The September NASDAQ 100 also made an outside reversal up on the weekly chart when it took the low of the last several weeks and then reversed to take out the previous week's high. The NASDAQ 100 also closed above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in a month. This is all bullish price action. If the market can take out last week's high of 1545.00 expect it to take on the June 23rd reaction high of 1561.00 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 1563.30. A break out above this high should clear the way for the market to challenge last month's high of 1583.00 or even the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 1590.00. Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 1643.00. If the NASDAQ 100 registers new highs for the year it may be on it's way to the weekly January 2002 high of 1717.00 or the weekly December 2001 high of 1738.00. Near term support is at the July 7th day session low of 1491.00. Like the S&P 500, this market triggered a big Gap & Fill buy signal due to the bombing in London. A break below this low could allow the market to plummet to the July 7th all-session low of 1465.00. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the contract low of 1414.00. If the September NASDAQ 100 hits a new contract low expect it to test support at this year's current weekly low of 1397.00. Open Interest is sitting flat at a low level. The NASDAQ 100 should rally in the first half of July and then drop sharply in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are still holding the biggest net long position since mid-December. Large traders (hedge funds) covered a large part of their short position and are now the least bearish since early January. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since December.

Interest rates - September T-bonds find near term resistance clustered between the contract high of 119-23 on the daily chart, the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 119-24, and the June high on the monthly chart at 119-30. A strong break out above this technical resistance barrier should allow the market to surge toward the 2003 all-time high of 124-10. T-bonds find near term support at the June low of 115-26 in confluence with an intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 115-24. If the market does not stabilize here it could plummet to a technical support zone clustered around the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 113-16, the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 113-06, the daily May low of 113-05, and the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113-01. After that T-bonds may be doomed to test another price support area between the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109-16 and this year's current weekly low of 109-00. The September NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term resistance at the current all-time high of 5-10 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at the psychological 6-00 mark. Near term daily support at the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 3-03 premium T-bonds. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1-235 premium T-bonds in confluence with the daily April low of 1-23 premium T-bonds. Open Interest is at the lowest level since January. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to move sideways to lower in July. Commercial interests are holding their smallest net long position since mid-February. Large traders are holding their largest net long position since then. Small traders are still holding a large net short position.

September T-notes find near term resistance between the weekly June high of 114-16 and the daily September contract high of 114-21. If the market can clear these highs expect it to test the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116-005. Further resistance is located between last year's weekly high of 117-31 and the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 118-08. Near term support is found between the daily June low of 112-035 and the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 111-305. A close below this price support zone could send the market down to the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-09. If T-notes slice thru this support area look for a sell off to the major double bottom on the weekly chart at this year's current weekly low of 107-265 and last year's weekly low of 107-255. A close break below it could doom the market to a collapse to the 105-00 level. Open Interest is at a five month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes are nearly oversold on the daily chart. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move slightly sideways in July. Commercials are now holding their smallest net long position that they have had yet this year. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their biggest net long position since mid-February. Small traders are holding their smallest net short position that they have had yet this year.

International bonds - September Canadian 10-year bonds find near term resistance at the all-time high of 117.03. Further resistance is at round psychological numbers such as 118.00, 119.00, etc. Near term support is at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 114.36. Further support is found between the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.86 and the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112.71.  September Euro bunds find near term resistance at the new all-time high of 124.06. Further resistance is at the psychological 125 mark. Near term support is clustered between the daily June low of 121.28, the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 121.18, and the weekly February high of 120.98 (old resistance). A break below this support zone could cause a decline to the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 119.39.  September London long gilts find near term resistance at the new contract high of 114.72. A break out above it could send the market on up to the psychological 115 area. If gilts can close above this number the market may be on it's way to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 117.16 in confluence with the weekly December 2003 high of 117.40. Near term support is at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.36 followed by the weekly June low of 112.08. If gilts do not stabilize in this area expect a decline to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.91 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110.95.  September Australian 10-year bonds find near term resistance at the daily contract high of 94.965 in confluence with the weekly June high of 94.99. Further resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 95.115. Near term support is at the daily June low of 94.695. A break below it could pull the market down to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.565. Further support is at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.305.  September JGB's  (Japanese gov't. bonds) find near term resistance at the new contract high of 141.35. A strong close above it could keep this market running to the psychological 142.00 mark followed by the August 2003 reaction high of 142.50 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 142.50. Near term support is at the daily June low of 139.59. If this low is broken it shouldn't be too difficult for JGB's to decline to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 138.22. Further support is at this year's current weekly low at 137.22.

