The September NASDAQ 100 finds near term resistance at the daily July high of 1627.50. A rally above it should allow the market to hit this year's current weekly high of 1643.00. If the NASDAQ 100 can take out this high look for an accelerated move to the weekly January 2002 high of 1717.00 or the weekly December 2001 high of 1738.00. Further resistance is at the psychological 1800 mark. Near term support is at the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed above most of the time over the last month. A close below it should cause a decline to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1545.90. If the NASDAQ 100 does not stabilize near this price it could be headed for the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1495.50 in confluence with the daily July low of 1491.00. A break below it could quickly take the market down to the all-session July low of 1465.00. After that the bulls have no technical reason to attempt another long position until the market nears support at the daily contract low of 1414.00 or even this year's current weekly low of 1397.00. Open Interest has been sitting flat at a low level for several weeks. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the NASDAQ 100 is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The NASDAQ 100 should move sideways for the first half of August and then stage a strong rally in the second half of the month with a sharp decline in the last couple of trading days of August. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position in four months. Large traders (hedge funds) are the least bearish since early January. Small traders are slightly bullish.

Interest rates - September T-bonds find near term resistance at the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above for a month followed by last week's high of 116-15. (T-bonds have made lower weekly highs for four consecutive weeks and lower weekly lows for three out of the last four weeks). A close above it could allow a rally to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 117-28. If the market can make it past this price it will face a bigger technical barrier clustered between the contract high of 119-23 on the daily chart, the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 119-24, and the June high on the monthly chart at 119-30. If T-bonds clear this wall of resistance look for the market to be catapulted to the 2003 all-time high of 124-10. T-bonds find near term support at the July low of 114-29. If this low is broken expect a decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 113-16 or even the daily May low of 113-05 in confluence with the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113-01. Failure to stabilize here could result in a sell off to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109-16 or this year's current weekly low of 109-00. The September NOB spread (T-notes vs. T-bonds) finds near term resistance at the all-time high of 5-10 premium T-bonds. Further resistance is at the psychological 6-00 mark. Near term daily support is at the daily July low of 4-02 premium T-bonds. A drop below it could easily take the spread to the current daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 3-03 premium T-bonds. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1-235 premium T-bonds in confluence with the daily April low of 1-23 premium T-bonds. Open Interest is at a one year low. T-bonds have a seasonal tendency to move slightly higher for the first half of August and then go sideways for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding their biggest net long position since April. Large traders are holding their smallest net long position since May. Small traders are still holding a near record net short position.

September T-notes find near term resistance at the 18-day Moving Average that it has not closed above for a month followed by last week's high of 111-22. (T-notes have made lower weekly highs for four consecutive weeks and lower weekly lows for three out of the last four weeks). A strong close above it could send notes up to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113-07. Further resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 113-27 in confluence with the June 27th reaction high of 114-00. If rally does not end here look for the market to challenge a bigger technical barrier at the weekly June high of 114-16 and the daily September contract high of 114-21. If T-notes break out of this level it could quickly hit the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116-005. Further resistance is located between last year's weekly high of 117-31 and the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 118-08. Near term support is at last week's three month low on the daily chart at 110-28. Further support is at the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110-09. If T-notes do not stabilize here they could drop to the major double bottom on the weekly chart at this year's current weekly low of 107-265 and last year's weekly low of 107-255. A break below it could smash T-notes down to the 105-00 area. Open Interest is at a six week high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that T-notes are nearly oversold on the daily chart. T-notes have a seasonal tendency to move sideways to slightly higher sideways in August. Commercials are neutral to bullish on T-notes. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral. Small traders are neutral as well.

