China’s major security issue is Taiwan’s possible declaration of independence and China’s efforts to prevent such a move. China, in its 2004 white paper on defense, takes a hardline position when it comes to a move toward independence:

“We will never allow anyone to split Taiwan from China through whatever means. Should the Taiwan authorities go so far as to make a reckless attempt that constitutes a major incident of ‘Taiwan independence,’ the Chinese people and armed forces will resolutely and thoroughly crush it at any cost.

The United States has on many occasions reaffirmed adherence to the one-China policy, observance of the three joint communiques and opposition to ‘Taiwan independence.’ However, it continues to increase, quantitatively and qualitatively, its arms sales to Taiwan, sending a wrong signal to the Taiwan authorities. The US action does not serve a stable situation across the Taiwan Straits.”

Unsurprisingly, a long history of events and tensions has contributed to the current situation. Knowing that, an understanding of history is necessary if you’re to profit from the region’s realignment. Our goal, therefore, is not to pass judgment on territorial claims, but to properly understand and position for the coming changes.

Taiwan became a “problem” during China’s ‘40s Civil War. The existing nationalist government fled to the island after losing power to Mao Tsetung’s communist forces. Popular support for Mao was in large part because the Nationalists were responsible for disastrous economic policies that lead to hyperinflation in the late ‘40s, when in three years Shanghai wholesale prices rose 7.5 million times.

In January 1950, President Truman announced the US would not become involved in the Taiwan Strait dispute. On June 25, 1950, though, the Korean War broke out, leading President Truman to impose a “neutralization of the Straits of Formosa” two days later. The Seventh Fleet moved into the Straits to prevent an attack on Taiwan and to stop Kuomintang (KMT), the remains of the Nationalist government, forces from attacking China’s mainland. In 1954, the US and Taiwan signed a mutual defense treaty that isolated the US and communist China from each other, until President Nixon re-established relations with China in 1972.

Beginning Jan. 1, 1979, President Carter ended diplomatic relations with the Republic of China on Taiwan and recognized the government in Beijing as the sole legal government of China. In March 1979, the US embassy in Taipei was renamed the American Institute in Taiwan.

Given the history of the issue and the strong language the Mainland has used, there’s been speculation China will eventually invade Taiwan, triggering a US response and an all out war. There’s a lot of truth to this line of thinking, and China has built its military with the aim of being prepared for a confrontation in the Straits with Taiwan and US forces.

As a consequence, there’s been a plethora of scenarios regarding the timing and manner of the invasion. The most interesting was suggested by Minnick in the 2004 Asia Times article mentioned earlier. In it, he speculated that if China invaded Taiwan, it wouldn’t take place through an amphibious assault, but by a decapitation strategy:

“Decapitation strategies short circuit command and control systems, wipe out nationwide nerve centers and leave the opponent hopelessly lost…China’s deployment of its special forces and rapid-deployment forces, combined with air power and missile strikes, is the most likely formula for successfully taking Taiwan with the least amount of effort and damage.”

The article makes for a breathtaking reading and was received positively when first published.

Invasion or no invasion, Taiwan remains important to both China and the US. For the former, Taiwan represents a final “unification of the motherland,” a newfound control of trade routes to and from Japan and Korea and the ability to dominate the South China Sea—although China doesn’t yet have the naval capability to exercise that control. For the US, China’s capture of Taiwan makes it harder to collect intelligence on and from the Mainland, as it has agreements with Taiwan to share intelligence.

Despite the hype and endless scenarios regarding Taiwan’s potential declaration, there’s been progress toward a peaceful solution. That’s in part because the number of Taiwan citizens who are against independence, even if a Hong Kong-style one-country two-systems arrangement isn’t supported either.

Polls suggest that the opposition and pro-China party Kuomintang (KMT) has increased popular support, which translated into elector success in last year’s local government elections where the ruling party DPP suffered its worse election setback since it took office in 2000. The DPP won six of 23 posts, while the KMT won 14. Furthermore, the economic ties between Taiwan and the Mainland have become extremely large, with huge amounts of Taiwan investments going to the Mainland with a large number of Taiwanese workers and businessmen.

However, direct links between the two are still inflexible, costing Taiwan’s economy billions of dollars. The sovereignty issue, though, must be resolved for further economic gains to be realized.

The Chinese term for security, anquan, means complete stability. This is China’s main goal for the foreseeable future. The country will wait and try to influence the Taiwanese people to think positively about the issue. There’s an increasing probability that an arrangement where both sides agree on the one-China concept can eventually occur. The Mainland can surely wait.

© 2006 Yiannis G. Mostrous
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