Currencies - The US dollar index finds near term resistance at last week's new thirteen month high of 90.66. Further resistance is at last year's high of 92.50. If the buck does not stop here it could be on the way to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 96.07. Near term support is at last week's low of 89.60 (the US dollar index has made higher weekly lows for eleven consecutive weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed above almost every day for the last two months. A break below it could send the greenback to the daily June low of 87.05 or even down to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 86.77. Further support is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.37. Keep an eye on the 9-day Moving Average as it relates to the 18-day Moving Average. The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average for the last two months. If the 9-day Moving Average crosses over and closes back below the 18-day Moving Average it could indicate that the US dollar index is making a short-term trend change. Open Interest is high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the greenback is overbought on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move slightly lower in July. Commercial interests are holding a record size net short position. Large traders are holding a record size net long position. Small traders are holding their biggest net long position in a year.

The Canadian dollar finds near term resistance at last week's three month high of .8230. If the "looney" flies above it expect it to immediately test the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8272. Further resistance is clustered between this year's current weekly high of .8370 and the current major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .8386. Near term daily support is at last week's low of .8027. A break below it could encourage a decline to the contract low of .7875. If the "looney" breaks down to a new low it could drop to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7668 or the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7628. Open Interest is sitting flat at a multi-month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the "looney" is overbought on the daily chart and nearly overbought on the monthly chart. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar has a tendency to rally in the first week of July and then plummet for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since October 2000. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are the least bullish since January of 2002.

The Australian dollar finds near term support at last week's multi-month low of .7336. Further support is at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7212. If the Aussie does not stabilize near 72 cents look for a decline to the psychological 70 cent mark. Near term resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7587. A rally above it could pull the market up to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7741 or the major daily June high of .7770. If the rally does not end here the market could test the current major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .7852. Open Interest is at the lowest level since the beginning of the year. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Aussie is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to move sideways to lower in July. Commercials are holding their smallest net short position since September. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their smallest net long position since then. Small traders are the least bullish since September.

The September Canadian dollar/Australian dollar spread finds near term resistance between last week's two year high of .0826 (about eight and a quarter cents) premium Canadian dollar, the weekly 2003 high of .0833 (about eight and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar, and the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .0843 (just under eight and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. A strong close above this price barrier could send the spread on up to the psychological ten cent mark. Further resistance is found at the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .1139 (about eleven and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. Near term support is located between the June 1st reaction high of .0591 (just under six cents) premium Canadian dollar (old resistance) and the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at .0597 (about six cents) premium Canadian dollar. A break below it could contract the spread to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .0455 (about four and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at .0348 (about three and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar in confluence with the daily June low of .0354 (about three and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. If the spread does not stabilize here it may test the spread contract low of .0226 (two and a quarter cents) premium Canadian dollar.

The British pound finds near term support at last week's twenty-one month low of 1.7271 in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.7266. Further support is at the psychological 1.70 mark. If sterling does not stabilize here expect it to test the psychological 1.65 level. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 1.7614. (Sterling has made lower weekly highs for three out of the last four weeks). Bigger resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.8122. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8432. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The pound has a seasonal tendency to rally in July. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since March 2002. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position since January of 2002. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since April 2003.