International bonds - September Canadian 10-year bonds find near term resistance at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 116.20 in confluence with the daily July high of 116.23. A rally above it could send the market back up to challenge the all-time high of 117.03. A break out to new highs should send the market gunning for round psychological numbers such as 118.00, 119.00, etc. Near term support is found at the daily July low of 114.87 in confluence with the daily June low of 114.81. A break below these lows could initiate a decline to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.86 or the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 112.71.  September Euro bunds find near term resistance at the all-time high of 124.06. Further resistance is at the psychological 125 mark. Near term support is at the daily July low of 121.77. Further support is clustered between the daily June low of 121.28, the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 121.18, and the weekly February high of 120.98 (old resistance). If bunds do not stabilize in this area expect a quick decline to the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 119.39.  September London long gilts find near term resistance at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 113.80. A rally above it could allow the market to test the contract high of 114.72. If gilts hit a new high again they may face resistance at the psychological 115 area. Further technical resistance is at the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 117.16 followed by the weekly December 2003 high of 117.40. Near term support is at the daily July low of 112.32 followed by the weekly June low of 112.08. A break below these lows could cause a decline to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 110.91 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110.95.  September Australian 10-year bonds find near term resistance at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.85 in confluence with the July 29th reaction high of 94.87. A rally above this price level could allow the market to test the triple top at the daily contract high of 94.965 in confluence with the weekly June high of 94.99. If the market punches thru this barrier expect it to take on the major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 95.115. Near term support is at the daily July low of 94.655. Further support is at the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 94.565. If Aussie bonds do not hold at this level look for a break to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 94.305.  September JGB's  (Japanese gov't. bonds) find near term resistance at the contract high of 141.35. Further resistance is at the psychological 142.00 mark. If a market rally takes it past this number look for price resistance at the August 2003 reaction high of 142.50 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 142.50. Near term support is at the daily July low of 139.55 (September JGB's have made higher monthly lows for three out of the last four months and higher monthly highs for the last four months) in confluence with the daily June low of 139.59. A break below it could allow the market to test the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 138.22. Further support is at this year's current weekly low at 137.22.

Currencies - The US dollar index finds near term resistance at the July high of 90.66. A break out above it could send the greenback a couple of pennies higher to last year's high of 92.50. A strong break out above last year's high could launch a bull run to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 96.07. Near term support is at the daily July low of 88.15. (The US dollar index has only broken a previous month's low once this year). A break below it could send the greenback down to test the weekly 18-bar Moving Average that it has not closed below since March or even the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 86.77. Further support is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 84.37. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the greenback is overbought on the weekly chart. The Seasonal index shows that the dollar should move slightly higher in the first week and a half of August and then decline for the remainder of the month. Commercial interests covered some of their record size net short position but they are still extremely bearish on the dollar. Large traders sold a small amount of their record size net long position. Small traders are neutral.

The Canadian dollar finds near term resistance at the daily July high of .8333. Further resistance is just a hop, skip, and a jump away at this year's current weekly high of .8370 and the current major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .8386. A break out above this price level could allow the "looney" to test last year's nearly thirteen year high of .8530. Near term support is clustered between last week's low of .8056, the current minor weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8038, and the daily July low of .8027. A break below it could pull the rug out from under the market and send it down to the contract low of .7875. If the September Canadian dollar hits a new contract low it could hit the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7668 or the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7628. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-June. Seasonally, the Canadian dollar has a tendency to rally in a choppy fashion in August. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since early April. Large traders are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position since the end of November.

The Australian dollar finds near term resistance at the daily July high of .7665. Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7741 or the major daily June high of .7770. If the Aussie can exceed this price level it should be cleared for a run to the current major weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .7852. Near term support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7462. A break below it could allow the market to test the contract low of .7336. If the September Australian dollar hits a new contract low it may decline to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .7212. Failure to stabilize near 72 cents could result in a decline to the psychological 70 cent mark. Open Interest is at the lowest level since the beginning of the year. Seasonally, the Australian dollar has a tendency to move in a choppy sideways range during the month of August. Commercials are holding their smallest net short position in several months. Large traders (hedge funds) are the least bullish since last fall. Small traders are the least bullish since then as well.

The September Canadian dollar/Australian dollar spread finds near term resistance at the daily July high of .0834 (about eight and one-third cents) premium Canadian dollar in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .0843 (just under eight and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. A strong close above this price barrier could launch the spread to the psychological ten cent mark. Further resistance is found at the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at .1139 (about eleven and a third of a cent) premium Canadian dollar. Near term support is located at the daily July low of .0549 (about five and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. Further support is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .0458 (about four and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar. If the spread does not recover from this level look for it to hit the current daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at .0356 (about three and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar in confluence with the daily June low of .0354 (about three and a half cents) premium Canadian dollar.

