank's balance sheet, strengthened 15% against the dollar.

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