The September Swiss franc finds near term support at last week's fourteen month low of .7689. Further support is at least a penny lower between the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7592 or last year's low of .7566. Near term resistance is at last week's high of .7844 (the Swiss franc has made lower weekly highs for eleven consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for two months straight). If the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average and last week's high is exceeded the market could be ready to stage a significant short-covering rally. If this occurs look for the Swissie to possibly run up to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8149. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8381. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Swiss franc is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually moves sideways in the first half of July and then rallies for the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding a record size net long position. Large traders are holding the largest net short position since July 1999. Small traders are holding the largest net short position in four years.

The Euro currency finds near term support at last week's multi-month low of 1.1900. Further support may not be found until last year's low of 1.1745 or even the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.1608. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 1.2074 (the Euro has made lower weekly highs for eleven consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for over two months). If the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average and the Euro closes above last week's high the market could be ready to make an explosive bear market rally. This could take the Euro back up to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2583. Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.3004. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, the Euro should decline in the first and last week of July and rally in the two weeks between.

The Japanese yen finds near term support between last week's eleven month low of .008940 and the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .008928. A break below it could take the market to last year's low on the weekly chart at .008710. If the yen does not establish support here expect a decline to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008351. Near term resistance is at last week's high of .009049 (the yen has made lower weekly highs for three out of the last four weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly two months). If the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average and the yen can clear last week's high look for a quick run to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .009293. Further resistance is found between the daily June high of .009485 and current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009511. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The yen has a seasonal tendency to move sideways to lower in July. Commercial interests are net long over 50,000 yen contracts. They were only this bullish in April and back in August of 2003. Before that they haven't been this bullish since early 2001. Large traders are holding one of the largest net short positions in years. Small traders are neutral to bearish.

Metals - August gold finds near term support at last week's one month low of $422.30. A drop below it should allow the market to test the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $418.90 (gold has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average in four years!) or the contract low of $415.80. Just below this level lurks this year's current low on the weekly chart at $410.10. A break below this support zone could take the legs out from under the market and smash it down to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $378.30 or even last year's monthly low of $372.00. Near term resistance is at the daily June high of $444.20 followed by this year's current high on the weekly chart at $448.00. Further resistance is at this last year's weekly high at $456.00. Open Interest reached a three and a half month high. The Seasonal index shows that gold should move sideways in July. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since the low was made in February. Before that they haven't had this small of a net short position since the low was made in May of 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since mid-February. Small traders are neutral.

September silver finds near term support daily between last week's low of $6.86 and the daily May low of $6.85. Further support is at this year's low on the weekly chart at $6.35. If silver hits a new low for the year it could drop to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $6.085 in confluence with the weekly September low of $6.065. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $7.09 (September silver has made lower weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks) in confluence with the 18-day Moving Average it has closed below for nearly a month. A break out above this near term support could cause a rebound to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $7.36. Further resistance is at the daily June high of $7.67. Open Interest is high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that silver is recovering from oversold levels on the daily chart. Seasonally, silver should move slightly higher in July. Commercials are neutral. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral. Small traders remain neutral as well.

September copper finds resistance at the current contract high of 157.40. Further resistance is at the all-time high of 163.00. A break out above it could send copper on up to the psychological 170 area. Near term support is at last week's low of 148.55. (September copper has made higher weekly lows for six out of the last seven weeks). Further support is at the July 1st reaction low of 146.00. A break below it should send the market right to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 141.40. If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to this year's low on the weekly chart at 132.35 or even the daily May low of 131.50. Open Interest is at a one month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Copper has a seasonal tendency to rally in July. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since June of 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are the most bearish in nearly a year.