The British pound tested support at the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement and held ...so far. A break below the daily July low of 1.7242 should take it right to the psychological 1.70 mark. Further support may not be found again until the psychological 1.65 level. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 1.7590 and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for the last month). If the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average and last week's high is exceeded the British pound could rally up to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.8017. A strong close above 1.80 may allow the pound to strengthen to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.8496. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sterling is still near oversold on the weekly chart. The pound has a seasonal tendency to decline sharply in the first week of August and then rally for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net long position since May of 2000! Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net short position in six years. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since March 2002.

The September Swiss franc finds near term support at July's fourteen month low of .7680. A break to new lows should pressure the market to test the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .7592 or even last year's low of .7566. If the Swissie does not recover at this level it could decline to the weekly November 2003 reaction low of .7247. Near term resistance is at last week's high of .7831 (the Swiss franc has made lower weekly highs for thirteen out of the last fourteen weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day for nearly three consecutive months). Further resistance is at the daily July high of .7915. If the Swissie can clear all of these short term hurdles it may be ready to tackle bigger resistance at the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at .8143. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at .8378. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Swiss franc is oversold on the weekly chart. The Seasonal index shows that the Swiss franc usually moves slightly lower for the first half of August and rallies for the second half of the month. Commercial interests are holding a new record size net long position. Large traders are holding the largest net short position since July 1999. Small traders are holding a new record size net short position.

The Euro currency finds near term support at the contract low of 1.1900. Further support is not spotted until last year's low of 1.1745 or even the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.1608. Near term resistance is at the daily July high of 1.2287. (The Euro has only broken a previous month's high once this year). A break out above it may spark a short-covering rally and send the market up to the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 1.2583. Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 1.3004. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the Euro is still near oversold on the weekly chart. Seasonally, the Euro should be very choppy in the first half of August and then decline sharply in the last half of the month.

The Japanese yen finds near term support at July's fourteen month low of .008844. Further support is at last year's weekly low of .008710. If the yen does stabilize somewhere in this area it could break down to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .008351. Near term resistance is at the daily July high of .009153. (The yen has only broken a previous month's high once in the last six months). The current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement sets resistance about a penny higher at .009234. If the yen can clear this hurdle look for a run to the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at .009474 in confluence with the daily June high of .009485. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that the yen is oversold on the weekly chart. The yen has a seasonal tendency to drop in the first week of August and then rally for the rest of the month. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net long position in nearly seven years! Large traders are holding a near record net short position. Small traders are neutral.

Metals - October gold finds near term support clustered between the daily July low of $421.40, the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near $420.00 (gold has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average in four years!), and the daily contract low of $419.50. A break below this support zone could immediately send the market to test this year's current low on the weekly chart at $410.10. A weak close below this low could be disastrous for the gold bugs as it would technically justify a free fall to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $378.30 or even last year's monthly low of $372.00. Near term resistance is at last week's high of $433.50. A break out above it could allow the market to test the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $437.50. If the rally does not end here it could allow the market to challenge the daily June high of $447.50 in confluence with this year's current high on the weekly chart at $448.00. Further resistance is at last year's weekly high at $456.00. Open Interest is almost at a two month low. The Seasonal index shows that gold should decline in the first week of August and then move higher for the rest of the month. Commercials are neutral. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral. Small traders are neutral.

September silver finds near term support at the daily double bottom between the daily July low of $6.85 and the daily May low of $6.85. A close below it could set a new contract low and could activate a decline to this year's low on the weekly chart at $6.35. If silver hits a new low for the year it could quickly accelerate it's descent to the intermediate weekly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $6.085 in confluence with the weekly September low of $6.065. Near term resistance is at last week's one month high of $7.27. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $7.36. If the market gets thru this retracement unscathed it may be able to rally to this year's double top high on the weekly chart between $7.63 and $7.64 in confluence with the daily June high of $7.67. Open Interest is still at a pretty high level but sitting flat. Seasonally, silver should move lower for the first half of August, bounce during the third week, and then drop again in the last week of August. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position in thirteen months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding one of their smallest net short positions since last summer. Small traders are neutral.