Energies - August crude oil finds near term resistance at last week's new all-time high of $61.90. If this high is exceeded look for it to test the all-time high of $62.10 that was made in the all-session trading on July 7th. Crude oil went berserk in the all-session trading that day due to the bombing in London. The market made a range of nearly five dollars(!) when it spiked to $62.10 and then plummeted to $57.20. If this high is taken out there may be nothing to stop it from running up to the psychological $70 mark. Near term support is at last week's day session low of $59.05 (August crude oil has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the 9-day Moving Average closes below the 18-day Moving Average and August crude oil breaks below last week's low the market could be ready to tank and drop to technical support clustered between the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $53.96, the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $53.63, and the daily June low of $53.05. A weak close below $53 could allow crude oil to slide to the daily May low of $49.05 or even the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $48.52. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-May. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should move slightly higher in July. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position since September of 2003. Large traders are holding the largest net short position since September of 2003. Small traders are neutral to bearish on crude oil.

August Unleaded Gas finds resistance at last week's new all-time high of 186.00. Further resistance lurks at the psychological 190 mark. A strong break out to above this level could allow gasoline to quickly test the psychological 200 area. Near term support is at last week's low of 165.30 (August gasoline has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for over a month). If the 9-day Moving Average closes below the 18-day Moving Average and August gasoline takes out last week's low expect it to immediately plunge to the daily June 30th reaction low of 155.50. Further support is located between the daily May low of 139.30 and the weekly May low of 137.70. If these lows are broken it could send the market tumbling to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 133.21. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gasoline is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, gasoline should move slightly higher for the first half of July and then decline for the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since January. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

August natural gas finds near term resistance at last week's high of 7.770. Further resistance is at the daily June high of 7.850 in confluence with this year's current high on the weekly chart at the same price. If this level is exceeded look for August natural gas to test the contract high of 8.070. Further resistance is at the weekly late November high of 8.230. Near term support is at last week's low of 7.250. (August natural gas has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks). Further support is at the June 30th reaction low of 6.910 followed closely by the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 6.855. If the market does not stabilize here it could decline to the daily May low of 6.240. If this low is broken look for a decline to the weekly May low of 6.030. Open Interest is sitting flat at a high level. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to decline in July. Commercial interests are the biggest net long position since January. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are still holding a very large net long position.

Meats - August live cattle find near term support between the June 30th reaction low of 79.00 and the daily February low of 78.55. Further support is at the contract low of 77.70. If August live cattle breaks to a new contract low it could quickly hit the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 76.25. If the market does not stabilize here it could plummet to the 2004 weekly low of 72.65. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 80.95 (August live cattle has made lower weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since late May). If the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average and cattle exceeds last week's high a short-covering rally could immediately take this market to resistance at the big gap on the daily chart between 81.20 and 82.00 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 82.00. If August live cattle does not back down from this level look for it to make it's way to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 83.85. Open Interest is at a six and a half month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cattle is near oversold on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should rally from late June thru mid-August. Commercials are neutral to bearish. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a large net long position. Small traders covered a small amount of their biggest net short position that they have had in several years.

August feeders find near term resistance at last week's high of 112.75. Further resistance is at the contract high of 113.92. If the market breaks out to a new contract high it could run to last year's all-time high on the weekly chart at 118.70. Near term support is at the daily June low of 106.85. A break below it could cause a waterfall decline and take August feeders down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 103.40. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 100.52. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that feeders are nearing overbought territory on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, feeders should move higher in July. Commercial interests are neutral on feeders right now. Large traders are still holding a very large net long position. Small traders are still holding the biggest net short position since September of 2003.

August lean hogs signaled that the bear market may be over for now. Last week the 9-day Moving Average closed above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since mid-May and the market rallied to a one month high. If the market can get past last week's high of 69.10 it could surge to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 72.07. Further resistance is at a big gap on the daily chart between 73.15 and 74.00. Near term support is located between the daily June low of 64.00 and the daily December low of 63.55. Further support is at the psychological 60 mark. Open Interest is at a one month high. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to drop in the first half of July and then rally in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding a new record net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding their biggest net short position since January 2004. Small traders are still holding a very large short position.

Grains - August soybeans finds near term resistance at last week's high of $7.26. A rally above it should allow the market to test the contract high of $7.55. If August soybeans reach new contract highs it could easily hit the psychological eight dollar area. Further resistance is at the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $8.48. Near term support is at the daily June low of $6.61. A break below it should spill the beans to the daily May low of $6.07 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.03. A break below six bucks could take the market right down to the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $5.614. Open Interest is at a one month low. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans usually move sideways to slightly higher in the first half of July and then declines sharply in the second half of the month. Then the beans usually get crushed during the last few trading days of June and the first couple of trading days in July. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since June 2004. Large traders are holding the largest net long position since May 2004. Small traders covered more of their large net short position.

August soy meal finds near term resistance at last week's high of $227.80. Further resistance is at the contract high of $237.50. A break out to new contract highs could keep the market running right on up to the psychological $250 level. Near term support is at the daily June low of $202.50. A break below it could allow meal to visit a technical support cluster between the daily May low of $187.20, the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $185.60, and the daily April low of $183.70. If the market does not stabilize here expect a decline to the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $171.50. Open Interest is at the lowest level since late May. Seasonally, soy meal should move sideways to slightly higher in the first half of July and then decline sharply in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the largest net short position in eleven months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since May 2004. Small traders are holding the largest net long position since July 2004.

August bean oil finds near term resistance at last week's high of 25.68. Further resistance is just above it at the contract high of 26.20. A break out to new contract highs could quickly send bean oil up to the weekly August reaction high of 26.82. Further resistance is at the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 28.93. Near term support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 23.55 in confluence with the June 30th reaction low of 23.50. A break below it should send the market down to the daily May low of 21.95 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 21.91. Further support is at the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 20.75. Open Interest is pulling back off of a four month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that bean oil is near overbought territory on the weekly chart. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to move sharply higher in the first half of July and then drop in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are neutral to bearish on bean oil. Large traders are neutral. Small traders are neutral to bullish.

September corn finds near term resistance between last week's high of $2.444, the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $2.462, and the contract high of $2.462. A break out above this price barrier could send corn screaming to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.802. Near term support is at a big gap on the daily chart between last week's low of $2.302 and $2.26. If this gap is filled expect September corn to test the daily June low of $2.19 in confluence with the daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $2.186. Further support is at the contract low of $2.112. A break to new contract lows could drive this market all the way back down to last year's weekly low of $1.91. Open Interest is dropping from the all-time high established in late June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that corn is near overbought territory on the daily and weekly charts. The Seasonal index shows that corn should decline in July. Commercials are neutral to bullish. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral. Small traders covered more of their large net short position.

September rice finds near term daily support at last week's new contract low of 6.30. Further support is at the psychological 6.00 mark. A close below this number could pressure rice down to the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 5.115. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 6.60 (September rice has made lower weekly lows and lower weekly highs for five consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-May). If the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average and last week's high is conquered September rice could rally to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 6.95. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.35. Open Interest is at the lowest level since early April. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that rice is oversold on the daily and weekly charts. Seasonally, rice should move sideways in July. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since May 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since January 2004. Small traders are back to neutral on rice.

September oats finds near term resistance at last week's new contract high of $1.756. If the market exceeds this price it could easily hit this year's high on the weekly chart at $1.776. Further resistance is at last year's weekly high of $1.85 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.854. If oats do not back off from this level they could challenge the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.992. Near term support is at last week's low of $1.66 (September oats have not been able to break below a previous week's low for eight consecutive weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-May). If the 9-day Moving Average closes below the 18-day Moving Average and September oats break last week's low the market could end up getting slammed to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.514. If the market does not stabilize here expect a decline to the current daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $1.446. Open Interest recently hit the lowest level since early January. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that oats are overbought on the daily chart and nearing overbought on the weekly chart. Oats have a seasonal tendency to move sideways in the first half of July and then decline in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since December. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are liquidating some of their large net long position.