September copper finds resistance at last week's new all-time high of 165.40. If the market breaks out to new contract highs again it could be headed to the all-time weekly high of 168.90 or the psychological 170 area. Near term support is at last week's low of 160.15 (September copper has made higher weekly lows for nine out of the last ten weeks) and the 18-day Moving Average that it has closed above for most of the last month. A break below this short term support could allow the market to pull back to a bigger support level at the daily July low of 146.00. (September copper has only broken a previous month's low once in the last nine months). Further support is located at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 144.45 followed closely by the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 143.50. (Copper has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average in over two years). If the market does not stabilize here it could be ready for a decline to this year's current weekly low of 132.35 followed closely by the daily May low of 131.50. Open Interest is at a three month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that copper is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Copper has a seasonal tendency to drop sharply in the first half of August, make a small bounce in the middle of the month, and then spend the rest of August trading in a choppy sideways range. Commercials are neutral. Large traders (hedge funds) are neutral. Small traders are neutral.

Energies - September crude oil initially showed a small sign of topping when the 9-day Moving Average closed below the 18-day Moving Average for the first time since June 1st. If the market can take out the daily July low of $56.50 (September crude oil has only broken a previous month's low once this year) it could decline to the current intermediate daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $54.80 followed closely by the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $54.32. Further support is at the current intermediate weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at $53.63 followed closely by the daily June low of $53.35. A weak close below $53 could smash crude oil to the psychological $50 mark in confluence with the daily May low of $49.85. Near term resistance is at the contract high of $62.80. A break out to another new all-time high could take crude oil on up to the psychological $70 mark. If oil clears this level look for it to approach $75 in short order. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that crude oil is still overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that crude oil should move slightly higher in August. Commercial interests are neutral. Large traders are neutral. Small traders are neutral as well.

September Unleaded Gas finds resistance at the contract high of 178.00 followed by the psychological 180 mark. If the market exceeds these levels look for it to take on the all-time high on the weekly chart at 186.00. Further resistance is at the psychological 190 level. If gasoline prices do not retreat here they could easily hit the psychological 200 area. Near term support is at the daily July low of 158.60. (September gasoline has only broken a previous month's low once this year). A break below it could cause a decline to the psychological 150 mark. If September gasoline does not stabilize here look for a drop to the daily June low of 146.70 in confluence with the current daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 146.56. Further support is located between the daily May low of 138.00 and the weekly May low of 137.70. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that gasoline is near overbought on the weekly and monthly charts. Seasonally, gasoline should make a good run in August. Commercial interests are still holding an extremely large net short position. Large traders are sitting on a huge net long position. Small traders are neutral to bullish.

September natural gas finds near term resistance at the contract high of 8.135. Further resistance is at the weekly late November high of 8.230. If the market can clear these highs it could be on the way to the psychological 9.000 level. Near term support is clustered between the daily July low of 7.060, the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.000, and the June 30th reaction low of 6.980. Further support is at the psychological 6.500 level. If the market does not recover at this price it could visit the daily May low of 6.300. A weak close below this price could put natural gas in the tank and send it to the weekly May low of 6.030. Open Interest recently reached the highest level since May 2002. Natural gas has a seasonal tendency to rally for most of August and then drop hard during the last week of this month. Commercial interests are neutral. Large traders are neutral. Small traders are holding a near record size net long position.

Meats - October live cattle finds near term support at the daily July low of 80.50 in confluence with the daily February low of 80.55. Further support is at the daily December low of 79.55 followed closely by the daily November low of 79.30. A break to new contract lows could send October cattle down to the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 76.25. Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 83.30 in confluence with last week's high of 83.50. Further resistance is at the daily July high of 84.05. If this high is exceeded look for October cattle to head on up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 85.07. Open Interest pulled back slightly from a two month high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cattle is oversold on the weekly chart. The Seasonal index shows that cattle should rally until mid-August and then drop in the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the largest net long position since September 2000. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net short position since September 2000. Small traders are now holding the smallest net short position since November.

September feeders find near term support between the daily July low of 104.15 and the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 103.75. If the market does not stabilize in this area it may plummet to the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 101.32. Further support is at the daily February low of 98.25. Near term resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 107.40 in confluence with last week's high of 107.75. Further resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 109.40. If the rally does not end here September feeders may climb to the daily July high of 111.70. After that it may test the double top between the daily June high of 112.60 and the daily May contract high of 112.65. Open Interest is flat. Seasonally, feeders should rally in the first half of August and then decline in the second half of the month. Commercial interests are neutral. Large traders are the least bullish since March. Small traders are the least bearish since February.

October lean hogs find near term support between the daily July low of 56.20 and the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 55.97. A break below this support zone could take the market back down to the daily June low of 53.60. If this low is broken October hogs may decline to the monthly 2004 low of 51.75. Near term resistance is at the daily July high of 59.80. A break out above this high should allow the market to test the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 61.05. Further resistance is at the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 63.07. Open Interest is almost at a one month low. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that hogs are nearing oversold on the weekly chart. Hogs have a seasonal tendency to trade in a choppy sideways range during the month of August with a downward bias at the end of the month. Commercials are holding a new record net long position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a new record net short position. Small traders are holding their largest net short position since November.

Grains - September soybeans finds near term resistance at last week's high of $7.02. (September beans have made lower weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks). A rally above it should allow the market to test the daily July high of $7.42. After that it may test the contract high of $7.60. A break out to new contract highs could allow the beans to visit the psychological eight dollar area. Further resistance is at the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $8.48. Near term support is located between the daily July low of $6.634 and the daily June low of $6.54. A weak close below these lows could smash the beans to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $6.066 in confluence with the daily May low of $6.044. If September soybeans do not establish support around six bucks they could decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $5.652. Open Interest is at a two month low. The Seasonal index shows that soybeans usually move sideways to slightly higher in the first half of July and then declines sharply in the second half of the month. Then the beans usually trade in a choppy sideways range in August. Commercial interests are holding the biggest net short position since the spring of 2004. Large traders are still holding an extremely large net long position. Small traders are holding the smallest net short position since February.

September soy meal finds near term resistance at last week's high of $219.20. (September meal has made lower weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks). A rally above it could add another ten bucks onto the market and send it to the daily July high of $229.50. Further resistance is at the contract high of $238.50. If September meal hits a new high it could head to the psychological $250 level. Near term support is located between the daily July low of $207.00 and the daily June low of $202.60. A break below these lows could send meal down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $186.80 in confluence with the daily May low of $186.70. Further support is just below it at the daily April low of $182.80. If the market does not recover from this level it could shed another ten dollars and hit the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $172.80. Open Interest is at the lowest level since September of 2001. Seasonally, soy meal should move sideways in August. Commercials are still holding a very large net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are sticking with their largest net long position. Small traders are now holding the largest net long position since May 2004.

September bean oil finds near term resistance at last week's high of 25.17. (September bean oil has made lower weekly highs for four out of the last five weeks). A rally above it could allow the market to test the daily July high of 26.15 or even the contract high of 26.43. If September bean oil breaks out to a new high it could hit the weekly August 2004 reaction high of 26.82. Further resistance is at the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 28.93. Near term support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 23.73 followed closely by the June 30th reaction low of 23.60. If the market dives below this price level expect it to sink down to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 22.06 in confluence with the daily May low of 22.03. If September bean oil closes below twenty-two cents it may be destined to visit the major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 20.87. Open Interest reached a two month low. Bean oil has a seasonal tendency to move slightly higher in the first half of August and then drop in the second half of August. Commercial interests are holding one of the largest net short positions that they have had since spring of 2004. Large traders are holding their largest net long position since May 2004. Small traders are neutral to bullish.