September wheat finds near term resistance at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.54 in confluence with the daily May high of $3.56. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $3.654 in confluence with a gap on the daily chart between $3.644 and $3.674. If the gap is filled September wheat has a shot at testing the contract high at $3.80. Near term support is at the June 30th reaction low of $3.29 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.284. Further support is at the daily June low of $3.204. If September wheat slips below this low expect it to also challenge the daily May low of $3.114 or even the contract low of $3.082. Open Interest recently hit an all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should trade in a sideways range in July. Commercial interests are holding a near-record size net long position. Large traders are holding a huge net short position. Small traders are still holding a sizable net short wheat position.

Softs - September coffee finds near term support at last week's nearly six month low of 104.00. Further support is at the daily January low of 101.00 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 100.50. If September coffee does not stabilize near the one dollar mark it could drop to the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 92.65. (Coffee has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since November of 2003). Near term resistance is at last week's high of 108.00 (September coffee has made lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows for the last four weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above for about a month. If the market can perk up above this near term resistance look for a rally to another technical resistance cluster between a gap on the daily chart between 118.50 and 119.30, the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 119.40, and the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 120.10. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 128.90 in confluence with the daily June high of 130.00. Open Interest is at the lowest level since November. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that coffee is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, coffee should move sideways to lower in July. Commercials are now holding the smallest net short position since early November. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since mid-November. Small traders are neutral.

September cocoa finds near term support at last week's new contract low of $1,377. Further support is at last week's one year low on the weekly chart at $1,372. A weak close below these two lows could cause cocoa to plunge to the 2004 double bottom on the weekly chart at $1,299 and $1,300. Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1,567 followed by the daily June high of $1,594. If the market can penetrate this barrier look for a rally attempt to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,684 or even the daily April high of $1,705. Open Interest is at the lowest level in over two months. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is oversold on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to rally in July. Commercial are holding the smallest net short position since October. Large traders are holding the smallest net long position since September. Small traders are neutral.

September sugar finds near term daily resistance at last week's new four year high of 9.55. Further resistance is at the ten cent mark. A strong close above ten cents could allow October sugar to launch an assault on the weekly 2000 high of 11.40 in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 11.45. Near term support is at last week's low of 9.25 (October sugar has made higher weekly lows for eight out of the last nine weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-May). If the 9-day Moving Average closes below the 18-day Moving Average and the market drops below last week's low it could indicate a bigger decline is on the way. This should pull the market down to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 9.05. A close below nine cents could keep the market heading for the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 8.74 in confluence with the daily June low of 8.70. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 8.52. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should decline until in mid-July and then move higher for the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the largest net long position since the spring of 2004. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders are bearish on sugar.

September orange juice finds near term daily resistance at last week's new contract high of 108.40. A strong close above it could send the market soaring to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.40. Further resistance is at the psychological 120 area. Near term support is at last week's low of 100.90 (September orange juice has made higher weekly lows for the last four weeks) in confluence with the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed above for nearly a month straight. If this near term support is breached the market could decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 98.35 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 97.90. If the market fails to stabilize here it could plummet to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 92.15 in confluence with the daily May low of 91.40. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Seasonally, OJ should rally in the first half of July and then decline in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in just over a year. Large traders are liquidating a lot of their large net long position. Small traders are the least bullish since August of 2003.

October cotton finds near term daily resistance at last week's nearly two month high of 55.45. If this high is exceeded the market could rally to the contract high of 58.50. Further resistance is at this year's current weekly high of 60.50. Near term support is at last week's low of 52.90. (October cotton has made higher weekly lows for the last four weeks). A drop below it could cause a decline to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 51.40. If the decline does not end here the market could hit the daily June low of 48.90. A break below this low may initiate a sell off to the daily contract low of 45 cents. Open Interest is at the lowest level since February. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cotton is nearing overbought territory on the daily chart. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to move lower in the first half of July and then sideways for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since February. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral on cotton again.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2004 Pearce Financial, LLC
Archived Editorials

CONTACT INFORMATION
Pearce Financial, LLC
(800) 800-1399
Email l Website

Futures trading involves risk and is not necessarily appropriate for all investors.
Notice & Disclaimer