September corn has been quite volatile over the last two months. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.494. If the market can get above it look for it to test the contract high of $2.63. A break out to new highs could easily send the market up to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $2.802. Further resistance is at the psychological $3 mark in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at $3.044. Near term support is at last week's low of $2.276. (September corn has only broken a previous week's low once in the last four weeks). A break below it could allow the market to slip down to the daily June low of $2.19. If this low is broken look for the market to test the contract low of $2.112. A break to new contract lows could cause a decline to last year's weekly low of $1.91. Open Interest is at the highest level in sixteen months. The Seasonal index shows that corn should rally sharply in the first half of August and then move lower for the second half of the month. Commercials are holding the biggest net short position in thirteen months. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the biggest net long position since then. Small traders are now holding their smallest net short position in five months.

September rice may have ended it's bear market. This was signaled when the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in two months and the market traded up to a one month high. If September rice takes out the daily July high of 6.820 it should test the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 6.95. A close above this price level could spark a rally to the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 7.35. Near term daily support is at the contract low of 6.30. If September rice breaks down to a new contract low expect it to decline to the psychological 6.00 mark. A close below this level would be bearish indeed and could pressure the market all the way down to the major monthly Fibonacci .786 retracement at 5.115. Open Interest is flat. Seasonally, rice should move lower during the month of August. Commercial interests are holding the smallest net short position since early March. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position in nearly three months. Small traders are holding the biggest net short position since October.

September oats signaled a trend change last week. The market broke a two week low for the first time since it was at contract lows back in May and the 9-day Moving Average closed back below the 18-day Moving Average for the first time in two months. September oats also fell below the major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement. A decline below last week's low of $1.624 should confirm the sell signal. If this occurs September oats could drop to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.54. Further support is at the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $1.462. Near term resistance is at the current daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.766. A rally above it could allow the market to challenge the contract high of $1.826 followed closely by last year's weekly high of $1.85 in confluence with the major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.854. If oats can make it past this gauntlet of resistance look for a run to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1.992. Open Interest is almost at a two month high. Oats have a seasonal tendency to decline in the first half of August and then move sideways to higher in the second half of the month. Commercials are neutral to bearish on oats at the moment. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the largest net long position since May of 2004. Small traders are holding the smallest net long position since December 2003.

September wheat finds near term resistance clustered between the daily July high of $3.54, the major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $3.54, and the daily May high of $3.56. A break out above this price zone should send the market up to the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at $3.654 in confluence with a gap on the daily chart between $3.644 and $3.674. Further technical resistance is not found again until the contract high of $3.80. Near term support is located between the daily July low of $3.234 and the daily June low of $3.204. Further support is found between daily May low of $3.114 and the contract low of $3.082. If September wheat hits a new low it could decline to the weekly May low of $2.964. Open Interest reached a new all-time high. The Seasonal index shows that wheat should post strong price gains in August. Commercial interests are still holding a near-record size net long position. Large traders continue to hold a huge net short position. Small traders are holding a near-record size net short wheat position.

Softs - September coffee finds near term support at the daily July low of 96.15 followed closely by the monthly 18-bar Moving Average near 93.50. (Coffee has not closed below the monthly 18-bar Moving Average since November of 2003). A break below it could quickly allow the market to test the psychological 90 cent mark. If coffee does not stabilize in this area it could be headed down to the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 78 cents. Near term resistance is at last week's high of 104.50 (September coffee has made lower weekly highs for six out of the last seven weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed below the 18-day Moving Average every day since mid-June). If the market can close above last week's high and the 9-day Moving Average closes back above the 18-day Moving Average perhaps a short-covering rally will push it up to test technical resistance at the daily July high of 110.00 (September coffee has made lower monthly highs for four consecutive months) in confluence with the current major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 110.55. A break out above this high could give the market enough incentive to rally to the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 114.55. Further resistance is at the current major weekly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 120.65. After that coffee could set it's sights on the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 125.90. Open Interest is sitting flat at low levels. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that coffee is oversold on the daily chart. Seasonally, coffee should move lower until mid-August and then rally for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding the smallest net short position since early November. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding the smallest net long position since then. Small traders are neutral.

September cocoa signaled that the down trend is over when the 9-day Moving Average closed back above the 18-day Moving Average and the market traded at the highest price it had seen in nearly a month. If the market can take out last week's high of $1,480 it should go right on up to the current minor daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,511. Further technical resistance is at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at $1,567 followed by the daily June high of $1,594. If September cocoa can break past this price barrier it could make an explosive move up to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at $1,684 or even the daily April high of $1,705. Near term support is at the current contract low of $1,377 in confluence with this year's current weekly low of $1,372. If cocoa breaks to a new low for the year it could plummet to the 2004 double bottom on the weekly chart at $1,299 and $1,300. Open Interest is at the highest level since mid-June. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that cocoa is still near oversold on the weekly and monthly charts. Cocoa has a seasonal tendency to decline for most of August and then make a strong rally during the last week of this month. Commercial are holding the smallest net short position since July of 2004. Large traders are holding the biggest net short position since then. Small traders are neutral.

September sugar finds near term daily resistance at last week's new four and a half year high of 9.99. A strong close above ten cents could catapult October sugar up to the weekly 2000 high of 11.40 in confluence with the major monthly Fibonacci .618 retracement at 11.45. Near term support is at last week's low of 9.76 (October sugar has made higher weekly lows for five out of the last six weeks) and the 9-day Moving Average /18-day Moving Average crossover level. (The 9-day Moving Average has closed above the 18-day Moving Average every day for two and a half months). If the 9-day Moving Average closes below the 18-day Moving Average and the market closes below last week's low it could indicate that this strong bull market is about to see a sizable set back. This could lead to a quick decline to the July 21st reaction low of 9.35 in confluence with the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 9.32. A clean break below this price level could knock the market all the way back to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 8.91. Failure to stabilize here could result in a decline to the current major daily Fibonacci .786 retracement at 8.61. Open Interest hit a new all-time high. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that sugar is overbought on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The Seasonal index shows that sugar should move higher for the first week and a half of August and then plummet for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding a near-record size net short position. Large traders (hedge funds) are holding a new record size net long position. Small traders are holding the biggest net long position in five months.

September orange juice finds near term daily resistance at last week's high of 99.30. (September OJ has made lower weekly highs for three consecutive weeks). A rally above it could allow the market to test the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 103.75. If the rally does not end here it could challenge the contract high of 108.40. A break out to new contract highs may squeeze the bears in this market hard enough to prompt a rally to the major monthly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 112.40. Further resistance is at the psychological 120 area. Near term support is at the daily July low of 96.15. (September orange juice has made higher monthly lows for five out of the last six months). If the market breaks last month's low it could plunge to the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 92.15 followed closely by the daily May low of 91.40. If the market does not establish support here it may be headed to the major weekly Fibonacci .382 retracement at 86.50. Open Interest is flat. The %R overbought/oversold indicator shows that OJ is still near overbought on the monthly chart. Seasonally, OJ should rally sharply for the first half of August and then decline for the rest of the month. Commercials are holding a large net short position. Large traders are sitting on a big net long position. Small traders are the least bullish in about two years.

October cotton finds near term daily resistance at the current major daily Fibonacci .382 retracement at 51.98 in confluence with the huge daily chart gap between 51.90 and 52.90. If the market can manage to fill this gap it could gather enough strength to test the current major daily Fibonacci .618 retracement at 54.47. Further resistance is at the daily July high of 55.45. A good strong close above this high could cause October cotton to launch an assault on the contract high of 58.50. Near term support is at the daily July low of 47.95. A break below this low could send it to the daily contract low of 45 cents. A break to new contract lows could cause October cotton to test this year's weekly low of 42.40 followed closely by last year's weekly low of 42 cents. Open Interest has been sitting flat at low levels for the last two months. Cotton has a seasonal tendency to move lower for the first half of August and then make a strong run for the rest of the month. Commercials are the most bullish since the beginning of the year. Large traders (hedge funds) are net short. Small traders are neutral to bearish.

Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in all commodity trading. The data contained are believed to be reliable, but have not been independently verified by Pearce Financial. Accordingly, such data cannot be guaranteed as to reliability, accuracy, or completeness, and as such are subject to change without notice. Pearce Financial will not be responsible for any indirect, compensatory, or consequential damages, including loss of profits which may result from reliance on this data. Pearce Financial and/or its Principals and employees may or may not follow strictly any or all of the trading recommendations contained herein. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

© 2004 Pearce Financial, LLC
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